Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 10, 2014
Copper limit Down in Full Crash Mode, Commodities in Peril / Commodities / Copper
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
DBA has just completed a 65.6% retracement of its previous decline. This is a typical bear market rally propelled by shorts having to cover. This is why shorting the market can be a zero sum game, if profits aren’t taken early. On the other hand, this presents another opportunity to short agricultural products. The decline may be breathtaking, as DBA goes into a Primary Cycle decline.
Sunday, March 09, 2014
Gold And Silver Market Activity Will Always Trump News/Events/Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
There is something going on in the gold and silver market, and it is difficult to ascertain exactly what it is. Perhaps it can best be described as a change in market behavior that may be defining a potential change in trend. For many, the presumption has been, "Gold and silver are going to go to the moon, for the following reason[s]...." What followed was then a litany of the same facts that have been widely known for well over a year, and the same types of graphs depicting various aspects, [depleted gold stocks, cost of production v current price, etc], very often nicely colored and reproduced, but to no practical effect, at least in terms of the direction of price for gold and silver which continued lower until the end of 2013.
Saturday, March 08, 2014
Gold Stocks Bottom - What 10-Baggers (and 100-Baggers) Look Like / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Jeff_Clark
Now that it appears clear the bottom is in for gold, it’s time to stop fretting about how low prices will drop and how long the correction will last—and start looking at how high they’ll go and when they’ll get there.
When viewing the gold market from a historical perspective, one thing that’s clear is that the junior mining stocks tend to fluctuate between extreme boom and bust cycles. As a group, they’ll double in price, then crash by 75%... then double or triple or even quadruple again, only to crash 90%. Boom, bust, repeat.
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Friday, March 07, 2014
Gold ETF Stocks Inflows Return / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Stock-market capital finally started flowing back into the flagship GLD gold ETF for the first time in 14 months in February! Though this buying was small, this is truly a momentous event. Extreme gold-ETF outflows were the dominant culprit behind last year’s epic gold selloff. Without that massive influx of additional supply weighing on the global markets, gold is going to surge on strong physical demand.
The World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report published just a couple weeks ago really drives home the importance of gold-ETF selling. In 2013 they suffered their first net annual outflows ever seen since the first one was launched in 2003. As today’s secular gold bull is the first time these gold ETFs ever even existed, the gold market has literally never experienced anything like last year.
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Friday, March 07, 2014
Gold and Silver and the Paradox of Over-Optimization / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Disaster, by over-optimization, is another important way to frame the much-heralded "just in time" inventory practices which are used broadly by industry and grafted to monetary assets like precious metals.
The overgrowth of the financial system and serial bailouts are akin to allowing fuels to build up in the forest, preventing the natural burn off needed to replenish the soil and pave the way for new growth. Superficially, intentions are certainly good. But many suffer despite the well-intended. No one wants to see suffering or be held responsible for it for even a microsecond.
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Friday, March 07, 2014
Gold Price Challenges $1350 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
From last Friday's close at $1322, gold opened strongly on Monday trading, as high as $1355 before losing two thirds of the rise on Tuesday. On Thursday afternoon (GMT) gold rallied back to challenge the $1350 level. This morning (Friday) it is in the balance as to whether or not gold will need more consolidation before moving on towards $1400, with everyone watching out for US employment numbers.
The change in sentiment over the last eight weeks has encouraged small traders to go long on gold. Normally, market-makers would be able to mark prices down aggressively to shake out these short-term speculators, but it has not recently happened. This suggests that the underlying market is robust.
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Friday, March 07, 2014
Gold and Silver Stocks Interesting Developments in the Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
As I promised you last night lets look at the GLDX, Junior Gold Stock Explorers etf that maybe one of the hottest areas in the markets right now. Tonight I’ll show you the two different measuring techniques I use to get an idea of where the price may move once a breakout is in progress.
The first method I call the breakout to breakout method which the name implies. You can use this method when you have a top, bottom or consolidation pattern below your current consolidation pattern. Using the GLDX we see this is the case. We have the red bullish falling wedge that formed below our current blue triangle. If this plays out according to plan the blue triangle will be in the middle between the red bullish falling wedge and the price objective up to the 19.50 area.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sharp Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.27% as tensions cooled in Ukraine and U.S. supply data missed investors’ expectations. Because of these circumstances, light crude erased all its gains from Monday's jump and dropped below $101 per barrel.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
Renewed Indian Demand Driving Gold Prices Higher? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Current Situation
Since last August, the Indian government placed a stranglehold on gold imports into the country by requiring that 20% of all gold imported be exported as jewellery. This forced the amount of gold imported to drop to 30% of former levels until October of last year. Then the amount imported rose to 38 tonnes a month and has been at that level since then. The amount of gold that was expected to be imported for the year was north of 1,200 tonnes. It only achieved an imported total of 825 tonnes, around 400 tonnes less than expected.
