Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 07, 2008
US Economy, Commodity Prices and the Trade Cycle / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current economic situation brings to mind 1999 when worries about the state of the US economy were piling up faster than rationalisations about the country's alleged growth rate. There was less talk of a "new era" economy and more about a "correction". What was it that brought about a more subdued assessment in so many quarters? Commodity prices are the answer.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Is the US Fed Inflating or Deflating? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. This week, I stick my nose in where it ain't wanted. (again)We get down in the dirt about deflation and we look at some stocks and wonder why and I show you my long term indicators.
Now, I'm not one to boast, really I'm not. No one enjoys the likes of me stuffing “I told you so” remarks down reader's throats. There comes a time when it does become slightly unavoidable. Is it ego, a demand of recognition? Is it a desire to be kingpin, the ultra guru? Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn, as long as my readers get something that helps make life as an investor /trader easier then my attitude is “so what?”
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Saturday, April 05, 2008
Ring-Fence the Bad Assets- Re-Arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Yesterday I expressed my opinion on the lack of economic substance of allowing financial institutions to value the assets on their books at historical cost or whatever they so desire ( Mark It as You Choose, but Is Enough Cash Coming In? ). Today, yet another "costless" solution to the bad-asset problem is being put forth in the Financial Times - quarantine the bad apples from the good ( Wall St banks seek to ring-fence bad assets ). ,br> Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Inflationary Losers in the Great Solvency Slump / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Counting the winners and losers of the Great Solvency Slump so far – and guessing at the big winners to come..."
YOU DON'T HAVE TO be a rabid libertarian or Marxist historian with leather patches on his jacket to look at the current world banking crisis and ask " Cui bono...?"
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Thursday, April 03, 2008
No Economic Depression on the Horizon ... / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Last week I told you that the mortgage crisis is not over. This week, the message I want you to come away with is that the mortgage and credit crisis do not present a doomsday scenario.
Don't misunderstand — I am not cavalier about the financial crisis the U.S. is going through. It is scary stuff. Probably the worst crisis this country has seen since the Great Depression.
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Wednesday, April 02, 2008
At the Gates of Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Regent_Markets
High yield spreads remain stubbornly high despite dramatic interventions from UK and US central banks. Banks are hording cash due to mistrust and fear over who will make the next big write down. Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, put up the rates on some mortgages despite there being a reasonable probability of a rate cut on the 10th of April.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Paulson's Civic Robbery To Finance Hyper Inflation / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: John_Browne
Monday, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced the laying of the government's foundation stone for the next big financial bubble, heralding an era of hyperinflation and probable further runs on the U.S. dollar.
Of course, like most politics, there is usually a ‘good' reason and a ‘real' reason for actions. Today's announcement was no exception.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Inflation, Gold and the Government / Economics / Inflation
By: David_Petch
Inflation as defined by Ludwig von Mises, “Inflation is defined as monetary expansion through introduction of physical fiat currency or issuance of credit”.
Printing money has a delayed effect to hit the system; it will be circulating in the system and travel through a series of bubbles. The end game for inflationary cycles results from excessive money chasing commodities. The phenomenon of inverse relationships between bull markets in broad market indices and commodities is well known…commodity prices decline to such low levels that supplies become critical, thereby driving up prices. An example of delays in pricing hitting the consumer lies in examination of Producers Pricing Index (PPI) and the Consumers Pricing Index (CCI).
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Inflation Deflation Battle / Economics / US Economy
By: Fake_Ben
Round One Winner: Schiff - In a recent article, I wrote about Mike “Mish” Shedlock of the blog Global Economic Trend Analysis ( http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com ) and Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. ( http://www.europac.net/ ). I separated them into the camps of the deflationistas (Shedlock) and the inflationistas (Schiff) .Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 31, 2008
Further Weakness in the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The worst quarter since the first half of 2002 will be in the books at the close today, and not a day too soon. The news of the week included still poor housing data, although a few glimmers of hope in that the declines were less than originally estimated. Too were the refi and new purchase activity, reported by Mortgage Bankers Association, jumped as mortgages rates moved modestly lower. This week will be loaded with the usual first week data, including employment, which will likely show another contraction in payrolls, further fueling those sitting on the fence that we are indeed in a recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 31, 2008
US Interest Rate Cuts Ineffective If Banks Do Not Lend / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Click on the link for my update on Moral Hazard written for Livecharts earlier this week. Stress continues to increase across all markets, a fact that should make all investors stop and think about the root cause.
