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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Why US Interest Rate Cuts if GDP is Growing by 5%? / Economics / US Interest Rates

By: Andy_Sutton

Overall, the Federal Reserve must be given decent marks for keeping up appearances in the wake of the onset of the largest credit crisis in US history. For the situation is now ubiquitous, wreaking havoc in virtually every market. True to form, the Fed has continued to modify its statements, perceptions all in an attempt to manage the public's confidence in the fact that yes, they are still in control of the economy. There have been, however, an increasing number of discrepancies and important issues emerging over the past several weeks and some startling but expected developments.

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Economics

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Beating the Credit Cycle - The Battle Between Debt & Recession / Economics / US Debt

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...The Fed & the White House will do whatever it takes. But will that be enough to defeat recession for ever and ever...?"

SO THERE IS TO BE no let up or truce in the war between debt and recession. The cannon-fodder of consumer credit – the battle-weary consumers themselves – must push ahead with the Christmas offensive. The United States , standing shoulder to shoulder with its partners in Britain , will stay in the trenches until the job is completed.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2007

Inevitable Demise of the Debt Based US Dollar / Economics / US Dollar

By: The_Big_Fisherman

From Fear to Horror - With the bi-polar behavior of the financial markets these past few months, it is sometimes best to remember back to when the unfolding of current events was seen only by the heretics. It is at this point in time where they had the least biased view of the history now being made. These mavens were few, and the ramifications of their insight were but distant theory. And perhaps only they properly recognize the extent of the horror now confronting those trapped inside the nanny-state bubble. Cooing pundits and those that soften the hard edges are not to be trusted.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

US Consumer Confidence Heads South Signaling Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the second installment of our special two day Outside the Box letter, we have good friend Greg Weldon's giving us his thoughts in his regular "Weldon's Money Monitor." Consumer expenditures account for approximately 2/3rds of U.S. GDP. A precursor to any underlying changes in consumer expenditures is consumer sentiment. Greg explains to us the state of the American consumer and how current federal and institutional initiatives will not help thwart the looming recession. You can read his work at www.weldononline.com .

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Unbroken , Australia''s Voters “Fix” Her Anyway By Electing Kevin Rudd / Economics / Austrailia

By: Chip_Hanlon

Political challengers, you just saw a great example of how to run against an incumbent when things in your country are perfect, a seemingly impossible task: convince voters there is essentially no difference between your ideas and those of the incumbent. This strategy was just worked to perfection in Australia , where a week ago the liberal Labour Party's Kevin Rudd was elected as the country's new prime minister, unseating the long-ruling conservative, John Howard.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Importance of the Gold Standard - US Economy: Deficits, Foreign Debt and Monetary Policy / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems that it was only yesterday that economic commentators were almost hysterical over the US economy's trade deficit. Added to that was the view that the country's growing foreign debt would bring the economy down. Now that the deficit is shrinking fewer people are drawing attention to it, though they still harp on about the foreign debt

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Is the Fed Too Late to Head Off a US Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the ongoing weakness of many of the key leading indicators spurred on by the subprime mortgage debacle, has the U.S. already started to slip into a recession? We know the housing and banking sectors remain in a free fall with no apparent evidence of a bottom and that consumer confidence has dramatically declined in recent months. But is that the signal of the start? And what is the definition of a recession?

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Economics

Sunday, December 02, 2007

The Grand Sale of American Assets Such as 5% of Citicorp to Abdu Dhabi / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Turn on the evening news in most cities recently and you will see images of rows of homes, many for sale, many with foreclosure signs in the front yards. On weekends the tables come out and are strategically placed in the driveway heavily laden with the possessions of the soon-to-be-prior occupants of the home. These are selling off anything they can muster to scrape together rent for the next roof over their heads, the next car payment, or the next VISA bill. Most observers look at this and have at least a pang of pity or perhaps take a moment to be thankful for their good fortune.

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Economics

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Are We Heading for Hyperinflation or Deflation? - At Philosophical Crossroads / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor some unfathomable reason, the human mind tends to think in terms of extremes. For example: “Death or Glory”, “Success or Failure”, “Accelerating growth or Collapse”.

Thus, the questions being asked in today's financial world seem to be revolving around whether we are facing “hyperinflation or depression”. All of which begs the questions: Why does it have to be at one or the other extreme? Why can't there be something in between? Alternatively, why can't there be a paradigm shift which renders the very question irrelevant?

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2007

The Era of Credit Driven Consumer Spending Comes to an End / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

In an article this week that examined the troubles brewing in Citigroup's mortgage business, the Wall Street Journal focused on Natalie Brandon, a 51 year old married woman from Granada Hills, CA, who is currently unable to make the payments on her $625,000 adjustable rate home loan from Citigroup, despite the fact that the rate will not even reset higher until June of next year. Amazingly, the Journal reported that Mrs. Brandon bought the house in 1985 for just $105,000, but had chosen to refinance five times over the past seven years, borrowing more than $500,000 and spending every single penny. While this may be an extreme example of American profligacy, it is by no means unique. Unfortunately this type of behavior typifies everything that is wrong with the modern American economy.

