Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

US Housing recession increasing risks of US Economic recession as growth continues to slow / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Three quarters of below potential growth and counting.
As everyone knows, the housing recession is the biggest drag on the pace of economic activity right now. But is the housing recession at its bottom? And more importantly, are there negative multiplier effects emanating from the housing recession? With regard to whether the housing recession has hit bottom; it is doubtful. In an average housing downturn, real residential investment expenditures decline by about 25% peak to trough.

Chart 1

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

US and Global Economy Strong and inflation under control - Henry Paulson / Economics / Strategic News

By: Sarah_Jones

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson expressed confidence in the global economy - "We have a very strong global economy," Paulson said after a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Kwon O-kyu. "We have a global economy with low inflation, high levels of liquidity and I feel very comfortable with the global economy."

US and Global Economy Strong and inflation under control - Henry Paulson

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 02, 2007

Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse / Economics / Investing

By: Peter_Schiff

With the recent sharp decline in the stock market, the timing of the official release of my new book "Crash Proof" this Monday could not have been better. Ironically the media and Wall Street are assuring investors that the fundamentals have not change and that all is well. Of course what these market cheerleaders do not understand is that the fundamentals are just as lousy now as they have always been. In fact, they are about to get a whole lot worse!

Despite the upbeat tone coming out of Washington and Wall Street, the U.S. economy is only a shadow of its former self. The country has gone from being the world's largest creditor to its greatest debtor; the value of the dollar is sinking; domestic manufacturing is winding down -- and none of these trends seem to be slowing down.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 02, 2007

Yield Curve Inversion and Inflation - Consumer Price Index (CPI) / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Adam_Oliensis

While many argue that the Consumer Price Index is a flawed indicator (some claim it understates inflation and others claim it overstates inflation), it does generate heated debate and can act as a catalyst for stock-market activity. In the context of Fed Chairman Bernanke's relatively dovish comments before both houses of Congress last week, a surprise on the CPI data could easily spur market volatility this coming week.

Currently the consensus estimate is for a +0.1% M/M on the CPI, which is below trend, and would be bullish for stocks. The most recent Y/Y reading stands at +2.61%...

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Stock Market Shocks, Money Supply Liquidity and the US Dollar / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Events in the last week have certainly caused a stir. Just what precipitated the broad global selloff. Was it the unwind of the Yen Carry Trade, a week delayed? Was it only attributable to the Chinese and their more stern stance against adolescent credit abuses in the Middle Kingdom?

Was it Al Greenspan's comments on an economic recession looming near on the horizon? Was it caution on risk pricing in view of the insane Iran vs USA posturing in the Persian Gulf? Was it Goldman Sachs orchestration with collusion from Beijing, after massive short positions were put in place? Were the GSax powers motivated by the alarms going off in the gold and silver markets, as gold neared $700 and silver passed $14? Methinks all the above, never just one factor in an increasingly complex financial world. The global markets have become a tangled web.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 01, 2007

First Inflation then Deflation? - Financial Markets Crash / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Christopher_Laird

With gold up at $680, it looks like $700 is around the corner. So then, if a big gold surge is around the corner, one may ask, what is a longer term prognosis for not only gold but financial markets? Answer: first inflation and then deflation.

Right now, the world is inflating like mad. Money growth in most of the major world economies is near or exceeding 10% a year, and China is the biggie at 18% plus. That, combined with historically low interest rates is causing huge finance and asset bubbles. Central banks are way behind the inflation/interest rate curve right now, and are basically stuck in that rut because if any of them combat inflation by raising interest rates, they find their currencies strengthen, and lose market share.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 01, 2007

US Economy and Dollar Balancing Act / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Michael_Pento

Economists are now arguing over whether it will be a hard or soft landing for the U.S. economy. The fact that a landing will occur is no longer debatable. Empirical evidence demonstrates that the fragile U.S. economy is growing weaker with each passing piece of government data. Anemic GDP, durable goods, Chicago PMI, ISM-Manufacturing, and Factory orders, along with rising unemployment claims are suggesting that the Fed will stimulate the economy with yet more liquidity this year. The Fed and the economy/market may find itself in a box next year—a Bernanke Box—one that puts the economy squarely at odds with the dollar.

