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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

First Comes Denial – And Then Acceptance / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Captain_Hook

Below is an excerpt from a commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Tuesday, April 10, 2007

It's no secret markets are dramatically affected by investor psychology. And it's also no secret the right investor psychology can cause prices to soar with a healthy liquidity backdrop, as was the case with both the tech bubble in 2000, and in real estate more recently. In fact, given participation rates in both of these bubbles was so high, it would not be a stretch to categorize them as manias in the truest sense of the word.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Economic Armageddon Is Coming / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn

Stop being a compliant consumer. Face the ugly truth. Don't get fooled by the stock market. Accept the need for the mistreated middle class to become the revolutionary class. The British military establishment's most prestigious think tank sees what too few over-consuming Americans are willing to anticipate. Unjustified and mounting economic inequality is planting the seeds for global economic conflict.

Here is what the new report from the UK Defense Ministry's Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre warned might happen by 2035. "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class. The growing gap between themselves and a small number of highly visible super-rich individuals might fuel disillusion with meritocracy, while the growing urban under-classes are likely to pose an increasing threat...Faced by these twin challenges, the world's middle-classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest."

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Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Chicago Fed Index Points To Weak GDP Report On Friday / Economics / US Housing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Chicago Fed publishes a monthly national economic activity index (CFNAI). With the release of its March index today, we can now calculate an average for the first quarter. And that first quarter average is minus 0.30 - the lowest quarterly average reading since Q2:2003 and the third consecutive quarterly contraction in the CFNAI. All of this points to another quarter of subpar real GDP growth for the first quarter, which already is expected by the consensus of forecasters.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Conundrum that is China / Economics / China Economy

By: Paul_Petillo

There are currently two undeniable truths in this new global marketplace: The US will buy what it wants with borrowed money and the Chinese have so far enabled that buying spree by loaning us the cash.

China has become an economic enigma. Growth in the country is running over 11% and inflation, now at 3.3%, slightly over what China considers reasonable, is beginning to increase much to the dismay of the Communist government.

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Economics

Sunday, April 22, 2007

U.K. Inflation – Government and Bank of England "Misleading Public" Says Gold-Market Analyst / Economics / Inflation

By: PRWeb

The British public is being misled about what's driving the current surge in the cost of living, said a leading gold-market analyst today. "Blaming energy prices is little better than a lie," according to Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault.com.

"First Tony Blair tried it, now Mervyn King at the Bank of England is trying it."

"But oil and gas prices are not to blame for the latest jump in the inflation rate. The problem instead is runaway growth in the money supply, caused by record low interest rates."

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Economics

Saturday, April 21, 2007

LEI and KRWI Signal Imminent Recession, Is it Different This Time? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The bulls on the economy had better hope it's different this time because both the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and the Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator (KRWI) are sending out recession warning signals now that March data are available. As I discussed in earlier commentaries (see The Econtrarian " Recession Imminent? Both the LEI and the KRWI are Flashing Warning " and The Econtrarian " When The Facts Change, I Change My Model - What Do You Do? "), year-over-year contractions in the quarterly average level of the LEI usually presage recessions, as shown in Chart 1.

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Economics

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Subprime mortgage contagion, earnings shortfalls, a slowdown in consumer spending - What? Me Worry? / Economics / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: John_Mauldin

This week I am in La Jolla for my annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-hosted by my partners Altegris Investments. This week's letter is the basis for the speech I will be giving Saturday afternoon on a few of the items in my long-term worry closet.

What? Me Worry?

It will come as no surprise to this audience that there are a few things that worry me. I often write about problems in the markets. Subprime mortgage contagion, earnings shortfalls, a slowdown in consumer spending are all on my worry list.

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Economics

Friday, April 20, 2007

Its Inflation Stupid as Wall Street celebrates benign CPI Report / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Ding Dong the Witch isn't Dead - With this week's release of an apparently benign CPI report, Wall Street resembled Munchkin Land  celebrating the death of the Wicked Witch of Inflation. Amidst the revelry few spared much concern that the Index actually registered a monthly gain of .6%. Since such a rise equates to an annualized inflation rate of 7.5%, how could the Wall Street Lollipop Guild be so euphoric?  Simple; to pronounce the Witch sincerely dead, one needs only to consistently strip out marginally needed items such as food and energy.  Without these "distractions" the core CPI increase can be shown to be only .1%: “way” below the .2% that had been forecast.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Global Warming - What price saving the Earth? / Economics / Climate Change

By: Adrian_Ash

"...It should come as no surprise to find Wall Street urging us to go green. There's money to be made – tax-funded profits squeezed out of guilt-ridden consumers and PR-hungry business..."

