Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
California Leads Way For the US Consumer Bust / Economics / Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
The International Herald Tribune reports Californians leading the way to consumer bust .
As it did when the housing bubble began to burst, California is leading the way in the next leg: a consumer bust.
Squeezed by rising unemployment, inflation in food and energy costs and plunging home values, Californians are cutting back on spending. Besides causing woes for state and local government, the cutback is giving California's economy another knock and makes further job losses, home repossessions and banking problems more likely.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Rampant Money Supply Growth and Inflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Zeal_LLC
Due to all kinds of prices rising to levels that would have seemed inconceivable only a few years ago, inflation concerns are mushrooming today. And if there is anyone still not worried about inflation yet, they soon will be. Rising food and energy costs really affect the daily lives of nearly everyone on the planet.
But inflation is woefully misunderstood, even among financially-sophisticated folks who should know better. I've heard Chairmen of the Federal Reserve, elite Wall Street analysts, and countless news-media personalities claim rising prices are inflation . This common misperception is flat-out wrong. Rising prices alone are not necessarily inflation. Inflation is purely and exclusively a monetary phenomenon.
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Saturday, May 17, 2008
Inflation and the Fed Interest Rate Policy to Continue to Drive the Dollar Lower / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The interesting and generally questionable conclusions in the April consumer price report provided a false sense of comfort in global financial markets that we believe will be temporary. The finding that the cost of domestic gasoline fell -2.0% month over month during a time when prices at the pump soared well above $4.0 per gallon in many areas was behind the modest official increase in the cost of living for the month. However, savvy market participants that follow the inflation data closely understand that the seasonal adjustments often tend to overshoot the true nature of the data and are prone to monthly revisions. We expect that the data in the coming months will be revised to reflect the reality of what is occurring in the price environment. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Government Inflation Data Does Not Match Reality / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
In an age where governments of every political stripe distort economic data to promote their own self-interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation statistics that are wildly at odds with the reality faced by consumers and businesses, and regarded with utter disbelief. In the latest US government report on inflation for instance, there was a glaring “seasonal adjustment,” for energy prices that cast great doubt as to the accuracy of the findings. US Labor Dept apparatchniks said consumer prices rose a smaller than expected 0.2% in April, tamed by energy prices, which were unchanged last month. Utilizing an obscure “seasonal adjustment,” Labor figured that gasoline prices actually fell 2% in April, which doesn't reflect the reality of what consumers were paying at the pump. Furthermore, the IMF's global food price index rose 43% over the last 12-months, but the US consumer price index for food is only 5.1% higher.
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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Japan Lost Decade Gives Way to th New Asian Reality / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
KYOTO, JAPAN - On one of my first mornings at our home here, my family and I headed for the Fushimi Inari Taisha shrine. Built in the 8th century by the powerful Hata family, the shrine is best known for the four consecutive kilometers of orange Torii gates covering the mountain on which it was built.
My wife's family has been coming here for centuries, making it a familiar and comfortable place that we enjoy very much.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The “BRICs” (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Browne
In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man!” Unfortunately, with the American economy now clearly showing its fragility, the rallying cry for today could be, “Go abroad!”
In the past quarter century, the center of wealth creation has steadily moved away from the United States and towards new foreign competitors, especially the so-called “BRIC” countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, where economic growth rates have greatly eclipsed the U.S. In recent years, this economic might has translated into much higher returns on their respective stock markets. These movements are creating a wave of real wealth that wise American investors cannot afford to miss.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
UK Flawed Inflation Measure Explodes Higher, 3% CPI, 4.2% RPI / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt higher to 3% in April from 2.5% in March, nearly hitting the Bank of England's letter writing trigger level of 3.1%. This confirms the Market Oracle expectations for a surge in UK inflation as not only the UK but all of the worlds major governments are engaged in the process of rampant money supply growth that is feeding through in higher inflation as too much cash is chasing too few goods. This is most visible in the commodities markets where strong price fundamentals coupled with the Bank of England's money supply printing presses running at full stream as evidenced by the £100 billion of new debt loaned to the banking sector in recent months.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
US Heading for Double-Digit Inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Nearly all the pieces are now in place for inflation to strike with increasing speed and fury, catching Wall Street by surprise, throwing government policy into turmoil and, at the same time, opening up broad opportunities for investors.
I know. I've seen this movie once before. And the script will forever be ingrained in my mind.
