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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Economic Outlook: Current Administration vs. Congressional Budget Office / Economics / Government Spending

By: Asha_Bangalore

The current administration and the Congressional Budget Office project a considerable reduction of the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2012 and 2013 (see Chart 1). The current administration predicts the federal budget deficit to decline to 7.0% of GDP in 2012 from 10.9% in 2011 and further reduction to 4.6% is anticipated for 2013. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) predictions show the federal budget deficit also dropping to 7.0% in 2012 from 9.8% in 2011. The CBO expects the budget deficit to stand at 4.3% of GDP in 2013.

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Economics

Monday, February 14, 2011

Economists Lost in a Maze of Money Aggregates? / Economics / Money Supply

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the most important concepts in economic theory is the quantity of money. However, when going from theory to practical application, things get messy. In the real world, it's not obvious how to count up the amount of "money" in the economy at any given time.

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Economics

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Two Roads Out of Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Shamus_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent events in Washington, D.C. should provoke fear and outrage in the average American worker. As the jobs recession staggers on, politicians and labor leaders alike seem bizarrely distanced from reality, unable to advance any ideas that remotely correspond to the basic demands of those tens of millions of unemployed, under-employed, or poorly paid workers.

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Economics

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Ten Reasons Why it is So Difficult to Find a Job in America Today / Economics / Unemployment

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHave you been unemployed lately? If so, then you probably know how frustrating it is to try to find a job in the United States today. It now takes the average unemployed worker about 33 weeks to find a job. There are millions of Americans that have not been able to find a full-time job even after searching hard for an entire year. Some areas of the United States have been devastated so badly by the economic downturn that they are starting to resemble war zones. Unless you have been there, it is hard to even try to describe the extreme frustration that one feels when you are unable to pay the mortgage and feed your family. It can be absolutely soul-crushing.

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Economics

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Widening of U.S. Trade Deficit Partly Reflects Jump in Oil Imports / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $40.6 billion in December from $38.3 billion in the prior month.  Exports (+1.8%) and imports (+2.6%) of goods and services advanced in December.  Petroleum imports (+12.2% in real terms) made up a large part of imports in December. 

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Economics

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Evidence Supports Benign Near Term U.S. Inflation Trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation is not the headline story of 2011; albeit a few glaring monthly readings due to higher food and energy prices are possible.  On what grounds can we be sure of this claim?  First, the current readings of inflationary measures are below levels consistent with price stability.  The FOMC's preference is 2.0% or slightly below 2.0% inflation readings.  As shown in Chart 1, inflation measures have posted gains below 2.0% in recent monthly reports and projected growth of the economy in 2011 suggests a benign inflationary environment. 

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Economics

Friday, February 11, 2011

In the Midst of the Big Bang of 2008, Economic Collapse Has Already Occurred / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Mac_Slavo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the 1930’s Georges Lemaître presented the theory that our universe started with a Big Bang. For the better part of the 20th century, it was assumed that the Big Bang event took place in a matter of a few seconds and sent the necessary elements for everything from magnetism to stars to life flying throughout the universe.

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Economics

Friday, February 11, 2011

QE2 Sets Off Inflation Alarms / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEver since he launched the second round of his bond-buying program (QE2), Ben Bernanke has been on a roll. The S&P has gained 10 percent and the economic data has improved dramatically. Manufacturing and retail have rebounded, consumer confidence has started to brighten, and personal consumption (PCE) is on the rise. Car sales, hotel occupancy and exports are all up, too. Even the banks seem to be more eager to lend than they were just a few months ago. Only housing is still in the doldrums and the Fed chairman probably has something up his sleeve for that, too.

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Economics

Friday, February 11, 2011

Decoding the Truth About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Daughty

Proving once again that investing in fixed-yield bonds when the foul, filthy Federal Reserve is creating so much money (so that their governments can deficit-spend it!) is a stupid, stupid, stupid idea because inflation will result, Agora Financial's 5-Minute Forecast newsletter reports that "Already since October, the rate on the 10-year has jumped from 2.4% to 3.6% - a 50% increase." Yikes!

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Economics

Friday, February 11, 2011

Weather Distorts Initial Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 36,000 to 383,000 during the week ended February 5.  A large part of the nation experienced severely inclement weather during this week, which suggests that the initial jobless claims numbers of the past week did not capture the entire count.  Next week's report should give a better read on initial jobless claims.  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, dropped 47,000 to 3.888 million after a decline of 74,000 the prior week. 

