Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Recession 2012 Recession is Probable / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Barry_Elias
A recession in 2012 is becoming more probable.
In an apparent attempt to camouflage the anticipated poor data, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) may employ a methodology that underestimates inflation and overestimates real Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
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Friday, August 26, 2011
U.S. Household Debt Deleveraging Metrics Raise Worrisome Questions / Economics / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household debt outstanding hit a peak of $13.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2008. This staggering amount of household debt was close to 100% of GDP of the nation (see Chart 1). Home mortgages and consumer credit make up household debt, with home mortgages accounting for roughly 75% of household debt.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Keynesian Economic Solutions - After Total Failure –Try, Try Again / Economics / Economic Theory
By: James_Quinn
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.” – John Maynard Keynes – The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Can China Save The World? Towards A New Economic Model / Economics / Global Economy
By: DK_Matai
As the West contemplates a new phase in the global financial crisis, China -- the second biggest economy on Earth -- appears to some executive decision makers to be well placed to sail through the doldrums of the global financial markets or even use her wealth to come to the rescue of the rich world. Is this wishful thinking or is it grounded in facts? Despite its rising pre-eminence on the world stage, China is unlikely to save the world if the West slides back into recession. Why?
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
GDP Statistic Is a Lie, Time for a New Measure of Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most commonly used measure of economic growth. But GDP isn't just inaccurate and misleading - it's the contrivance of Keynesian economists seeking to push their own, big-government agenda.
That's right. GDP is a financial ruse - the biggest of the past half-century. And it's time to move past it to another, more accurate measure of economic growth.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011
The Great Recession and Dynamic Economic Decision Making / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box is from my good friend John Silvia, the Chief Economist at Wells Fargo and fishing buddy in Maine. He has written a powerhouse book called Dynamic Economic Decision Making: Strategies for Financial Risk, Capital Markets, and Monetary Policy.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
The "Great Depression" and the "Great Recession" FAQ / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Asha_Bangalore
There have been frequent questions from clients and partners about the “Great Depression” and the recent recession, which is often called the “Great Recession.” Here are five important aspects that should help to put the two periods in historical perspective.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Do The Maths, Worlds Developed Nations are Insolvent / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – Let’s face it; many of the world’s ‘developed’ nations are insolvent and the writing is on the wall. Either these indebted states will default or they will try and inflate their currencies into oblivion.
As far as the US is concerned, it still has the privilege of owning the world’s reserve currency and its central bank can always create more dollar bills out of thin air. Thus, it is unlikely that the US will ever default on its debt obligations.
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Sunday, August 21, 2011
The “Treasonous” Fed, Recession of 2011? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The data this week was just ugly. Even the uptick in the leading economic indicators, seized upon by so many talking heads, must have a large asterisk beside it. This week we look at the increasing probability that we are headed for recession, and the follow-on implications. Then I take a perilous and speculative journey into the realm of the political, commenting on Texas (and my) Governor Rick Perry's rather interesting comments about the Fed and Ben Bernanke. There is a lot to cover, and lots of charts, so we will jump right in. But please read at the end about two events coming up in the next few months that you might be very interested in attending.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Localize Our Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Barry_Elias
Two centuries and a decade ago (in 1802), the third president of the United States, Thomas Jefferson, stated:
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property — until their children wake-up.”
Friday, August 19, 2011
Threat of Economic Stagflation Looms as Prices Rise Despite Bad Economy / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Few are willing to acknowledge the threat of stagflation, but reports showing inflation rising more quickly than expected - even as growth is slowing - indicate that this scourge of the 1970s may be stalking the U.S. economy.
Every economic report nudges the United States closer to the definition of stagflation - a condition marked by slow economic growth, high unemployment, and soaring prices.
