Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Asian Economies, Where Are We Compared to Financial Crisis Sept 15, 2008? / Economics / Asian Economies
By: John_Mauldin
The developed world seems to be focused on Europe, and while the next crisis in indeed brewing there, we must not forget that Asia is a large part of the future and major contributor to world GDP. My friends at GaveKal are based in Hong Kong and have staff in most Asian countries or are in them on a regular basis, so I read their Asian views with interest. Today’s Outside the Box is their latest Five Corners – Asia edition, where they look at China, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as Asian growth, contrasting it to that of the "developed world."
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
AVA Investment Analytics Global Economic Analysis / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
The incompetency of Washington was most recently demonstrated by the debt ceiling drama. Now the dog-and-pony show staged by the ECB, EU and IMF has added to waning consumer and investor sentiment across the globe to create a crisis in confidence. The timing of this charade could not have been worse, as this unnecessary turn of events has hit the global economy during a period when it was predetermined to weaken on its own force due to the depletion of stimulus funds. As a result of these seemingly intentional destructive actions, most of the economic gains made as the result of tax subsidies and bailout funds since the financial crisis of 2008 have been erased.
Monday, October 10, 2011
China Economy Going Bust: Tic Toc / Economics / China Economy
By: Kel_Kelly
China is in the process of allowing its currency to rise. The reason for this is to address the worsening inflation rates in the country. Allowing the yuan to rise will indeed stop, or slow, inflation, but the way this fix works is not the way that is usually assumed. Neither will the effects of this policy be what most observers assume, i.e., just milder inflation. Instead, it will be an outright economic bust.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Hypothetical U.S. Employment and Unemployment Charts from the Atlanta Fed / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are checking out an interesting "what if" post by Dave Altig, senior vice president and research director at the Atlanta Fed. Please consider Two more job market charts
Read full article... Read full article...Payroll employment growth has averaged about 110,000 jobs a month since February 2010, the jobs low point associated with the crisis and recession. This growth level compares, unfavorably, with the 158,000 jobs added per month during the last jobs recovery period from August 2003 (the low point following the 2001 recession) through November 2007 (the month before the recent recession began). One hundred and ten thousand jobs a month compares favorably, however, to the 96,000 job creation pace so far this year.
Sunday, October 09, 2011
The Paradox of Deflation Facing Global Investors / Economics / Deflation
By: David_Knox_Barker
The primary purpose for markets is to allow buyers and sellers to reach a deal, strike a price. Anything that distorts this purpose, leads the world inexorably toward crisis and chaos. Free markets best determine prices based on how many sellers there are of goods, services and assets and how much they have available to sell, and of course how many buyers there are and how much those buyers want to buy and are willing to pay. Truly free markets balance supply and demand. The economic calculation problem means governments cannot determine accurately how to intervene.
Sunday, October 09, 2011
Warning U.S. HyperInflation Ahead / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Seth_Barani
Money Supply M2 has expanded at Warp-9 within the past few months, based on Federal Reserve Data released on Sep.30th. In fact, the ratio of M2 to M1 has set a World Record, exponentially growing to over 5:1 (M2 is near $9.6 Trillion, over 12% growth this year so far, projected to show 15% growth in one year, while M1 has remained constant near $2 Trillion.)
Saturday, October 08, 2011
U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.1% in September, unchanged from August / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.1% in September, unchanged from August. Cycle high jobless rate for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +103,000 jobs in September vs. +57,000 in August. Private sector jobs increased 137,000 after a gain of 42,000 in August. Addition of 99,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of July and August.
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Friday, October 07, 2011
U.S. September Non-Farm Payrolls Report in Pictures / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
A remarkably 'clean' report with the only anomalies being a lower than normal Birth-Death imaginary jobs adjustment from the BLS, which subtracted 43,000 jobs, and a seasonality adjustment that appeared a little on the high side.
An exogenous factor was the addition of 45,000 striking telecommunication workers who returned to their jobs. So the organic jobs growth was weak.
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Thursday, October 06, 2011
The Way Out of Our Economic Mess / Economics / US Economy
By: Terry_Coxon
Terry Coxon, Casey Research writes: "A rock and a hard place" is a long-running theme of Casey Research publications. It refers to the dilemma the US government has wandered into with its continued policy of rescue inflation. The "rock" is what will happen if the Fed pauses for long in printing still more money – the collapse of an economy burdened by an accumulation of mistakes that rescue inflation has been keeping at bay. The "hard place" is the disruptive price inflation that becomes more likely (and likely more severe) with every new dollar the Fed prints to keep the effects of those mistakes suppressed.
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
High Unemployment Means More Job-Killing Taxes / Economics / Unemployment
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The unemployment problem in this country has gotten so bad it's starting to sustain itself.