The Fed's mandate is to maintain dollar stability. However, they may have to decide whether to rescue a falling currency by hiking rates or to lower rates in order to stave off a recession. Which posture they take will have major ramifications for the bond, stock market and the economy. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Gross Analysis - How to create an even bigger mess of the US Economy / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Michael_Pento

When the most esteemed market strategists espouse questionable economic theories, they should not be able to do so without being exposed to critique. Recently, two revered men of finance, Bill Gross and John Rutledge, made some pretty extraordinary comments, remarks which haven't gotten the attention they deserve.

Let's Make Nothing!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

US Inflation - The Medical Care Component of Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Among the several economic reports due for publication this week -- new home sales, existing home sales, consumer confidence measures, durable goods orders, preliminary estimate of fourth quarter real GDP, and ISM manufacturing survey results for February, construction outlays for January, and the personal income and outlays report for January-- the Fed's preferred inflation measure will garner a great deal of attention.

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, advanced 2.22% in December, representing a deceleration from the 2.44% peak seen in August. This improvement is important because core inflation is heading in the direction of the FOMC's comfort zone of 1%-2%. However, after the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported, there were concerns about the January core PCE price index because it is largely based on the CPI.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Why there has been No US Recession / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Michael_Pento

Following up on today's lackluster durable goods report, tomorrow's 4th quarter GDP report may be significantly lower than the 3.5% advanced number due to inventory and trade data revisions. The new figure will be closer to my assessment that today's economy remains anemic.

Some market pundits -- myself included -- had predicted the U.S. economy would be in recession by the second half of 2007. It now appears unlikely the economy will reach recessionary levels by the predicted timeline since a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative G.D.P. growth. Despite the lower figure we're likely to see today (which could be revised down to near 2%), it is my view that the economy would have shown as being even weaker if not for two factors: the war in Iraq and increased stimulus from the Fed.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Investment flow defict New threat to the Dollar - The Mike Tyson Economy / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Don't look now, but a new emergent monster is growing, this one a close cousin to the trade gap. We have all been subjected to the steady deterioration in the trade gap, from gargantuan imported product sales from Asian (mostly Chinese, but also Pacific Rim) finished goods, worsened by oil imports (MidEast, Canada, and Mexico).

The source of trade deficits used to be primarily electronics from the Pacific Rim and oil from the MidEast. Now it is a cornucopia of finished products from China like furniture, housewares, furniture, garden items, and a mix of pirated products like car parts.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 24, 2007

US Federal Reserve Study points to 51.9% Chance of Recession this year / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: John_Mauldin

What are the odds of a recession? According to a recent Fed study, they may be 51.9%. Close enough to 50-50 for government work. We analyze this study, look at a few graphs which show a major disconnect between the housing market and the US manufacturing and services sectors, and then close with some comments on yet another proposed rule change. But let's start with a few housekeeping items.

The latter half of this letter will be written primarily to my colleagues in the financial services area, and to managers, entrepreneurs, and businesses who anticipate the need to raise capital in the future. There are some proposed rule changes at the NASD that will significantly limit the ability of a registered representative to communicate with clients about private offerings, ETFs, venture capital, DPPs, and other offerings. In some cases, it will effectively prohibit communication on the items. This is not just about hedge funds. I think these rule interpretations will have the unintended consequence of the potential to severely impact capital formation in this country. This is under the radar screen of 99% of my colleagues.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Positive Outlook for Euro-zone and German Economic Growth / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Victoria_Marklew

As generally expected, German business sentiment slipped a little further in February, with the Ifo research institute's business climate index dipping to 107.0 from 107.9 in January. As Ifo's economists pointed out, some fall was expected after the three percentage point hike in the VAT rate that took effect in January (taking it to 19%), and a slide of less than a point is hardly dramatic. Overall, the level remains well above the long-term average.

As generally expected, German business sentiment slipped a little further in February

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 24, 2007

A Dangerous Central Bank Party - The World is Awash with Easy Money / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Money_and_Markets

Mardi Gras 2007 just wrapped up. The revelers have gone home. The garbage is being swept up. The Big Easy won't be hosting another one of its famous parties until next year …

But the world's central bankers? They aren't putting away the party beads or the booze. Instead, they're still doling out the easy money and saying, “Laissez les bon temps rouler!” (“Let the good times roll!”)

