Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 14, 2008
US Manipulated CPI Inflation Statistics- Stagflation 1980 and Now / Economics / Stagflation
By: Tim_Iacono
There's been a lot of talk in recent months about how different the current period is from bouts of "stagflation" in the 1970s and early 1980s. According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), "inflation" peaked in 1980 at around 14 percent or so and many pundits today say that we'll never see those levels ever again.
They're probably right ... but not for the reasons you might think.
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Friday, March 14, 2008
US CPI Inflation Falls to 4%- Flashes Deflation Warning to Commodity Bulls Towards 2008 End / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Inflation came in flat for February, confounding consensus forecasts that called for a rise of 0.2%. Annualised CPI falls to 4% from 4.3% and is inline with my overall expectations as highlighted in the extensive article of 2nd March 08 - Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! Which concluded that deflationary forces would take hold towards the end of 2008 as illustrated by the graph below -Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
Asian Emerging Economies Are Still Booming! / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: It's 3:30 AM here in Bangkok as I write this edition of Money and Markets . Across the street from my apartment, four towers are rising toward the sky. A 52-story luxury condo development is under construction with crews working 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
It's hard to believe that the crane operators, now perched over the 22nd floor, can see what they are doing as they hoist up tons of rebar, bins full of cement, rolls of steel sheathing and stacks of glass.
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Friday, March 14, 2008
UK Trade Goods Data 2007- Exports Fell by 10%, Imports Rose by 2% / Economics / UK Economy
By: HMRC
UK Regional Trade in Goods estimates are released today, for the fourth quarter of 2007 .
• Total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 was £218,919m.
• The total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 fell by £24,902m (10 per cent) compared to the 12 months ending December 2006.
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Thursday, March 13, 2008
Patchy Nature of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Michael_Pento
The strange thing about myths is that while some have their basis in truth, for the most part they suffer from a dearth of reality. The same is true about today's well promulgated credit crisis. First let me admit, there clearly is a crisis in certain areas of the credit markets. For instance, there is definitive evidence of duress for hedge funds that hold Credit Default Obligations, especially in leveraged portfolios. A crunch also exists for mortgage lending companies that must issue asset-backed commercial paper. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Japanese Economic Hard Landing Forecast for 2008 / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
While investment powerhouses like UBS barely lowered their 2008 growth forecast for Japan in late January down to 1.2%, their forecast is likely to prove overly optimistic. Even in late January, Morgan Stanley's respective forecast is 1.1%. IMF's forecast is 1.5%. So far, only Goldman Sacs has suggested that there is a probability that the Japanese economy may have slipped into a recession at the beginning of 2008. I believe that the Japanese economy will surprise on the downside with a recession during 2008 that may likely extend into 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Bad Economics Caused Our Economies Current Account Problems / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current account deficit, rising prices and our deteriorating foreign debt situation has caused the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate from 7 per cent to 7.25 per cent. Bank assets are a useful guide to monetary policy. These fell by 36.25 per cent from May 2007 to January 2008. These figures suggest that the RBA means business and will continue to raise rates until it brings spending under 'control'. Unfortunately this cannot be done without bringing the economy to a grinding halt. So how did we arrive to this situation?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Can Supply-side Economics Save the US Economy from the Boom Bust Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Current trends in the US economy are worrying a lot of people -- and so they should. Unfortunately worrying never solved any problems, only action can do that. But in order to solve a problem once must first identify it. Remember that economic trends are the product of deeper forces. For instance, a continual rise in productivity year after year is the fruit of capital accumulation increasing faster than the population. On the other hand, the so-called boom-bust cycle is the result of bad economics. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 09, 2008
The US Economies Path to Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
In March of 2007, I predicted America would have a recession before the end of 2008. (see Warning: Recession Ahead at http://www.theculturaleconomist blog.blogspot.com/ . At that point in time, my thoughts were greeted with a certain amount of – shall we say – skepticism. Well. Here we are one year later. It would appear the number of skeptics has decreased.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Deflating Housing and Credit Bubbles Will Lead to DisInflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- The BS from the BLS
- 2,500,000 "Lost Jobs" and Counting
- Taking a Long-Term Perspective
- Leverage in Reverse Gear
- What's That Hissing Sound?
The official number for employment suggested a loss of 63,000 jobs. But could it have been more like 200,000? And I will make a case for 2,000,000 lost jobs last month. This week we will take a look at the confusing labor-market picture in the US. We will also look at the debate over the money supply. Is the Fed increasing the money supply at a reckless rate, fueling inflation fears down the road? All this and a lot more as we look at how the recession in affecting everyone and everything, from individuals to large businesses. (The letter will print a little long, but there are a lot of charts.)