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Friday, August 19, 2011
Could This Be the Beginning of a Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
I can’t remember how many times I have written that the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Well yesterday I was reading a post from a reader who is an economics professor and he told me that I was correct. We are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but what I was leaving out of that sentence was that we are the largest economy in the world. He told me that the true test is not how large our debt is, the true test is what is our nation’s debt is in relation to our Gross Domestic Product. He further wrote, citing the “CIA World Factbook” that the ratio of our debt to GDP is 53.9% and that figure puts us in 38th place in the ranking of countries in the world. He offered several examples. The dubious distinction of first place belongs to Japan whose debt to GDP is a staggering 225.8% and most surprising to me in 20th place was Germany whose debt to GDP was 78.8%.
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Friday, August 19, 2011
Record Bond Market, Debt Deleveraging Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: DK_Matai
Deflation is probably the last thing on anyone's mind. As a result of the latest financial markets plunge, gold has surpassed a new record of $1,820 per troy ounce. We all recognise gold as a hedge against inflation. In parallel, the government bond yields of a number of major countries including the US, UK, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland are at or near record lows since the Second World War, which means that their prices are at an all time high. For example, the bond yield on 10-year US treasuries fell to a record low below 2% today during intra-day trading. What is the significance of this record bond market?
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Friday, August 19, 2011
Could This Be the Beginning of a Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
I can’t remember how many times I have written that the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Well yesterday I was reading a post from a reader who is an economics professor and he told me that I was correct. We are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but what I was leaving out of that sentence was that we are the largest economy in the world. He told me that the true test is not how large our debt is, the true test is what is our nation’s debt is in relation to our Gross Domestic Product. He further wrote, citing the “CIA World Factbook” that the ratio of our debt to GDP is 53.9% and that figure puts us in 38th place in the ranking of countries in the world. He offered several examples. The dubious distinction of first place belongs to Japan whose debt to GDP is a staggering 225.8% and most surprising to me in 20th place was Germany whose debt to GDP was 78.8%.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 19, 2011
The Fed’s Focus is on Economic Growth Not Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Of the several economic reports published this morning, existing home sales data of July and the August factory activity report of the Philadelphia Fed take precedence over the July Consumer Price Index because inflation is likely to moderate if weak economic conditions persist in the near term.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
U.S. Sleep Walking Into Another Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Terry_Coxon
The rebound from the recent recession is the slowest economic comeback in living memory – so slow that some doubt whether it is happening at all. The recession bottomed (the economy stopped shrinking) in June 2009, so the recovery is now two years old. Here’s how things looked 24 months into recovery from the last four recessions.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Simple Device that has Spontaneously Revolutionized Life the World Over / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Devin Leary-Hanebrink writes: A few days ago I was sitting in the break room at work enjoying my lunch when I realized just how incredible the simple, everyday, run-of-the-mill vending machine truly is. For days I have watched people pour money into these simple machines without ever really paying much attention. Heck, I have used these things for the majority of my life and never even given them a second thought. What is truly impressive — no, utterly astonishing — is how such a simple device has spontaneously revolutionized life the world over without the direction of a single bureaucrat, academic, statute, or judicial opinion.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
U.S. Whole Sale Prices Inflation Lifted by Food and Tobacco / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods rose 0.2% in July after a 0.4% drop in the prior month. The 0.6% decline in energy prices provided a partial offset to higher prices of other items. Lower prices for gasoline led to the drop in the finished energy price index. An increase in prices of beef, veal, and fresh fruits led to the 0.6% jump in food prices during July, following a similar increase in the previous month. On a year-to-year basis, the finished goods price index has risen 7.2%.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Is The U.S. Price Index Inflating Real GDP? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
There is no shortage of correlations such as the one shown below (PPI VS real GDP) that brings into question the real GDP reported over the past two years. In other words real GDP appears somewhat inflated since Q3 2009. You can substitute PPI in the chart below and find many similar relationships or should I say "divergences from reality."
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Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Krugman's War Cry Won't Avert Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
Paul Krugman sounded the war cry this Sunday on Fareed Zakaria's program Global Public Square. After all, he asserted, only spending equivalent to another World War could lead us back to prosperity. That, and a healthy dose of inflation.Read full article... Read full article...