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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Protectionism

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, September 13, 2018

The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

In few months, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. Who are the policymakers behind this reversal. Wat is their agenda? And why is steel their common denominator?

Recently, the Trump administration hammered a revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by pressuring Mexico and then strong-arming Canada to the tentative deal. The White House’s objective is either to redefine the terms on the basis of U.S. economic leverage and unipolar geopolitics or - if that is not acceptable to other parties - to withdraw the U.S. from such FTAs. It is not “either you are with us or against us,” as in the Bush years, but “America First - or nothing.”

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Economics

Thursday, September 13, 2018

How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump tariffs are based on flawed doctrines, which could penalize the US as much as its trade deficits.

Last Friday, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days.

If the tariff stakes will increase up to $500 billion, it could penalize Chinese GDP by 1%, but the US GDP, which is relatively more vulnerable, would suffer a net impact of 2% of GDP. In dollar terms, the consequent tariff damage could prove even higher than the current U.S. trade deficit with China and thus double the damage.

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Politics

Monday, September 03, 2018

Toward ‘America First’ NAFTA / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Despite the Trump administration’s frantic last-minute efforts to hammer the NAFTA agreement, the attempt failed within the US timeline, so the talks continue. Why is the revised deal so important to the White House?

Last Friday, the trade talks between the United States and Canada broke off without an agreement.

The negotiations on the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are not over, however. The talks continue and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet again Canada’s foreign minister Chrystia Freeland.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

TRADING THE GLOBAL FUTURE - Bad Timing / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

This is the first of a three-part series.
In less than two years, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. That is both a reflection of and a catalyst for the further erosion of globalization.

Yet, these trade wars did not come out of the blue. The path to the tariff wars is becoming increasingly difficult to reverse or slow down, and the timing of the trade war could not be worse. It is taking place at a historical moment when global economic integration could further stagnate or even fall apart.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

How US Trade War Is Spreading from Goods to Services / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump tariff wars are entering a new, far more dangerous phase. As the White House is expanding its tariff wars, collateral damage is about to spread from goods to services – much of it in the U.S.

After months of trade threats, the Trump administration announced its 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports effective in early July, while threatening levies on another $16 billion of imports. To defend its sovereign interest, China responded with 25% tariffs on $34 billion of US imports and recently imposed an additional tariff of 25% on $16 billion of US imports effective on August 23.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 20, 2018

Surviving a Trade War in the Age of Trump and Brexit / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

President Donald Trump keeps surprising the world about this policies. The stance that the US took for years is now changing under his administration. Countries that used to be allies of the United States are now seemingly considered enemies. He has launched trade wars against Canada, China, and even the EU.

Brexit is another problem that has a global impact. There is no final decision yet on how Brexit will happen, and what terms the EU and the UK will agree. These significant global changes have impacted a lot of business owners, especially those who are just starting out.

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Politics

Tuesday, August 07, 2018

Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese / Politics / Protectionism

By: BATR

The establishment culture indoctrinates the public with the mythical virtues of 'Free Trade', while omitting the destructive record of the globalist economy that has ruined American prosperity. Prosperity is not defined as cheap consumer items. Economic success that creates wealth and achieves affluence requires that a society can reach a lasting production capacity to fill ongoing demands, primarily from domestic output. Trade as long as it attains a positive balance of payment result is fine. However, when a country continues to bleed money to purchase goods that were previously produced domestically, the economic treasure of the importing country sinks into the quicksand of a quagmire.   

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 27, 2018

Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s not a shade of a doubt that I’m not an expert on tariffs, trade barriers and subsidies, and I’d be the last to suggest any such thing. But I can read. Still, do correct me if I’m wrong anywhere. The whole field is so complicated -no doubt often on purpose- that there’s always the possibility that there are side issues involved for which one would need to actually be an expert.

But still. Now that EU chief Jean-Claude -‘When it becomes serious, you have to lie’- Juncker is due to arrive at the White House soon, I looked at some of the items involved. Last night Trump said that all tariffs, barriers and subsidies should be dropped between the EU and US. Why the TTiP doesn’t come anywhere close to that is anyone’s guess. Too complicated for the boys and girls?

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Politics

Thursday, July 26, 2018

Will China End U.S. Trade War With Nuclear Financial Option / Politics / Protectionism

By: Chris_Marcus

One of the reasons why it has seemed so bizarre that the United States would engage in a trade war with its largest creditor in China, is that China has a move that the United States simply can't defend against.

In terms of any sort of engagement between the United States and China, for at least the last decade or so, it's always seemed to me that China has an incredibly large amount of leverage over the United States. To the degree that if push comes to shove, China has available actions that the U.S. simply has no answer to.

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Politics

Friday, July 13, 2018

Tariffs “Trump” Tax Cuts / Politics / Protectionism

By: Michael_Pento

China appears to have more to lose from a trade war with the US simply because the math behind surpluses and deficits renders the Bubble Blowers in Beijing at a big disadvantage. When you get right down to the nuclear option in a trade war, Trump could impose tariffs on all of the $505 billion worth of Chinese exported goods, while Premier Xi can only impose a duty on $129 billion worth of US exported goods--judging by the announcement on July 10thh of additional tariffs on $200 billion more of China’s exports to the US we are well underway towards that end. However, this doesn’t mean China completely runs out of ammunition to fight the battle once it hits that limit.

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Politics

Thursday, July 12, 2018

The Rise and Fall of Global Trade – Redux / Politics / Protectionism

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Ilargi: Someone linked to this almost 8 year old article from Nicole (July 19 2010), on Twitter. And yes, it’s even more relevant now than it was when she wrote it. So here’s a re-run:

… the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 in the US, which drastically raised tariffs on imports, lead to retaliation by trading partners, and the resulting trade war dropped global trade by 66% between 1929 and 1934.