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Saturday, March 08, 2008
Post Bubble America Heading for Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Whitney
“Market conditions are the worst anyone in this industry can ever remember. I don't think anyone has a recollection of a total disappearance in liquidity...There are billion of dollars worth of assets out there for which there is just no market.” Alain Grisay, chief executive officer of London-based F&C Asset Management Plc; Bloomberg News
The hurricane that began with subprime mortgages, has swept through the credit markets wreaking havoc on municipal bonds, hedge funds, complex structured investments, and agency debt (Fannie Mae). Now the first gusts from the Force-5 gale are touching down in the real economy where the damage is expected to be widespread.
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Friday, March 07, 2008
US Dollar-Gold: A Perfect Hyper-Stagflationary Storm / Economics / Stagflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The title should really be “Psychology of 1000-20-100” to give respect to the major signpost price targets. The $1000 gold target is within reach. The $20 silver target has been breached. The $100 crude oil price has been breached. Before long, all three price levels will serve as support. When a gold target of $1000 was proposed three to four years ago, most people dominated (or bound) by conventional thinking dismissed such talk as silly, irresponsible, even ludicrous. Not any more! The same goes for silver and crude oil with their respective distant price targets, each attained. Profound market psychology is in the process of changing. Many new wrong analyses will come to the table, like so many casseroles containing rancid meat and rotten vegetables as ingredients. They will maintain that now these three goals have been met, the great sell off can begin. They will be dead wrong. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Eurozone Economy Heading for Hard Landing- Economic Forecast 2008 / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
Economic reality will likely prove forecasts of major international institutions about Europe's 2008 growth prospects wrong. So, let us first see what they think; then we will see what I think and why.
A number of major institutions have provided their 2008 Eurozone economic forecast. Interestingly, many of them just recently (December 2007) revised down their forecasts. Here is a quick survey: 2.1% by IMF – revised its 2008 growth forecast for the Eurozone down from 2.5%; 1.9% by OECD; 2.0% by ECB, the midpoint of their range, down from previous midpoint of 2.3%; 2.0% by EU Commission; 1.8% by ING Financial Markets.
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Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Why the United States Will Go Into Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
If my email is anything to go by, there are a lot of worried and confused people out there. Basically most want to know why if the US economy is going to slide into recession. Of course it will. The question is when. I have to exercise caution here because I haven't had the time during the last couple of weeks to take a much closer look at the economic trends. Since Bush won the 2000 election the media has done nothing but report economic doom. For them, predicting a recession is bit like predicting rain a few weeks hence. They one will eventually develop, they just hope Bush is still president when this happens.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Kings of Denial: What Bush and Bernanke are NOT telling you about the Economy ... / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Never underestimate the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to trap themselves into a pattern of denial.
That's what Fed Chairman Greenspan did in the early 2000s, even while he was helping to create the greatest housing bubble of all time.
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Saturday, March 01, 2008
Stagflation and the Fed- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Mauldin
- How Do You Spell Stagflation?
- Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?
- The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead!
- Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side
This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Tax Rebate 2008 - United States Congress Resorts to Trickle-Up Irrationality / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Andy_Sutton
The Roman poet Juvenal used the term ‘bread and circuses' to characterize palliative measures taken by the imperial Roman government to lure the populace into a state of blissful ignorance. This blissful ignorance comes at the expense of the solution of long-term societal problems, and arguably was a significant component of the end of the Empire.
Charles Fourier described his economic pinnacle a bit differently, opining that the oceans would turn to lemonade and roasted chickens would fly into our mouths. He used this amazing statement to describe a utopian socialism where the government was the ultimate provider.
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
What if Conventional Wisdom On Economic Growth and Consumer Spending Is Wrong? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
There it was, right in the middle of the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal about four paragraphs down in the lead story titled " Decline in Home Prices Accelerates " - more evidence that the economy as we know it could be fundamentally flawed, yet you'd never get a hint of that even from reading one of the the world's finest business publication.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 28, 2008
US Money Supply Growth? Look to China / Economics / Money Supply
By: Chris_Galakoutis
Like the earmark hidden so deep inside a new appropriations bill committee report that it takes a magnifying glass to find, so too the lengths we apparently need to go in figuring out the degree of money supply growth in the US.
But is it really such a mystery?
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Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Bernanke's Mission Impossible- To Boost the Economy To Win the Election / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ben Bernanke's Mission Impossible is to deliver a favorable economic climate conducive towards a Republican election victory in November 2008,
The mission requires the US Fed to -
- abandon the defense of the dollar,
- to abandon the fight against inflation,
- to prop up the ailing banking system by as much money as is required (money supply),