Now, there's nothing inherently wrong with a party. But there's also a time and place for a celebration. And in a moment, I'll tell you how the parade could careen out of control.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Is the US Federal Reserve finally losing its Inflation Credibility as Gold Soars / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Peter_Schiff

With Wednesday's data release that showed that the increase in “core” CPI in January was higher than expected, the price of gold soared by over $20 per ounce to just shy of $680 per ounce, a new nine-month high. As this is the reaction that most market watchers would have expected, it is not surprising that these movements failed to inspire much interest.

After all, gold is an inflation hedge, so any sign that inflation is worsening should be positive for gold prices. However, what is surprising is that this is one of the few recent occasions when the gold market has actually behaved logically in this regard. Could it be that some whiff of sanity has arrived on Wall Street?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 23, 2007

Economic Summits, China Trade War, and the Gold Bull Run / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Numerous international events took place within the last month. The Economic Summit was held in Davos Switzerland. It convened a large collection of world renown economists, corporate chieftains, and some financial market kingpins. The G8 Meeting of finance ministers was held in Germany. Back home, USFed Chairman Bernanke issued a grave warning to the US Congress on the shattered US financial balance sheets. My commentary on money supply explosion comes next.

Lastly, the Chinese trade disputes have taken a big step toward outright trade war and protectionism. Few see how the trade war will affect gold yet. They will soon enough. Restricted trade flow always results in higher prices. It is always accompanied by a scramble for resources in today's context. This trade war will include a massive bidding war and staggering battles to build stockpiles of all critical commodities.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 23, 2007

US Housing Market Crash to result in the Second Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mike_Whitney

This week’s data on the sagging real estate market leaves no doubt that the housing bubble is quickly crashing to earth and that hard times are on the way. “The slump in home prices from the end of 2005 to the end of 2006 was the biggest year over year drop since the National Association of Realtors started keeping track in 1982.” (New York Times) The Commerce Dept announced that the construction of new homes fell in January by a whopping 14.3%. Prices fell in half of the nation’s major markets and “existing home sales declined in 40 states”. Arizona, Florida, California, and Virginia have seen precipitous drops in sales.

The Commerce Department also reported that “the number of vacant homes increased by 34% in 2006 to 2.1 million at the end of the year, nearly double the long-term vacancy rate.” (Marketwatch)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, February 22, 2007

The New World Economy Part 2 - A Rejoinder to Mohamed El-Erian / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

This is the second article in a series of three papers, which collectively comprise the complete rejoinder to Mr. Mohamed El-Erian's article: Complex Finance and the Brave New World Economy .

The same format used in the first paper will be utilized again. The article will be broken down into paragraphs, followed by a synopsis of the main points of each paragraph, and then comments. This focus on each individual paragraph separately, facilitates an easier understanding and discussion of the complex issues involved.

Once again I would like to emphasize that this rejoinder is to what was said - not to who said it. Mr. El-Erian is a great scholar recognized and respected around the world. This is not personal, it is simply business.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 17, 2007

US Recession - Gold, Housing and the Inverted Yield Curve / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: John_Mauldin

I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions.

I am often asked whether a yield curve causes a recession. The (very) short answer is no. But then what is the mechanism that makes it so reliable? Is it different this time? How can we believe that the economy has a few bumps in its future when things are just so darn good? We ponder these questions in today's letter, as well as peruse the "shocking" housing data released this morning, and look at a very interesting chart on gold.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, February 16, 2007

US Selling Assets for Consumption - BHP Bid for Alcoa / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Peter_Schiff

On Tuesday of this week we learned that in 2006 Americans racked up a record $763.6 Billion trade deficit, and that two Australian mining firms, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, were each contemplating $40 billion bids for U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa. Not only did Wall Street and the media fail to grasp the negative significance of each story, but they also failed to see the strong connection between the two.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 150 | 160 | 170 | 180 | 190 | 200 | 210 | 220 | 230 | 240 | 250 | 260 | 270 | 280 | 290 | 299 | 300 | 301 | 302 | 303 | 304 | >>