Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Misleading Jobless Claims Economic Data and Recessions / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Tim_Iacono
One of the many "green shoots" that has popped up recently for the U.S. economy is the possible peaking of weekly jobless claims, what has been increasingly referred to as a "reliable" indicator for the end of recessions since 1967 when this data was first collected. The chart below, similar to the one published by CR in this item from a couple weeks ago shows the correlation.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Emerging Markets Recovering First From the Economic Crisis / Economics / Articles
By: Pravda
The world community has been eagerly devouring the good news for the past few days. The news comes from the East. First of all, China gives us hope that the crisis is going to end. Analysts speak about the inspiring perspectives of all BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). Experts say that the countries have no debt burden, which is obviously their main advantage. Nevertheless, despite the market growth, the real conditions of the Russian economy are far from being favorable.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Stock Markets See Patches of Blue Sky in Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: PaddyPowerTrader
So much for the great recession. The improvement in risk appetite has continued unabated into this week. Firmer US housing data, construction spend and Chinese PMI numbers (which rose for the first time in 9 months), combined with declining bank worries and easing swine flu concerns boosted risk appetite. To top that off, Research In Motion and Intel were upgraded and Sprint Nextel earnings beat estimates. But it appears to this writer that euphoria has got the better of common sense.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Wages Contract in US, UK, Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating trends in wages, disposable income, and ability to service debt.
Monday, May 04, 2009
Extremely High Debt Levels Ensure Subdued Economic Recovery in 2010 / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Late last week a letter from Jim Welsh crossed my desk. I started reading and found myself being pulled through his very thoughtful letter. I have not met Jim, but think this letter is worthy of an Outside the Box. Jim Welsh of Welsh Money Management has been publishing his monthly investment letter, "The Financial Commentator", since 1985. His analysis focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, and how policy affects the economy and the financial markets.
Monday, May 04, 2009
Gold-Exchange Standard, Gold, and Monetary Freedom / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Michael S. Rozeff writes: Two major government economists, Christina D. Romer and Ben Bernanke, have done influential research on the Great Depression. Both implicate the State-run gold standard of that era, which differed from the pre-1914 gold standard, as a major culprit in the Great Depression. (See here and here.) Their work parallels that of other economists such as Barry Eichengreen and Peter Temin on the negative role of the interwar gold exchange standard. There is an emerging or existing consensus among economists about the negative effects of the gold-exchange standard.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 03, 2009
U.S. Economic Recovery Lies Hidden in a Zipper / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
Many people prefer not to spend their money on new clothes. Purchasing new clothes is not considered essential these days, especially for those who have to spend several minutes or even hours thinking what they are going to wear today. However, the current state of affairs in the jeans-making industry shows that better times for fancy clothes are just around the corner.
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Sunday, May 03, 2009
When Will the Economy Recover from Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Standard & Poor’s: S&P/Case-Shiller - home prices still declining “Data through February 2009, released today [Tuesday] by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 10 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 15 reporting declines in excess of 10% versus February 2008. For the first time in 16 months, however, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City composites did not set a new record.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Recession Ending and Stocks Sell in May and Go Away? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
Sell in May and Go Away?
The End of the Recession?
Is the US Consumer Back?
A Dangerous End Game
The old adage that one should "sell in May and walk away" has been around for years. I mentioned that bromide about this time last year, urging readers to head for the sidelines if they had not already done so. I was also suggesting a strategic retreat in August of 2006 (after which the markets went up 20% before plummeting). In this week's letter we look at the actual data and offer up a fresh viewpoint. Then we turn our eyes to the recent GDP numbers, which were awful, though many took comfort in the apparent rise in consumer spending. Are Americans back to their old ways? It will make for an interesting letter.
