Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs – The Mantra of the Current Season / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The unemployment rate of the U.S. economy in August 2011 stood at 9.1%, a far cry from the 4.4% jobless rate seen in the last business expansion which ended in December 2007. The current elevated level of unemployment after two years of economic growth is unprecedented in the post-war period (see Chart 1). The high for the unemployment rate in the post-war period was recorded during the 1981-1982 recession when it touched 10.8% in December 1982.
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Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Bernanke's Waterloo; Deflationary Collapse or Inflationary Disaster? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
The September Contrary Investor It's A Long Hard Road is an exceptional marriage of debt-deflation concepts, long-wave K-Cycles, credit cycles, and Austrian economic thinking. Here is a lengthy snip of several key points with permission.
Read full article... Read full article...If there has been one consistent theme since day one at CI, it has been our perhaps near myopic focus and focal point highlight of importance that is the macro credit cycle. Does this play into long wave and perhaps Kondratieff cycle or Austrian economics type of thinking? Call it what you will, but elements of all of these schools of thought very much overlap. Right to the point, we believe THE key thematic construct to keep in mind as a macro cycle decision making overlay and character point dead ahead is the now more than apparent collision of the generational long wave credit cycle with the current short term business cycle of the moment. Without trying to reach for melodrama, this is the first time a multi-decade long wave credit cycle has collided with the short-term business cycle since the late 1920’s/early 1930’s.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Europe's Economic and Debt Woes in Pictures / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Asha_Bangalore
Equity prices around the world declined today largely in response to the persistent debt crisis in Europe. Let us set the facts straight, Greece is a problem member of EU-27 but wiping out Greece from the European Union (EU) with a magic wand is not the solution. Central government debt of EU-26 as a percent of GDP is marginally different from that of EU-27 (see Chart 1). In other words, the EU’s debt woes will plague financial markets until a solid solution is put into place in the near term.
Saturday, September 03, 2011
U.S. August Jobs Report Means Odds of Additional Fed Policy Action Have Increased / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.1% in August, unchanged from July. Cycle high jobless rate for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: No change in August vs. +85,000 in July. Private sector jobs increased only 17,000 after a gain of 156,000 in July. Loss of 58,000 after revisions to payroll estimates of June and July.
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Saturday, September 03, 2011
Global Economic Recession, Right Here, Right Now! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's time to stop debating whether or not the US or Europe is headed into recession. The facts show the entire global economy is in recession.
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Friday, September 02, 2011
El-Erian Says Today's Employment Report is Grim and Scary / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian and Gene Sperling, director of the National Economic Council, spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu this morning about the unemployment report and the state of the U.S. economy.
El-Erian said that the unemployment report is “grim and scary” and that “hopefully it will ring alarm bells in Washington.”
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Friday, September 02, 2011
Nouriel Roubini 60% Chance of A Double Dip Recession 2012, China and Brazil Also at Risk / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: EconMatters
"We’ve reached a stall speed in the economy, not just in the U.S., but in the euro zone and the UK. We see probably a 60 percent probability of recession next year, and, unfortunately, we’re running out of policy tools.....and sovereigns cannot bail out their own distressed banks because they are distressed themselves."
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Nouriel Roubini "we're going into a recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bloomberg
Nouriel Roubini spoke to Bloomberg TV's Margaret Brennan today, giving his latest forecast for the U.S. economy, the European debt crisis and economic challenges in China.
Roubini told Bloomberg TV, "we're going into a recession based on my numbers" and that "we are running out of policy tools" as the U.S. and European governments no longer have the resources to bail out their troubled banks.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Monetary Tsunami Is Coming / Economics / Inflation
By: Frank_Shostak
In his speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 26, 2011, the Fed chairman disappointed most pundits. He did not promise another massive infusion of fake money, i.e., QE3. I suspect that a strengthening in bank lending is an important factor behind the Fed's decision to postpone the pushing of more money into the economy.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Seven Ways Washington Can Spur Private Sector Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The U.S. economy is sputtering, and it's no secret why: The government is standing in the way of private sector growth.
Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised down to 1.0%. That means the economy grew at an average rate of 0.7% in the first half. That's pathetic.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Catastrophic Economic Crunch Will Be Oil Mastitis: Set to Hit USA Just Like 2008 / Economics / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Everyone was waiting with baited breath for the news about QE-3. But perhaps the number to watch was Q-3 nominal GDP, coming soon!!
