Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, July 29, 2013

How to Invest in the Future of Geothermal Energy / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Jason_Hamlin

Before you click away from this article in the belief that geothermal is just another “green” technology that can’t compete with coal or oil, consider the following…

Geothermal is a renewable energy source that is expected to grow fivefold in the next seven years and produces more than double the energy of solar and wind combined. And here is the real rub… unlike solar power, geothermal is cheaper to produce than coal, oil or other “dirty” sources of energy. The most common form of geothermal power costs about $64 a megawatt-hour, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, below the $78 for coal, $82 for onshore wind turbines and $142 for traditional solar panels.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Silver Price Behavior Change, Enough For A Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

One of the largest issues many have with technical analysis is linking an understanding of their fundamental “beliefs” with prices on a chart. By fundamental, we include simply the knowledge of any number of known factors, shortages, record buying of coins, people generally positive about the “news,” as a few simple examples. There is a need for a hand- to-eye type of association between existing fundamental “beliefs” and current prices.

Beliefs are formed opinions about reality, but not necessarily reality itself. Change the belief, and you change the reality. The current wide-spread belief is that there is a huge shortage in silver, relative to the demand. From that belief an expectation of higher prices arises. The reality is, for whatever reason, price has declined to levels that have surprised almost all who follow the silver market, and gold, as well.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Extreme Gold Market: Distortions Abound, Disappearing Supply Comex Near Future Shutdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The true Gold price is PP in the graph, while the phony price is P* since it is associated with supply shortage and excess demand. A picture might be worth a thousand words, but sometimes a picture requires a thousand words to explain its full meaning. The true Gold price is very much unknown, hotly debated, and unclear even to the professionals in the business of selling it in either small or large quantities. Tremendous variance in Supply across the world will become more common, seen as pockets today. The new wrinkle to float from the ether is the wide perception that the gold market is corrupt, that futures contracts are corrupt, that the official inventory accounting is corrupt, that the bond market behind the fiat currency system is corrupt, that the derivative market that supports the banking system is corrupt, that the bank asset accounting is corrupt, and that the leaders are members of a corrupt corporatocracy that hardly steeps in democracy. The perceptions toward corruption are fast changing.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Unusual Gold Rally is on the Cards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DailyWealth

Get ready for a rally in the most important ratio you're not following... the "gold-to-oil" ratio.

Most folks don't know about it, but there is an interesting world of trading ideas that can be termed "ratio trades." These aren't the conventional "buy a stock and hope it goes up" trades. They involve trading one asset against another asset. For example, one of the most important ratios in this group is the "gold-to-oil" ratio.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Bank of England May Have Directed Release of 1,300 Tonnes of Central Bank Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jesse

Although it is not been verified I thought this calculation by Alasdair Macleod was quite striking.

Based on recent figures from the Bank of England, it appears as though the Bank of England has directed the leasing of about 1,300 tonnes of central bank gold from their vaults in a four month period from March through June.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Big Profits in the Next Oil Boom, Time to Climb Aboard / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Rail transit is about to make you some big money...in oil.

That's why I'll be headed to Dallas in late August and Calgary mid-September for extensive meetings with all of the key players.

I can promise you, that in a hurry this is going to get a lot bigger.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Gold And Silver – Newton’s Third Law Is About Ready To (Over) React - Be Prepared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Our clarion call is for the physical market to soon takeover the actual price for buying and selling. When, we do not know? Timing is now less critical than actual possession, from this point forward.

The probability of a new low, in futures, may be 50-50. It was much higher, a month ago. The odds of successfully picking a bottom are remote. Not to pick on Richard Dennis, but he is a poster boy for losing big time when he tried to pick a bottom in sugar, to the extent of decimating one or a few of his funds. How hard could it have been to lose so much money buying sugar when it was under 5 cents, at the time?

Saturday, July 27, 2013

The Chart that Signaled the Bottom in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Some readers may be sick of seeing this chart but I believe there is no more important chart when assessing or describing the current market (in gold stocks). From a weekly price perspective the recent bear market labeled E finished down 65%. It was almost identical in trajectory, time and price to C, the 1968-1970 bear market and fairly close to D, the 1974-1976 bear market. Both of those bear markets were followed by tremendous advances which took the 1960-1980 secular bull market to new all-time highs. Simply put, by itself this almost bulletproof evidence of a major bottom and likelihood of major gains directly ahead.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold Stocks Bull Market Rebirth / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks are actually enjoying a great month, a stark contrast to this year’s brutal death spiral lower.  But after catapulting up by more than a quarter in less than a month, investors are wondering what to do next.  Is it time to cut losses before the catastrophic plunge resumes, or double down on the birth of a major new upleg?  With this sector still wildly oversold and absurdly undervalued, I’m betting on the latter.