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Saturday, May 02, 2009
Lessons From the Great Depression, Next Great Depression II? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Submissions
Phill Tomlinson writes: A great deal can be learnt through history. In a practical sense its completely useless, as it merely just documents past events, but past events can help explain current and possible future events. If you can never get to grips with a subject matter it is best to look at history to try and to identify possible similarities. I have taken some quotes from a historical book and I think a lot of the quotes below could be said of the current situation we find ourselves in.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Real Economy Continues to Sink Despite Economic Stimulus and Bear Market Rally / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The economy continued to shrink in the first quarter of 2009 at an annual pace of 6.1 percent, making it the worst recession in more than 50 years. Gross Domestic Product slipped into negative territory from January to March for back-to-back quarters of negative 6 percent growth. The news of falling GDP was preceded on Tuesday by a dismal housing report which showed that housing prices have continued their historic downward plunge with only modest improvement. Since their peak in July 2006, housing prices have dropped 31 percent, falling 18.6 percent in the last year alone. The rate of decline has decelerated slightly but--on their present trajectory--prices are on target to tumble 45 to 50 percent from their 2006 highs. Another 20 percent loss in home equity means another $4 trillion loss for US homeowners.
Friday, May 01, 2009
The Fallacy of Free Trade / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Christopher_Quigley
"The causes of wealth are something totally different from wealth itself. A person may possess wealth i.e. exchangeable value; if, however, he does not possess the power of producing objects of more value than he consumes, he will become poorer. A person may be poor, if he, however possesses the power of producing a larger amount of valuable articles than he consumes, he becomes rich.
Friday, May 01, 2009
The State of the U.S. Consumer / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andy_Sutton
This week’s surprise Consumer Confidence report gives us yet another reason to take a step back and survey the landscape. Much of the recent focus has deservedly been on unemployment while little focus has been given to other aspects of the consumer and more importantly, the overall state of the consumer’s mind. Clearly there are several enigmas manifesting themselves in both confidence and spending patterns. This week we’ll take a closer look at some of these issues, and probably generate quite a bit of debate as well.
Friday, May 01, 2009
The Great Asset Bubble Built on Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: Dr_Martenson
Where are we going, and what lies next? To address these questions, we need to know how we got here in the first place.
I want to share with you an interesting observation that I think will provide great clarity and insight into our current predicament, as well as indicate that our recovery, such as it is, will be protracted and incomplete.
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Friday, May 01, 2009
China Profits From the Global Financial Crisis / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: BEIJING, The People’s Republic of China – For the debt-ridden West, the global financial crisis has been an unmitigated disaster, forcing the so-called developed economies to take on financial commitments that will serve as burdens for years, if not for generations.
Friday, May 01, 2009
Economy in Meltdown due to Imploding Derivatives Monster and Toxic Debt / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Sharon_Kayser
The Swimming Naked Prophecy - It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked - Warren Buffet (2007). It surely kind of prophetic to hear a market guru, like Buffett, embracing such a philosophical approach two years ago as the Berkshire profits plunged 96% in early March amid the dysfunctional world economy. It is even more baffling to hear him blame the derivatives after admitting that the firm' s equity holdings had lost 44% because of them. One has to wonder exactly which game is he playing. In 2003, he was among the very first experts to warn about CDOs callin derivatives *financial weapons of mass destruction* and *time bombs*.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Annoying Fiscal and Monetary Policy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Michael S. Rozeff writes: The terms "fiscal and monetary policy" annoy me. The fact that fiscal and monetary policy even exist annoys me. They are the terms that mean government control over the economy. That annoys me too.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Volcker Says U.S. Economy is ‘Leveling Off’ even though GDP Shrinks Most in 50 Years / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
GDP shrank at an annual rate of 6.1% according to the First Quarter 2009 Advance GDP Report.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
FDR's New Deal vs Obamanomics / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Stephen_Lendman
With good reason, progressive economists reflect positively on Roosevelt's New Deal even though:
-- it failed to end the Great Depression;
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
After Iceland’s Economic Collapse, Election Not about Left and Right / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Global_Research
Prof. Michael Hudson writes: I can hardly believe the news reports on Iceland’s election on Saturday, April 25. Evidently in an attempt to interest readers in an island few know or have cared much about, the papers tried to attract reader attention by talking about the “left” unseating the “right.” No doubt this political swing is going to continue for many years to come throughout the world. But for Iceland’s voters the issues were more pragmatic. Reckless neoliberal bank privatization is indeed the main problem, but the proposed responses are not inherently left or right as such. At issue is whether voters have become so desperate in the wake of crooks wrecking the financial system that they will seek a more stable currency (the euro) by joining Europe on terms that forfeit control over Iceland’s North Atlantic fishing waters and burden taxpayers with unprecedented public debt to compensate British, Dutch and other European bank depositors and speculators for their losses?