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Monday, May 12, 2008
US Recession 2000 Can tell us a lot about today's Economy / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
Some readers have been asking how "Austrian economic analysis held up during the last recession". Brilliantly, is the answer. It successfully described the emergence of the American recession and the pattern of rising unemployment and spending neatly fitted the Austrian explanation for the boom-bust cycle. Austrianism claimed that the contraction started in the higher stages of production and then worked its way down the production structure. Figures from the NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Management) in the middle 2000 gave considerable support to this view.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
Inflation Fear / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_J_Nolte
With all the hand wringing about consumer confidence falling to 25+ year lows, it becomes much easier to understand IF we make the assumption that we are in a recession. Others worry about the self-fulfilling prophesy – if we believe we are in a recession, it will be so. However much of what is happening today was planted over a year ago. This too is the reason for why all the rate cuts made by the Fed have had little impact upon investors and the economy. However, the cuts will eventually have an impact – but that is not likely until later in the year. A complicating factor in today's economy is the lack of lending “interest” by banking institutions. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 09, 2008
Credit Card Debt Ticking Time Bomb / Economics / US Debt
By: Peter_Schiff
For those holding out hope that the American economy can miraculously avoid a long and deep recession consumer credit is often viewed as the wonder drug that can cure all manner of economic ills. As such, this week's report showing $15 billion growth in consumer credit was widely heralded as proof of America's economic strength and resilience. However, we are now suffering the after effects of too much debt, and our salvation cannot be found in more of the same. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
The Bernanke Monetary Policy Conundrum Heading for a Crash / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
The Bernanke Monetary Policy Conundrum Heading for a Crash
With the US Federal Reserve cutting its Fed Fund Rate to 2%, presumably to aid the cost of borrowing and allow an expansion of lending that will lift the US economy from the doldrums you would expect to see an expansion of bank business. Not so according to the latest Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey which shows that banks are now actively avoiding the expansion of credit and it can be shown are deliberately causing a credit contraction.
This has profound meaning for the US and the wider global economy.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
The Great Consumer Shutdown of 2008- Wages Squeezed by Inflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Now that cheap money's vanished, where will consumers find enough cash to pay the bills...?"
THE CHEAP MONEY BUBBLE might have gone pop. But everywhere we look, the mischief of cheap money continues to cause mayhem for investors, savers, retirees, even school children.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
US Government Facing Fiscal Armageddon- US Dollar in Deep Trouble / Economics / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
When a president tells you the economy's OK and wannabe presidents tell you it's a disaster ... or when Wall Street pundits change their story almost daily ... I can understand how it may be tough to know what to believe ... and even tougher to decide what to do.
But when three respected government agencies put out reports and data that unanimously lead to the same conclusion about the most important factor in your financial future, there's no room for disbelief, no excuse for inaction.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Fixing The Credit Markets to Avoid Another Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week in Outside the Box we take up a topic that should be on the top of the agenda of every regulatory authority, executives at financial services firms of all types, and average investors: How do we fix the credit markets to make sure we do not have such a crisis again? Good friend Michael Lewitt of Hegemony Capital Management gives us his observations, some of which go further than I would personally like to see us go. But this is the conversation that must happen if we are to steer clear of future crises. It is clear to me now that a laissez faire approach to regulating certain financial instruments exposes the entire economy to risks much larger than the loss of a business here or there. While better disclosure is certainly appropriate, it is not enough. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Yes Virginia. This Is A Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
A preliminary report from the United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), claims American Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services – increased 3.15 percent or $111.0 billion in the first quarter of 2008 (versus the last quarter of 2007), to a level of $14,185.2 billion. That economic performance equates to an average annual year over year increase of 4.67% against Q1 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
US Fed Monetary Policy- Bernanke Gets It Wrong / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since the 2000 election America's leftwing mainstream media has tried to pump out a stream of bad economic news. According to this mob of political bigots recessions only happen under Republican presidents, completely ignoring the easily researched fact that the 2000 recession began under President Clinton. Now that so many indicators have turned negative the media are having a collective orgasm. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
Money Supply, Inflation, Deflation and Gold / Economics / Money Supply
By: John_Lee
Money serves as a medium of exchange and store of value. Price provides an important clearing mechanism in a society. Here we are going to explore the interesting dynamics between money and price. In a free market, when the quantity of money is fixed, the fact that the price of an apple is $1 and that of a Parker pen is $2 has tremendous implications. It takes knowledge, ingredients and time to grow an apple while it involves branding, material, and capital to produce a Parker pen. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
US Economic Stimulus Not a Silver Bullet / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
While pondering whether there is going to be a second half recovery on the basis of stimulus checks, let's first take a look at the possible repercussions of Cash-Out Refis Lowest in Four Years . Fifty-six percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans were cash-out refinances in the first quarter of 2008, the smallest percentage since Q2 in 2004, the GSE said Friday. First quarter's share compares starkly to the 77 percent share of refinancing posted just one quarter earlier, and underscores the new reality for most homeowners.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
The Great Depression of the 2010s / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Economics is not rocket science. Neither is power.Depressions are monetary phenomena caused by central bank issuance of excessive credit. In 1913, the newly created US central bank, the Federal Reserve, began issuing credit-based money in the US . Within ten years, the central bank flow of credit ignited the 1920s US stock market bubble; and shortly thereafter, following the collapse of the bubble in 1929, the world entered its first Great Depression in 1933.
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