Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Saving as the Source of Most Spending and the Implications for the 'Economic Stimulus Package' / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Standing Keynesian GDP on its head: Saving Not Consumption as the Main Source of Spending - Professor George Reisman writes: According to the prevailing Keynesian dogma, consumption is the main form of spending in the economic system, while saving is mere non-spending and thus a 'leakage' from the spending stream. This dogma underlies much of government economic policy in the United States, including the so-called economic stimulus package that has just been enacted. In this article, I prove, to the contrary, that consumption is not the main form of spending in the economic system and that the source of most spending is, in fact, saving. I prove my claims by starting with the very formulations of the expenditure aggregates presented by the Keynesian doctrine itself.
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Bernanke's State of the US Economy Speech: "You are all Dead Ducks!" / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Even veteran Fed-watchers were caught off-guard by Chairman Bernanke's performance before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Bernanke was expected to make routine comments on the state of the economy but, instead, delivered a 45 minute sermon detailing the afflictions of the foundering financial system. The Senate chamber was stone-silent throughout. The gravity of the situation is finally beginning to sink in. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 15, 2008
US Recession Debate Turns Toward Inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Michael_Pento
The debate over the "R" word has been the focus on Wall St. for months on end. This obsession over whether the degree of the economic slowdown will in fact reach the technical definition of recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP) is unproductive for the average investor. What investors need to know is that while economic growth is clearly weak, inflation is rising and that the current value of the stock market has not priced this in. Meanwhile, the Fed's response to this crisis is causing great harm to investors and could lead to hyperinflation in the long term.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 15, 2008
Economic Stimulus Packages Overdosing Could Ignite Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Peter_Schiff
In perhaps one of biggest ironies to ever to come out of Washington, this week Congress simultaneously pilloried major league baseball players for using artificial stimulants to pump up their performance while passing legislation to do just that to the national economy. Am I the only one laughing?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Financial Destiny of United States is in China's Hands / Economics / US Economy
By: Professor_Emeritus
Uncle Sam is Crying "Uncle" - Tertium datur - People tend to think in terms of black-and-white. Many of my correspondents think that either hyperinflation or deflation is in store for the dollar; tertium non datur (no third possibility given). I would say tertium datur . The third possibility is a hybrid of hyperinflation and deflation. I described this scenario in my previous article “Opening the Mint to Gold and Silver”. It is possible, even probable, that we shall witness collapsing world trade and collapsing world employment together with competitive currency devaluations, as the three superpowers compete in trying to corner gold. The lure of gold is very strong. “There is no fever like gold fever” and, contrary to conventional wisdom, governments are especially susceptible. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2008
Are Interest Rates Driving the Economy into Recession? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
Interest rates are rising and it looks as if the Rudd Government is beginning to panic, a sign of which was Treasurer Wayne Swan's silly threat to banks not to be greedy by raising interest rates. This would be funny if it were not so serious. It is abundantly clear that our Treasurer is at a complete loss to understand what is really happening with interest rates. Unfortunately for Australia the same can be said about our economic pundits.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2008
The Greatest Danger to the US Economy is the Fed / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: Gerard_Jackson
As I have said a number of times, the real economic problem that confronts the world today -- and that includes the US -- is lousy economics. Bernanke has made it clear that he follows fallacious line that it is the role of central banks to manipulate interest rates. We now have Charles Plosser, Philadelphia Fed President, stating that Bernanke's "aggressive rate cuts" will put the US on a growth trend of about 2.7 per cent by 2009. However, he claims that "if something can tip us into recession, the housing market is the biggest risk". Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2008
US Recession - Massive Credit Crunch Beating US Government and Fed Flood of Liqudity / Economics / Recession
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'm no longer a huge football fan, and I'm not much of a political junkie, either. But this past week's action really got my blood pumping.
The Patriots and Giants slugged things out for four long quarters. Deep passes into the secondary. Crushing sacks in the backfield. Power running and smashmouth blocking. It was a great game up until the bitter end.
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Saturday, February 09, 2008
Flying the Chinese-Made American Flag to Stimulate the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Walter_Brasch
Walking down Main Street, pushing a grocery cart loaded with clothes, toys, and appliances was Marshbaum. Fastened to the right front corner of the cart was an American flag tied onto a three-foot ruler.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Credit Crisis is Getting Worse as ISM Services Survey Falls out of Bed / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- Consumers, Credit, and Complications
- Unemployment is Understated
- The Credit Crisis is Simply Getting Worse
- The Falling Knife of Credit Spreads
- Capital Ratios Are Under More and More Pressure
- The ISM Services Survey Simply Falls out of Bed
- Upgrades, Orlando, and a Proud Dad
The evidence continues to mount that the US is in a recession. In this week's letter, we will look at the blind spot in the unemployment statistics, the continuing meltdown in the credit markets, and the simply awful service sector implosion in the ISM data, and then add a few thoughts on the housing market. There is a lot of data to cover, so this week's letter should be particularly interesting. The letter will print longer than normal, since there are lots of graphs.