First up, we dig into the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for Q4 '07. Specifically I want to look at the growth of Domestic Non-Financial Debt:
Friday, March 28, 2008
Bail me out Bernanke / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Peter_Schiff
Now that the Fed and the Treasury Department have clumsily come to the rescue of the financial titans of Wall Street, it is now politically dangerous to resist similar pleas from just about everybody else. Populism is emerging as a dominant theme is this election year, and with so much largesse showered on Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, politicians are demanding even more generous terms for consumers. In Washington , it seems that two wrongs apparently make a right. Another downside to corporate bailouts is that they provide the critics of free market capitalism with plenty of excuses to weigh down American economic vitality with even more unnecessary regulation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Three Lessons from the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: A huge bull market in commodities takes a downturn. Equities are getting clobbered. The nation is groaning under insurmountable debts after the banks throw caution to the wind.
It's an election year, and some people say the market is over-regulated — others that it's not regulated enough. All the while, weather is making headlines — in fact, some people believe the weather could herald the beginning of the end.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
New Economic and Financial System to Arise from the Credit Crisis Ashes / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week I take great pride and pleasure in being able to bring you a recent letter from my very good friend Peter Bernstein. I asked him to let me publish this, as I think this is one of the more important, thought-provoking pieces I have read in a very long time. I am grateful for that permission, as you will be when you read this. I would take the time to read it through several times. Read this paragraph from the beginning of the letter to get an idea of the thought path down which Peter is going to take us: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 24, 2008
Savings and the US Economy- Fallacy of Including Home Ownership in Savings / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
A while ago David Malpass, financial writer and chief economist at Bear Stearns, (and I do mean that Bear Stearns) argued that US savings are under reported because they exclude "cash flow improvements from realized gains on equities, houses, and mortgage refinancing." Now I am not referring to Malpass as a means to take a swipe at Bear Stearns and the quality of its advisors: that's the market's job. What Malpass did was to inadvertently draw attention to the confusion that reigns among the economic commentariat with respect to the nature of saving and its critical importance for economic welfare. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Wall St. Stocks Rally on Philly Fed US Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
"NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Thursday, pushing the Dow briefly up more than 1 percent, as a reading on factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell by less than analysts' had forecast, improving views on the U.S. economic outlook."
Tell me. On what basis did "analysts" have to predict what the Philly Fed March factory activity headline would be? For that matter, on what basis do "analysts" have for predicting what weekly initial jobless claims will be.
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Thursday, March 20, 2008
Shadow of the Great Depression and 1970's Stagflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Every morning, when you look in the mirror, I want you to think 'What am I going to do today to increase the money supply?'..." John Ehrlichman, assistant to Richard Nixon, apparently speaking to Charles Pardee, a Federal Reserve governor,sometime in the early 1970s
SO WE'RE ALL agreed then.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
UK Inflation CPI Rises to 2.5% for 2009 UK Election? / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Inflation as measured by the CPI Index rose to 2.5% for February, however the rise was wholly due to a change in the way the index is calculated without which the CPI would probably have remained unchanged. The more accepted RPI inflation index remained unchanged at 4.1%. Therefore the artificial boost to the CPI suggests the intention for the creation of a spike in UK CPI inflation now which will leave the indices in 12 months time, thus resulting in a drop in CPI inflation and hence have the prospects for interest rate cuts in the lead up to the summer of 2009, which could present Gordon Brown with an ideal opportunity to go to the polls.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
The Dual Paradigms Of Today's Stagflation and Deflation Macro Economic Conditions / Economics / Stagflation
By: Captain_Hook
Many are now categorizing current macro economic conditions as being an instance of stagflation . And while current circumstances definitely appear to be so, in my opinion one needs to go past the definition of stagflation to capture the essence of macro conditions at present, because this is not your father's economy. In the last inflation cycle witnessed in the 70's, wages were growing and people had savings, and we still had the disinflation period this sponsored up until millenniums turn to live through. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
US Economy Hit by Monetary Storm / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current monetary crisis has brought forth an avalanche of opinions on what President Bush and the Fed need to do to arrest the dollar's decline and prevent a recession. But what really needs to be done? The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles is betting that there will not be a recession, though there will be a significant downturn in the rate of growth. Of course, there is the usual caveat that if consumers reduce their purchases of big-ticket items this could bring on a recession. Read full article... Read full article...