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Thursday, March 06, 2014
What I Learned About Gold at the World’s Biggest Mining & Exploration Convention / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: This week, I went to one of the world’s biggest mining and exploration conventions, which was hosted by the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) and was held in Toronto. There were hundreds of gold mining and exploration companies showcasing their projects and making their case for how they could be the next big investment.
Thursday, March 06, 2014
Gold Price Fails to Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion short speculative positions (half) in silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are closing half of the long-term investment position in gold.
As you know, we had been expecting the tensions in Ukraine to cause a significant rally in gold (not necessarily in the rest of the precious metals sector). Not only wasn't that the case on Monday - the rally indeed took place, but it was rather average, but gold managed to decline on Tuesday while there was no visible improvement in the situation in Ukraine and on the Crimea peninsula.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Another Big Move Up Coming in Gold Mining Shares / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Now that the first leg off the bear market bottom has been completed the mining shares have been consolidating for the last three weeks in preparation for another leg up, and I expect the second leg will be almost as powerful as the first.
As gold is now late in its daily cycle I'm looking for one more dip down into Friday's employment report to complete the short-term correction. Then I look for gold's third daily cycle to test the $1425 resistance zone over the next month.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2014
PDAC 2014 Underscores Muted Sentiment towards Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The buzz phrase at PDAC 2014 could be described as “cautious optimism.” Executives, analysts and investors seem to believe a corner has been turned but failed to show any excitement or hope beyond that. Some participants estimated that attendance was down 20% from last year and much lower than 2012. I did not attend last year but definitely noticed foot traffic was significantly lower than in 2012. Interest in my presentation this year was much lower than in 2012. Mind you, these are only anecdotal measures of sentiment. However, for me they further underscore that very few seem to believe in the immediate continuation and sustainability of this recovery.
Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Graphite Investors Should Look for Large Flakes, Small Resources / Commodities / Graphene
By: The_Gold_Report
Companies that boast 80,000 ton-per-year production or high purity levels don't always impress Kiril Mugerman, mining analyst with Industrial Alliance Securities. Why? Because finding buyers for all those tons is a huge challenge, and thrifty end-users like to purify lower-grade graphite in-house. In this interview with The Mining Report, Mugerman explains why he looks for smaller projects that can hit revenue targets, and indicates which of the 176 graphite projects out there are worth your attention.
The Mining Report: In May 2012, you described graphite as "the black gold of the 21st century." Do you still believe that?
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Monday, March 03, 2014
New Spy Technology to Spawn Oil Revolution / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The future of oil exploration lies in new technology--from massive data-processing supercomputers to 4D seismic to early-phase airborne spy technology that can pinpoint prospective reservoirs. Oil and gas is getting bigger, deeper, faster and more efficient, with new technology chipping away at “peak oil” concerns. Hydraulic fracturing has caught mainstream attention, other high-tech developments in exploration and discovery have kept this ball rolling.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Does the Keystone XL Pipeline Still Matter? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ronan_Keenan
Last month it seemed the Keystone XL pipeline was nearing approval, but as with most things surrounding the project, things weren’t as they seemed. A US state department report reviewed the Alberta, Canada–Nebraska pipeline and indicated the project was unlikely to have a significant impact on climate change. This seemed like a significant positive step for pipeline, but within the details of report were critical comments from the Environmental Protection Agency.
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Monday, March 03, 2014
Gold Stocks HUI 2008 Blast from the Past / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
Below is a chart of the HUI H&S top that I was showing on another website , during its formation in 2008 and the crash that followed. Keep in mind the HUI had been rallying for 8 years without a topping formation so when I started to show the possibility of this H&S top nobody wanted to hear it. Some of you know the feeling, that when you post something negative about the precious metals complex, you have to take a lot of flack to make your point.
Monday, March 03, 2014
London Gold Price Fix Is Manipulated Although Evidence Exists For Many Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
It was only a week ago when we wrote that the Financial Times removed the article “Gold Price Rigging Fears Put Investors On Alert” from their website, a couple of hours after being published. We were able to dig up the original article in Google’s caching memory and took screenshots of the removed article.
Monday, March 03, 2014
GOLD Price Bearish Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Gregor_Horvat
Gold has turned down from 1345 resistance area where we see a completed five wave rise from 1251 level, which was the end point of a triangle. There are chances that market accomplished wave (c) that is a part of a huge zigzag from 1181 low. Notice that price also moved beneath 1251-1307 trendline that suggests further weakness in the short-term, probably back to 1307 area of a former wave iv).
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Sunday, March 02, 2014
Fresh Water Crisis - Dawn of the Dead Watershed / Commodities / Water Sector
By: Richard_Mills
There's a lot of water on the planet we inhabit - an estimated 326 million trillion gallons or 1,260,000,000,000,000,000,000 liters.
That makes it hard to believe that there are somewhere between 780 million to one billion people without basic and reliable water supplies and that more than two billion people lack the requirements for basic sanitation.
Harder still to believe are reports water is going to get much dearer in our near term future yet global demand for fresh water may outstrip supply by as much as 40 per cent in 20 years if current fresh-water consumption trends continue.
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