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Saturday, February 09, 2008
The Great Depression 2008 - It can't happen to us....can it?” / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andy_Sutton
Webster's defines complacency as “1.satisfaction or contentment 2. smug self-satisfaction” There is probably not a better word to describe the current state of perception with regard to economic and financial malady. I had an interesting conversation the other night about exactly this topic and the individual I was speaking with had an overriding belief that we cannot suffer economically simply because the current generation is not prepared to deal with it. While I certainly agree with the latter assertion, the former continues to baffle me. I am certainly not prepared to deal with a lengthy hospital stay as the result of a horrific car crash, but that alone doesn't cloak me in immunity from having an accident. The reasoning is so broken and flawed, yet it is often all we get in terms of a perception of what is going on. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2008
US Recession WIll Kill Inflation - Lies to Destroy the Value of Your Money / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The US recession is sure to send inflation to zero – just like it didn't in four of the last five recessions..."
WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION...? Oh stop your carping and set an extra place at dinner for the fast-looming recession instead.
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Thursday, February 07, 2008
The Bush Financial and Economic Bust of 2008 - The Destruction of Capital / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Whitney
" I just saw a picture Bernanke stripped to the waist in the boiler-room shoveling greenbacks into the furnace .” Rob Dawg, Calculated Risk blog-site
On January 14, 2008 the FDIC web site began posting the rules for reimbursing depositors in the event of a bank failure. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is required to “determine the total insured amount for each depositor....as of the day of the failure” and return their money as quickly as possible. The agency is “modernizing its current business processes and procedures for determining deposit insurance coverage in the event of a failure of one of the largest insured depository institutions.” ( http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2008/fil08002.html#body )
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Thursday, February 07, 2008
The Dichotomy of the US Economic Downturn / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
We crave transparency but once we have it we tend to no longer want it. We seek information, but once we get the news we react poorly. We look for some signs from a time past hoping that what once happened could possibly shed light on what is. But this time it is different.
At no time in recent history have we been confronted by so much conflicting information, cloaked appraisals of where we are and where we are headed, veiled attempts at regaining normalcy or risk with as little risk as possible and all this while we have two economies running side-by-side. One economy, that according to Mr. Bush is doing just fine and the other one, the rest of us live with each day.
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Thursday, February 07, 2008
Response to Subprime Article by Nobel Prize Winner Joseph Stiglitz / Economics / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: John_Lee
Mr. Joseph E Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner in 2001 for his work on the economics of information, recently attended the World Economic Forum in Davos and wrote an article published on February 5th, 2008 titled:
Sub-prime crisis has led to the humbling of America.
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Thursday, February 07, 2008
Case Shiller Home Price Index the Leading Indicator of Economic Downturn / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
By popular demand, the collection of charts featuring the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index has been updated. First, the home price index versus one of stupidest things that economists have ever dreamed up - the home ownership cost substitute used in the consumer price index, otherwise known as "owners' equivalent rent". Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Opening the Mint to Gold and Silver - Last Chance to Stabalise the US Dollar! / Economics / Money Supply
By: Professor_Emeritus
A sequel to "The Double Whammy of Geopolitical Global Gold Games" - In my last article I suggested that the superpowers China, Russia, and the United States may be, without they knowing it, racing towards reopening their Mints to the monetary metals. The governments of these countries are like the heroes of Greek tragedies: they are drawn to their fate by destiny. There is no way for them to avoid Kismet, regardless of what they do. Many readers have asked me to explain what the term "opening the Mint to the unlimited coinage of gold and silver free of seigniorage charges" means. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Is Monetary Policy Destroying Our Manufacturing Base? / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
In both America and Australia the fear that the manufacturing base is shrinking to the detriment of the economy seems to garner more by the week. Australia's Labor Government has expressed the opinion that the fall in manufacturing as a proportion of GDP is of deep concern. Our so-called free market commentators mock this view, arguing that it is a historical trend that merely indicates that consumer demand has largely moved from manufacturing to services, and this is only to expected as an economy grows richer. In defence of this viewpoint they invoke the law of diminishing marginal utility. This law states that demand for a good will fall as more of it is produced. Hence the shift to services.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
US Panic Interest Rate Cuts and the US Economic Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Harold Wilson once said that "a week in politics is a long time". Well, that goes double for economies. Last week I said " against my better judgement " that the report on US manufacturing by the Institute for Supply Management was painting a rather grim picture that showed manufacturing was contracting.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
US in Recession - Rising Unemployment and Slowing Consumer Spending / Economics / Recession
By: John_Mauldin
- What Does a Recession Look Like?
- The Starbucks Index
- Consumer Spending Slows Down
- Rising Unemployment Starts to Show Up
- It is All About Valuations
- Phoenix, Prime Rib and My Conference
What does a recession look like? How does it feel? What does it mean for your life and your investments? We explore these questions and more in this week's letter. I have been working on this letter all week, and think you will find it interesting.
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