Traders viscerally despise precious-metals miners and explorers these days, for good reason.  Year-to-date as of late June, the flagship HUI gold-stock index had plunged an astounding 53.4%!  This was against a backdrop of stellar general-stock performance, where the benchmark S&P 500 surged 12.4%.  Even gold’s rotten year to that point, -26.7%, was great compared to the excruciating gold-stock carnage.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Saving Silver Before the Real Confiscation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The general case for holding silver continues to improve as the MFGlobal and HSBC scandals confirm the absence of any rule of law or justice in the global financial system. The Peregrine Financial fiasco only serves to verify this somewhat jaded viewpoint.

Furthermore, the Cyprus “bail-in” or savings confiscation debacle makes it perfectly clear that keeping more than a small portion of one's assets in the financial system is increasingly unwise and could be subject to greater risks than most investors think.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold, Silver and the Antifragile Concept / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The concept of antifragility comes from Naseem Taleb's book Antifragile. In it, he describes things and processes that thrive on mistakes and volatility.

Basically, an antifragile system is one where error and/or risk is allowed, encouraged and leads to improvement overall.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold Price Retreats to April-Crash Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

The PRICE of gold bullion retreated from an overnight rise to $1340 per ounce in London on Friday morning, trading back down to $1322 – the low hit by the mid-April crash – as the US Dollar ticked higher.

Silver prices slipped back below $20 per ounce – a 33-month low when first breached in June.

Japanese stocks meantime fell hard as the Yen rose on the currency markets, and European equities slipped with commodities.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Buy Silver Now? II / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Investmentscore.com

Are you invested in or looking to buy into the silver market? Back in April we wrote an article illustrating the seasonal trends for the price of silver. At that time we determined that it may make sense to wait for a more favorable time of year to buy new positions. Based on silver performance in past years, would it have made sense to buy in July / August, or would it have made sense to wait for a better buying opportunity? Let’s take a look at some purchases in the bull market at the start of each August to see what would happen to that investment by spring.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold and Silver Price Trend Forecast Progress Report / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Peter_Degraaf

This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the US Monetary Base continues to rise exponentially. This is one of five major (along with many minor) central banks that are daily adding to the money supply of the world. This madness is causing investors to hedge against chaos and price inflation. Precious metals will benefit.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why are the Gold and Silver Prices Rising? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Fall in the Prices of Gold & Silver

Gold and silver recently hit their lows -$1,180 for gold and $18.50 for silver--after being hit by tremendous persistent selling from the SPDR gold ETF and then a major, well-engineered bear raid from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase alongside several hedge funds. This entailed the selling of over 1,000 tonnes of physical gold in less than three months. The bear-raid in mid-April involved around 500 tonnes of this. In a market where the net supply is just over 10 tonnes a day, this wave of selling overwhelmed demand, initially and caused the precipitous fall in gold and silver prices.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Attention Gold Bears - Fed to fall Short on Tapering QE-3 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Gary_Dorsch

The value of Gold has fluctuated wildly over the past few years. After rallying for 12-straight years, the yellow metal has tumbled as much as -38% from its all-time high of $1,923 /ounce reached in August ‘11. Gold officially fell into the quagmire of a Bear market on April 12^th, and even central bankers were caught off guard. They were net buyers of 535-tons last year, - the most they’ve ever accumulated in any single year. Today, the central banks are among the biggest losers - holding 31,700-tons, or roughly 19% of all the gold mined.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Gold Backed China’s Yuan Set To Become Global Reserve Currency? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,312.00, EUR 994.92 and GBP 857.63 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,340.00, EUR 1,012.31 and GBP 872.40 per ounce.

Gold fell $22.50 or 1.68% yesterday and closed at $1,319.90/oz.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Goldman Sachs' "Warehouse Shuffle" Just Cost You $5 Billion / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: It's just another game for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) - a "warehouse shuffle" that moves aluminum around while the big bank collects rent on the metal.

Although the rent on the stored aluminum - Goldman isn't allowed to actually own the commodity - is just pennies a day, the vast amount of the metal it has stored in its 27 Detroit warehouses and the "warehouse shuffle" strategy that enables it to extend the rental period for months on end adds up.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why Gold Prices Are Rising Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: After watching some drastic one-day plunges this year for the yellow metal, investors are wondering why gold prices are rising now– could this be the start of a healthy, prolonged rebound?

On Monday, gold enjoyed its biggest one-day jump in more than a year. It hit a four-week high as gold finally broke through the $1,300 an ounce technical resistance level and finished above $1,335 an ounce.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Comex Gold Explained / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

Miguel Perez-Santalla writes: A primer on how physical gold stocks are held for Comex contracts, and what stock changes mean...

There has been a lot of misinformation recently about Comex warehouse gold stocks.

Most notably, there's confusion about how this year's sharp drop in the quantity of gold bullion held in Comex warehouses might point to some looming shortage of metal to settle gold futures contracts, or even signal an outright default by sellers to buyers.