NOT CONTENT with abolishing the economic cycle, the world's central bankers and finance ministers – led by Gordon Brown and ordained by Pope Al Gore the First – now plan a 'New World Order' to fight global warming.

A wealth of tax-funded humbug is certain to follow. So it comes as no surprise to find Wall Street and the City of London urging us all to "go green" as well.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

The US Dollar and Chinas Impending Recession, Part I / Economics / China Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

There is a great deal of hot air being blown about -- particularly from that pack of economic illiterates commonly called politicians, especially Democrats. Their line is simple and to the point: China has manipulated the exchange rate so as to artificially lower the price of her manufactures at the expense of American industry. In other words, hapless Chinese taxpayers are being forced to subsidise American consumers. (Complaints about this alleged policy are particularly rich coming from Democrats: the people who made careers out of offering free lunches to the American public).

It is true that something bad is going on in the Chinese economy, but it is not subsidised exports. China is undergoing a massive inflation-led boom that can only result in severe distress. Let us look at some statistics, the sort our economic commentariat ignore. The latest monetary aggregates show that M2 increased by "16.9 per cent year on year in 2006". (M2 consists of currency and deposits).

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Economics

Friday, April 13, 2007

Yes the FOMC is Predominently Concerned about Inflation, BUT... / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a baseline forecast that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow this year somewhat below the economy's potential growth rate, which the FOMC perceives to be about 2-3/4%, and core consumer inflation will gradually move lower toward the 2% upper bound of the FOMC's “comfort zone.” That's the baseline forecast. But since the end of January, the FOMC has grown more concerned about inflation overshooting and real economic growth undershooting their respective forecasts.

In a sense, the Fed is caught on the horns of a dual mandate – to promote full employment along with price stability. We believe that this dual-mandate dilemma will be resolved early in the second half of this year. That is, we expect the FOMC to become predominantly more concerned with full employment and less concerned about price stability.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Leading Economic Indicator attacked for signaling sluggish GDP growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

When The Facts Change, I Change My Model - What Do You Do?

On March 22, I published a commentary entitled" US Recession Imminent? Both the Leading Economic Indicators and the KRWI are Flashing Warning Signs ". The LEI refers to the index of Leading Economic Indicators published by the Conference Board. The KRWI (Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator) is something I happened on in my independent research.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The US Economy: Is Manufacturing and the Yield Curve Signalling Recession? / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Gerard_Jackson

The US yield curve is giving a lot of economic commentators the jitters. The rule is that whenever the yield curve goes negative, i.e., short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates, a recession emerges some 12 to 18 months later. There was a great deal of hand-wringing in late 2005 when the yield turned negative. Recently the curve has started to flatten, with some commentators now predicting that it will once again go positive and give the US economy another spurt of growth.

The odd thing here is that the economic commentariat do not seem to realize that in a truly free market the yield curve would always tend to be flat. If a difference between long-term and short-term rates emerged then arbitrage would eliminate the difference. Say, for instance, short-term rates began to rise, then investors would desert long-term rates in favour of short-term rates. This would see short-term rates fall and long-term rates rise until the curve was flat.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The Federal Reserve Monopoly over Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Recently I had the opportunity to question Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when he appeared before the congressional Joint Economic committee. The topic that morning was the state of the American economy, and many of my colleagues raised questions about how the Fed might better "regulate" things to ease fears of an economic downturn. The tenor of my colleagues' questions suggested that Mr. Bernanke's job is nothing less than to run the U.S. economy, like some kind of Soviet central planner.

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Economics

Saturday, April 07, 2007

The US Economy financed by debt and excessive speculation - Cliff-Risk Nation / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_J_Panzner

In the credit derivatives market, certain instruments are exposed to what is known as "cliff risk." This ominous sounding phrase describes a situation where the last in a series of adverse developments obliterates the value of what was only recently viewed as a triple-A-rated security. Up until that point, however, rating agencies, investors, and bankers assume that circumstances will eventually right themselves and that the principal will be paid in full, in spite of whatever bad news might have come along beforehand.

This latter way of thinking is not confined to the nether world of complex securities with tongue-twisting names like CDOs-squared. In many respects, it describes a point-of-view that permeates many aspects of modern financial life. Increasingly, Americans have taken it for granted that good times beget more of the same and they have acted accordingly. If bad news comes along, the damage is absorbed. Unlike with some toxic derivatives, however, many believe that if circumstances do manage to take a turn for the worse, something can always be done about it.