The important message Ben Bernanke had in Jackson Hole was that the Federal Reserve cannot, on its own, create economic growth in America (or jobs), simply by making it more or less attractive for banks to lend; and thus for Americans and foreigners to borrow. Or by printing money to buy over-priced toxic assets so the ATM’s still work, or to help the Treasury improve the structure of their debt, by buying long bonds real cheap from Bill Gross…Hey Bill, that was a patriotic thing to do!
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Tuesday, August 30, 2011
What's Going On With The U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
There's a very good post over at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis today. ("US in recession right here, right now") Blogger Mike Shedlock makes the case that the economy may already be in recession. It's all matter of whether if one uses the the consumer price index (CPI) or the the BEA's measure of price inflation to make their calculations. There's a fair amount of technical jargon to wade through in the article, but the charts are pretty persuasive and--if nothing else--they reinforce most people's suspicions that the economy is getting worse by the day.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
U.S. Consumer Spending Pickup in July Lacks Durability / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending increased 0.5% in July after holding steady in May and June. Consumer outlays of durables (+2.0%) raised the overall reading; it was largely an increase in purchases of cars (12.2 million vs. 11.6 million in June). The 0.5% gain in service expenditures reflects a big increase in health care expenditures. Purchases of non-durables declined 0.3% in July vs. a 0.4% increase in the prior month.
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Monday, August 29, 2011
How Canada Escaped the Global Recession / Economics / Canada
By: MISES
David Lee writes: Four months ago, Canadians emphatically renewed the ruling party's conservative mandate, handing Stephen Harper and the Tories the country's first majority government in over a decade. This victory was underscored by the humiliating decline of the Liberals — the country's "natural governing party" — who were displaced by a radical fringe party in their office of Official Opposition in the Canadian House of Commons. Adding insult to injury, the leader of the Liberals, former Harvard professor Michael Ignatieff, failed to win his own seat and was sent unceremoniously into political retirement.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Fed Can't Fix U.S. Economy Without Washington's Help / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has exhausted nearly all of its resources in trying to help the U.S. economy, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech Friday at Jackson Hole, WY.
Now it's up to the federal government to do its part by fixing U.S. fiscal policy.
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Monday, August 29, 2011
US In Recession Right Here, Right Now / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am amused by those who think a US recession will come within a year. Even more amusing are those who think a recession will not come at all.
The US is in a recession now. I am not the only one who thinks so.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Field Of U.S. Economic Dreams / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
"If you build it he will come." - Field Of Dreams
"We built it and he did not show." - US economic reality
The consumer driven recession has begun. Keeping it very simple of the four GDP components (consumer, fixed investment, government and net trade) the consumer has simply rolled over. In Q1 2011 the consumer contributed 1.46% to the 0.4% total GDP. In other words if it was not for consumer growth or even if .5% of that growth was removed the economy contracted in Q1 2011.
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Saturday, August 27, 2011
Global Economic Growth Stalls Amidst Debt Crisis, Austerity / Economics / Global Economy
By: Global_Research
Andre Damon writes: A new batch of economic figures released this week confirms a renewed economic downturn, amidst an intensified assault on jobs and living conditions internationally.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the gross domestic product of its member countries grew by only 0.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, dropping from 0.3 percent in the first quarter.
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Saturday, August 27, 2011
Bernanke Keeps Door Open for Additional Stimulus on Weaker Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Chairman Bernanke stressed that the Fed “has a range of tools that can be used to provide additional stimulus” but he was silent on specifics. He mentioned that the costs and benefits of these options were discussed at the August 9 meeting. These details will be available when minutes of this meeting are published on August 30. He reiterated parts of the August 9 policy statement noting that “the Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger recovery in a context of price stability.”
Saturday, August 27, 2011
The Fed Will Allow Business Cycle To Play Out Longer This Time! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The Federal Reserve played its part well, along with the Treasury Department, the White House, and Congress, in helping prevent the financial meltdown of 2008-2009 from turning the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007-2009 into the next Great Depression.
But its solo intervention with its QE2 quantitative easing program last year to boost the again faltering economy seems to have only delayed the business cycle.