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Economics

Thursday, November 29, 2007

US Fed Behind the Economic and Housing Curve / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Federal Reserve is behind the curve. Great consequences have resulted and are likely to continue to result. Many words can be used to describe this group. What come to mind are inept, compromised, corrupted, distracted, ill-trained, but also clueless, deceptive, myopic, overly cautious, and off the market in their focus. When they remain transfixed on economic growth versus price inflation, they are stuck in the past, in a world that no longer exists. The corrupt spew of fraudulent mortgage bonds disseminated throughout the investment community has both crippled the banking system from profound distrust, and inhibited the USEconomy from credit supply fraught with obstacles. With their irresponsibly slow reaction to significant threats to the entire economic and financial system, the hapless USFed has put several things at grave risk. Since mid-September, the USFed has cut the official rate twice by a total of 75 basis points (0.75%), and reduced the discount rate.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

United States Diseased Monetary Bloodstream / Economics / Money Supply

By: Professor_Emeritus

Invited Address Delivered on November 18, 2007, in Torrance, California,  to a Joint Session of the Positive Deviant Network and the Flight to Genius movement:

Dear Fellow Deviants, Dear Fellow Travelers standing by for the next flight to Genius, Ladies and Gentlemen: Synergy Be With You!

One of the truly spectacular sights is from the airplane as it makes its approaches to Los Angeles International Airport at dusk. Down below is the illuminated “live” map of Los Angeles with its winding and intersecting freeways, with an endless flow of white headlights and an opposite flow of red tail-lights. It reminds me of the human bloodstream with its flow of white and red blood corpuscles. As I was flying in the other day I could not help but contemplate that possibly just a handful in a million people down there may realize what a fatal year 2007 has been, as the rest are completely oblivious to the great dangers awaiting the world on this Thanksgiving Day.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Leading Indicators: Part 1- U.S. Economic Health is Weakening / Economics / US Economy

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter almost five years of easy continuous expansion, the cracks are beginning to show in the U.S. economy. From a failing U.S. dollar to deep investor fears in the housing market to ever louder concerns over the twin deficits. This article examines three key indicators and their implications in 2008.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

The Red Queen US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_Petillo

"Well, in our country," said Alice (of Lewis Carroll's "Through the Looking-Glass" fame), still panting a little, "you'd generally get to somewhere else — if you run very fast for a long time, as we've been doing."

"A slow sort of country!" said the Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"

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Economics

Monday, November 26, 2007

US Recession Avoidable - The Falling US Dollar and the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

What a week that was. Australia's conservative government gets thrashed by a bunch of unioncrats, lefty journalists and an economic illiterate with intellectual pretensions while at the same time as the US dollar goes high diving. These are certainly interesting times.

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Economics

Monday, November 26, 2007

Market Fundamentalism and the Tyranny of US Monetary System / Economics / Money Supply

By: Richard_C_Cook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecommendations for Reform of the US Monetary System

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights,
that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

1. What We Must Do Today
“Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” are, or should be, the fruits of democracy. But the political democracy defined by the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution has not been achieved because economic democracy has not been achieved. The attainment of real economic democracy is the next task for the American people.

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Economics

Monday, November 26, 2007

UK Inflation Forecast 2008 (RPI and CPI) / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe recent up tick in UK inflation has sparked inflation concerns to continue going into 2008. However the Market Oracle anticipated the recent up tick as a consequence of money supply growth earlier in the year as an indicator of future inflation and that the up tick would prove temporary as many factors converge towards deflationary pressures during 2008 that will allow the Bank of England to start cutting UK interest rates towards a target of 5% before the decline in UK inflation starts and for UK inflation to subsequently fall towards the Market Oracle targets of 3% RPI and 1.8% CPI towards the end of 2008.

The following analysis presents some of the key factors that will result in the fall in UK Inflation during 2008.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Is the US Economy Facing a Credit Crunch? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Every time an economic crisis seems to be on the horizon you can bet your last dollar that scores of advisers will be warning that a drop in consumer confidence will cause a fall in consumer demand which will drive the economy into recession. For the umpteenth time, business spending drive the economy and not consumption. The Bureau of Economic Analysis now includes intermediate goods in its calculations, producing what it calls “gross output”. This figure shows business spending at about 50 per cent of aggregate spending. My own calculations put total spending at about $30 trillion

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Economics

Monday, November 19, 2007

Australia’s Plummeting Unemployment: Miracle or Good Economics? / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

Australia’s seems to be facing the happy prospect of unemployment falling to 4 per cent or less. What was once thought to be impossible has become the mundane. How can this be? We have been told year after year that the jobless were doomed to be always with us because it would require a savage cut in real wage rates to restore full employment (Gittins Gregory). Therefore it would not only be heartless to cut real wages but also suicidal. I said at the time that this view was absolute rubbish. Time has once again proved me correct.

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Economics

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Real US Inflation is 6% Not 2% Implying Stagflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this issue:
  • How do You Spell Stagflation?
  • Cooking the Inflation Books
  • Gaming the Producer Price Index
  • Consumer Spending is Up, but then Again, It May Be Down
  • A Two Dimensional Problem
  • Saudi Justice
  • New York, Toronto, Europe and Thanksgiving

This week we look at inflation. Is it just over 2%, giving the Fed room to cut rates, or will it be closer to 4% by the next FOMC meeting, making a rate cut problematic? How do they get those numbers? When and how can two opposite things be true at the same time? The answer depends on how many dimensions you are living in when you are asking the question. The Fed is going to be faced with a very difficult decision at its next meeting, and there results of there deliberations will be felt by you.

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