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Economics

Friday, February 11, 2011

Inflation - Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Economies / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England (BOE) and The European Central Bank (ECB) have chosen to stand pat after their recent policy meetings.  However, inflation readings in the UK and the Euro area are problematic, particularly in the UK.  President Trichet of the ECB, last week, presented a less concerned stance about inflation compared with his comments in prior weeks.  Inflation in the Euro area (2.2%) is slightly higher than the target rate of 2.0%. 

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Economics

Friday, February 11, 2011

Escaping the Great Depression and Extending the Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Casey_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoug Casey,  The Casey Report writes: Here at Casey Research, our view of the Great Depression of the 1930s is a little different from that of most people. In our eyes, Franklin Roosevelt wasn't a hero, he was a villain. Nearly everything he did served to extend and deepen the economic downturn.

With the exception of supporting the 21st Amendment for the repeal of Prohibition, Roosevelt's involvement in the economy was an unmitigated disaster. But in popular memory, that failure is obscured by U.S. success in WW2, over which Roosevelt presided.

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Economics

Thursday, February 10, 2011

U.S. 9% Unemployment Rate is a Statistical Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Submissions

Greg Hunter writes: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest unemployment figures last Friday.  There was a stunning drop to 9% from 9.4%.  How did that happen?  Is the economy really getting better or is the government up to its old statistical tricks.  According to the mainstream media, the economy is getting better and the so-called recovery is alive and well.  

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

G7 Banana Republics ON the Money Printing Inflation Road to ZIMBABWE! / Economics / Inflation

By: Ty_Andros

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe global financial cataclysm is mushrooming with every stroke of the keyboard at a central bank, with the issuance of new debt to cover old debt, and with the illusion of creating money out of thin air.  It is all debt, nothing else, with no final settlement…. EVER.  You exchange the money you work for and save and buy a government bond; they print the money to pay you back and PRETEND you have been paid.  The situation is just as Von Mises outlined:

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

How to Beat the Looming Inflation Tsunami / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Inflation is coming our way. Make no mistake about it.

This insidious increase in the general level of prices is currently rattling around in the world's emerging markets - causing China and Brazil to put up interest rates and India to try and suppress it with price controls. It's beginning to appear in Britain, which had a similar crash to the United States, but where the currency has been somewhat weaker.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Phony Official Inflation Statistics Produced by Dirty Rotten Scoundrels / Economics / Inflation

By: Rob_Kirby

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe purpose of this paper is to draw particular attention to the recent disparity in crude oil prices – namely the difference between two benchmarks - West Texas Intermediate [WTI] and Brent [North Sea] Crude.  Historically the price of WTI trades at a premium to lesser quality Brent North Sea Crude.  This paper lays out the case that the extreme, existing, observable price discrepancies is likely the result of engineered and arbitrary market manipulations – to be discussed below. Such arbitrary price manipulations in the oil markets impact negatively on the oil exporting economies and show favor to oil importing economies.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Bullish Small Business Optimism Index and Opposing Views from the Fed / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe NFIB survey results of small businesses for January 2011 point to an improved outlook.  The composite index moved up to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in the prior month.  The level of the composite index is close to the pre-recession reading of 94.4 in November 2007 (see Chart 1). 

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

China, Inflation and Gold, China created paper money and paper money then created Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRalph T. Foster in his invaluable book, Fiat Paper Money, The History and Evolution of Our Currency, writes that paper money made its first appearance in Szechwan, a remote province of China early in the 11th century.

Because of a shortage of copper coins, provincial officials had begun circulating iron coins; but the difference in value and weight between the two metals caused unexpected problems.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Changing Perception of the U.S. Economy Food for Thought / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe 2-year Treasury note is trading around 0.78% today, from a low of 0.54% on January 28. The 10-year Treasury note yield has moved up to 3.67% from 3.36% in the same period (see Chart 1). The bond market essentially signals the U.S. economy is turning around and is most likely to establish sustained growth in 2011. A part of the bullish sentiment commenced after Bernanke's speech in the last week of August 2010 when the Fed signaled that a second round of support was on its way.

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Economics

Monday, February 07, 2011

China a Trade Growth Machine Investors Ignore at their Own Risk / Economics / China Economy

By: Justin_John

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are very few macro points in the world that needs to be understood and analysed more than the story of the dragon and its kids. Infact for a generation to come, we may be telling the story of the great dragon which breathed fire and consumed the eagle in the sky. What happens to the dragon after that is the plot where almost everyone has a different ending.

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