Essentially, high rates of unemployment have led to tax increases that are further suppressing hiring - thus making an already-ugly unemployment problem even worse.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2011
The Great Default and the Great Divergence / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_North
The #1 Historical Question Is Unanswered
I do not refer here to a historical question raised by a book said to be revealed by God. I refer to a question that historians have struggled with for a century without any agreed-upon solution. It is this:
What happened between 1780 and 1820 that produced compound per capita economic growth in Britain and the United States of approximately 2% per year?
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Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Bernanke Presents a Pessimistic Economic View, Reassures Fed Stands Ready to Support / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
At the outset, Bernanke’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee listed positive developments of the current economic recovery – improvement of factory production, narrowing of the trade gap compared with the period prior to 2007, strong equipment and software spending, and a more sound banking and financial sector. The rest of the testimony was significantly more subdued and pessimistic. He reiterated his observations from last month that consumers are very cautious in their spending decisions as their net worth has dropped and that households “continue to struggle with high debt burdens and reduced access to credit.” More importantly, Bernanke sees “more sluggish job growth in the period ahead.” He also noted that the FOMC has revised down its projections of GDP growth. The weak housing market was also part of the testimony. In the prepared testimony and Q&A session, Chairman Bernanke stressed the importance of solving housing market issues.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2011
War and Inflation in US History, Not Worth a Continental / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Mills
Inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply - the rate of inflation is determined by the quantity of goods vs. the money supply - more money chasing the same amount of, or fewer goods, causes price increases. The higher the price increases the higher the rate of inflation is said to be.
Wars cause inflation - war affects everything from international trading to labor costs to quantity of available consumer goods to product demand because governments:
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Tuesday, October 04, 2011
The China Economic Model Is Unsustainable, Just a Redder Version of Keynesianism / Economics / China Economy
By: Douglas_French
While the pols in Europe endlessly consider how they will paper over their financial crisis, "ring fence" Greece and the other PIIGS pass austerity programs, and still get reelected, some speculate that perhaps China will step forward to bail out the eurozone.
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
This Economist is Forecasting a Recession, And He's Never Been Wrong / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
The U.S. economy is "tipping into a new recession" and there's nothing President Barack Obama or the U.S. Federal Reserve can do to prevent it, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Now, if you're wondering why you should believe this prediction ahead of others then there's something you should know: According to The Economist, Achuthan's predictions on the direction of economy - either toward recession or recovery - have never been wrong.
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Monday, October 03, 2011
Why The Inflationists PROBABLY Have It Wrong, For Now / Economics / Deflation
By: David_Haas
Many people are trying – with increasing desperation – to discern the future and plan correctly for the economic environment we’re most likely to find ourselves experiencing.
My continued bets have been that deflation will prevail, at least in the early years of the great collapse, and nothing has yet occurred that changes my view.
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Sunday, October 02, 2011
Further Recession and Financial Turmoil in America and the EU / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bob_Chapman
Remember that $400 billion increase in debt recently enacted? Well it is gone and it only took six weeks. Washington has quite a talent for spending debt, which is other people’s money. Not satisfied the Senate, as we reported, added in another $500 billion. The media covered up the increase in debt by making a major issue of the President’s speech concerning jobs.
Sunday, October 02, 2011
U.S. Consumer Spending in August Puts Q3 Change at Tepid Mark / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending held steady in August inclusive of a 0.1% increase in spending of durable goods and services and a 0.4% drop in purchases of services. Chairman Bernanke’s concern about the decelerating trend of consumer spending is justified. Real consumer spending grew only 1.77% from a year ago and real disposable income also shows a loss of momentum (see Chart 4). The July-August consumer spending numbers point a tepid increase in consumer spending in the third quarter, roughly 1.5%. This is slightly higher than the 0.7% increase in the second quarter but it is not a barnburner by any means.
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Sunday, October 02, 2011
Infrastructure Spending – What’s Not to Like? / Economics / Infrastructure
By: Asha_Bangalore
The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) published a study last month pointing out the cost of failure to address the infrastructure needs of the nation. The study concludes that failing to invest in America’s roads, bridges, and transportation system would cost the nation $3.1 trillion in lost GDP, 877,000 in lost jobs, and a significant reduction in productivity by 2020. The graphic below is a summary of the impact of the failure to address the nation’s surface transportation infrastructure.
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Sunday, October 02, 2011
The Economic Recession As Forecasted By The Consumer / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Tony_Pallotta
“A vocabulary of truth and simplicity will be of service throughout your life.” — Winston Churchill
I prefer to keep things as simple as possible. Take for example the $14 trillion US economy. The most basic of tools, a survey has proven to be an excellent indicator of what otherwise could be a very complex analysis, forecasting economic growth.
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