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Economics

Thursday, April 05, 2007

US Economy - No More Legs to Stand On / Economics / UK Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

As investors and market strategists sift through every new economic tea leaf for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, I am reminded of a group of railroad engineers discussing the structural qualities of the track bed while an overloaded fright train careens around a sharp turn. For those not lost in the inconsequential minutia, a severe recession is an outright certainty, regardless of what current statistics might indicate on a day-to-day basis.

Since the bursting of the dot.com bubble, the U.S. economy has been fueled by an enormous consumer spending spree. This largess has been artificially propped up by the largest real estate bubble in U.S. history. In fact, housing has acted as a three-legged stool upon which American consumers have been precariously perched. Those legs are: 1) home equity extractions; 2) adjustable rate mortgages; 3) the wealth effect.

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Economics

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Risk of Stagflation - Key Charts and Major Clues / Economics / Gold & Silver

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Some extremely important charts follow, each with an equally important message. The story can be told from a series of painted pictures. The USEconomy is in deep trouble. The US Federal Reserve is caught in a box. Bankers are one step from being snared in a quagmire, with vivid memories of the insolvent bank system endured by Japan for over a full decade.

The US bank problems seem worse by comparison, when factoring in mortgages, huge spread trades sure to go bad, a mountain of credit derivatives growing at 80% annually in size, and a raft of collateralized debt obligations sitting like an ominous cloud. The Bank of Japan simply cannot continue with rate hikes, given the vulnerable shaky state of all matters financial on a global basis. Gold and silver are moving to center stage, undeterred by the recent shock waves. The main shock is to the Powers That Be (King Henry & His Court of Market Manipulators), who are losing grip at the helm. A wider war, surely beneficial for many private interests, would kill the future economic prospects.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Financial Markets - Time to Pay Attention, China Trade War, Housing, Iran and more / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Martenson

There's so much happening in the markets both financially and geopolitically, that I hardly know where to begin.

Probably the most shocking news of the week was not the tension in the Middle East around Iran. No, as disturbing as is the possibility of another shooting war in immediate proximity to 25% of the world's daily oil shipments, the reality of a trade war with China announced on Friday (March 30 th , 2007) was even more disturbing:

The Bush administration, facing heavy pressure to deal with soaring trade deficits, will impose economic sanctions against China as a way of protecting American paper producers from unfair Chinese government subsidies, a Commerce Department official said Friday.

The action will reverse 20 years of U.S.trade policy by treating China, which is classified as a nonmarket economy, in the same way that other U.S. trading partners are treated in disputes involving government subsidies.

The decision was to be announced by Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. Department official said Friday.

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Economics

Monday, April 02, 2007

The Dynamics of Deflation - The Golden Thorn in the Flesh - Part 1 / Economics / Deflation

By: Professor_Emeritus

Soldiers throwing away ammunition before combat - The guessing game among gold market analysts is still on: will central banks resume gold dumping or won't they, as the price of gold takes another shot at $700? In arguing the case pro and con, virtually all analysts miss one important point. Central bank sales of gold against the backdrop of deflation looming in the horizon is akin to soldiers throwing away ammunition just before combat. They should be doing the exact opposite. Soldiers should replenish their supply of ammunition. Central banks should reinforce their balance sheets by purchasing gold (as indeed several important ones, including those of China and Russia, are on record of doing).

This is the only way to keep the powder dry. In a deflation it may be necessary to inject massive amounts of new credit into the system, but the only way to make the national currency more plentiful without weakening it (let alone destroying it) is through gold purchases. They are by far the most effective weapon of a central bank to combat deflation. Are we to assume that our central bankers are dummies who do not know this piece of elementary truth?

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Economics

Saturday, March 31, 2007

The Root Cause Of Unemployment Part 2: Real Bills of Exchange and Employment / Economics / Money Supply

By: Professor_Emeritus

A REVISIONIST THEORY AND HISTORY OF MONEY

In Part I we elaborated on the thesis of the German economist Heinrich Rittershausen that the appalling world-wide unemployment of the 1930's was caused by the coercive legal tender laws of 1909. The chain of causation is as follows: the French and German governments, in preparation for the coming war, wanted to concentrate gold in their own coffers. They stopped paying civil servants in gold coin. To make this practice legal they had to enact legislation that gave bank notes legal tender status.

Scarcely did these governments realize that in doing so they set a slow process into motion which, in the end, destroyed the wage fund out of which workers could be paid even before merchandise has been sold to the ultimate consumer. In this second part we examine in greater detail how the wage fund was financed before 1909. We shall see that the bill market is just the clearing system of the gold standard. If disabled, sooner or later the gold standard will collapse as a result.

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