One more comment from me: Trump may be on to something with some of his tariff actions, but he risks having the US run headfirst into the brittleness of just-in-time supply lines.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

As Trade Wars Broaden, Europe Is the Key to Future / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the Trump White House has started the “biggest trade war” in history, diplomatic activity is escalating from the transatlantic axis to China and the EU – America’s next tariff target.

After the meeting of China and Central and East European (CEE) countries in Sofia, Bulgaria, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang rushed to the fifth round of intergovernmental consultations between China and Germany.

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Currencies

Monday, July 09, 2018

How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies / Currencies / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Not so long ago, Asian currencies anticipated depreciation pressures to increase, due to monetary normalization. Yet, it is the trade wars that are now penalizing all currencies, particularly in exporting economies.

In January, I gave a global economic briefing on the outlook of the Philippines in the Nordic Chamber of Commerce in Manila. At the time, the peso was still about 50.80 to U.S. dollar. Among other things, I projected the peso to soften to 54 or more toward the end of the year, which I considered largely the net effect of normalization in advanced economies, elevated trade friction worldwide, as well as fiscal expansion (the Duterte investment program).

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Trade Tariff War Akin to Raising Taxes, Recession Looms / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.

Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Frank Holmes: I'm great, and it's great to be chatting with you about this languishing gold market.

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Politics

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

G7 Globalist Fear Trump Trade Reset / Politics / Protectionism

By: BATR

President Trump has announced that the U.S. piggy bank will no longer subsidize or be sucked dry to finance a pack of ungrateful allies. Keeping the Socialist EU afloat and putting up with backstabbers like Canada or allowing Japan to roll up massive trade surpluses must stop. The latest rumblings out of the UK are that all efforts are working overtime to nix the will of the Brit public from the Brexit vote. As for corporatists within the United States, the bulwark of opposition to Trump's push to demand reciprocal treatment from "so called" trading partners means an end to the gravy train of plundering American workers and ripping off a viable domestic economy.

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Politics

Saturday, June 09, 2018

Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks / Politics / Protectionism

By: Richard_Mills

What’s the best way to deal with a teacher who comes into your school and starts threatening all the other teachers? Well if you’re Liberal party leader, and Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, the answer is to lecture the bullying teacher about how his approach isn’t the way to get along with all the other teachers. If you’re the bully, you’re not going to listen to that, and instead, will react to the head teacher’s scolding by insulting him, or maybe putting him in a headlock. If that doesn’t work in getting your way, you could try to turn the other teachers against each other, dealing with them separately instead of with the whole teaching staff. “Divide and conquer” works well for bullies.

This little analogy is how we might look at the way Donald Trump has manipulated Canada and Mexico into a situation where not only have they failed to recognize and counter a typical Trump “art of the deal” strategy in coming up with a renewed tri-lateral trade agreement, but where the two countries may now be forced to negotiate separate trade deals with their largest trading partner. How did we get here and what does this ratcheted-up trade war mean for Canada, the United States and investors? This article will address these questions.

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Politics

Monday, June 04, 2018

US Tariffs vs China, EU, NAFTA – and the Rest of the World? / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

After months of trade war with China, US subjected its EU and NAFTA partners to steel and aluminum tariffs. EU leaders missed a year seeking appeasement with Trump’s protectionism. It’s time to defend the multilateral trading regime.

Unsurprisingly, the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico have lambasted the US steel and aluminum tariffs. European Commission (EC) President Jean-Claude Juncker criticized Trump’s tariffs and pledged retaliation in due time. French President Emmanuel Macron and German government spokesman called the move unlawful. In Britain, the Brexit proponents and opposition quickly blamed each other for the tariffs. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the tariffs would “harm industries and workers on both sides of the Canada-US border.”

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Politics

Saturday, June 02, 2018

The EU Respond Angerly to Trump’s Steel and Aluminium Tariffs / Politics / Protectionism

By: Ben_Jardine

This week, we witnessed Trump’s introduction of new tariffs of 10% duty on aluminium and 25% duty on steel from the EU, Canada and Mexico. This seemed to be on the cards since Trump’s election manifesto, as he was trying to ‘Make America Great Again’.

Intriguingly, this disputed move goes against the recent growth in the US manufacturing sector at the start of the year, as according the Wells Fargo Securities analysts: "Hiring in the manufacturing sector has been solid this year as the industry has shaken off last year's commodity slump, the dollar has weakened, and global growth has strengthened." Therefore, the weakened US Dollar allowing trans-Atlantic growth to be made which boosted the American economy prior to the new tariffs being implemented today.  

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Politics

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

How China Can Respond to Trump’s Tariff Trade War / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the trade war against China, the White House’s “America First” advocates are relying on trade instruments that contained Japan’s rise in the 1980s. But China is not Japan. It has ten ways to hit back.

On Tuesday, China said it would impose anti-dumping duties on imports of U.S. sorghum. As the largest buyer of U. sorghum - about $1 billion annually - China holds substantial leverage. Currently, China relies almost solely on the US for its sorghum. As bilateral trade relations erode, that kind of reliance may soon be a thing of the past.

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Politics

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Time to Safeguard Global Free Trade / Politics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

For a year, President Trump has promoted global division and trade friction, while China has defended global trade and cooperation. It is time to defend the open, global economy.

If President Xi Jinping’s speech was highly anticipated in the Boao Forum, it was even more eagerly waited in Washington and Wall Street, as trade tensions have begun to penalize US markets.

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