Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Will Fed Actions and American Culture Prevent a Soft Depression? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Muddle Through Question - Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right of Me, Here I am Stuck in the Muddle Through Middle With You!
- A Soft Depression? Not.
- South Africa and Swiss Mountains
A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. But a lot of them fell into two basic camps. This week we look at a number of questions from readers about my thoughts on the Muddle Through Economy.
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Friday, April 18, 2008
The Collapse of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Recent high profile bankruptcies of mainstay American retailers, such as The Sharper Image and Linens ‘n Things, as well as the proposed mergers between Blockbuster/Circuit City and Delta/Northwest, and the admissions from the nation's leading student lenders that their business models are no longer viable, mark the beginning of a long overdue overhaul of the American economy. In short, the economy will be getting smaller and more expensive. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 18, 2008
Real Interest Rates Hit Minus 12.55% As Inflation Explodes! / Economics / Articles
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: If you've been following the news, you know the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates. The benchmark federal funds rate was 5.25% last summer. It's all the way down to 2.25% now, and chances are the Fed will cut that rate again when it concludes its next policy meeting on April 30. The only question is whether we'll get a quarter-point or half-point cut at this time. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Euro-Zone Combats Stagflation with Strong Euro, as Asia Riots on Food Inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Christopher_Laird
Inflation and stagflation, Euro, gold, and Asia Stagflation is behind the strong Euro, but also lots of general commodity inflation. Gold loves the stagflation mixture. If there is one gold bullish factor above all the others, it is if stagflation stays with us. Asia also has its very serious problems with inflation, namely food prices.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
US Actual Inflation Trend Heading for Stagflation or Deflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Jas_Jain
Inflationists have been crying wolf for the past three plus years despite the fact that the annualized headline CPI, including food and energy, and not seasonally adjusted, for 12M, 6M, and 3M has fluctuated around the 20-year trend of 3%+- (yes, the annualized inflation in the US for the past 20 years is 3.08%). As a matter of fact, despite huge run up in crude oil and agriculturals during the past year the CPI rates in the graph are below their highs during 2005-07. Labor costs are by far the most dominant contributor to the CPI. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
It is 1937 for the US Federal Reserve / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
This Letter is a follow on from my article The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve and US Govt are known in which, using the work of GB Eggertsson, we showed that the Fed/US Govt is following a plan to stimulate the economy and avoid a deflationary episode. Essentially the plan is to avoid the mistakes of the Depression and those of Japan in the 90's by using increased Government debt, monetized by the Fed, targeted directly at consumers. By employing a credible threat of an inflationary stance the Fed/US Govt hope to raise inflation expectations and therefore raise the price of assets.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
40 Years of Real Interest Rates and, 80 Years of Dow/Gold Ratio / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The infamous Dow/Gold Ratio just touched its long-run historic average. So which way next amid the Fed's inflationary melt-up...?"
IF WALL STREET STOCKS can surge 160 points on falling earnings, an 11% drop in housing starts, and a 16-year record for consumer-price inflation, then so can everything else that doesn't carry a picture of George Washington.
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The "Real" US Economy / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Everything was looking good until Friday. Instead of bringing good things to light, they turned out the lights on the nascent market rally and put everyone back on their heels. The GE report came after the government reported the trade deficit worsened the day before – without much fanfare. However, in our view the worsening trade deficit takes out one of the few remaining legs supporting the large multi-national companies, specifically that while domestic sales are down, the foreign sales should carry the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Problems Spread as US Recession Takes Hold / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
Last week, General Electric one of the finest companies in the world and an American icon, announced a major fall in earnings. Amazingly, the bad news surprised Wall Street, and GE shares fell 13 percent in a single day. Some surprise!
GE is one of the best-diversified and well managed companies on earth, and is seen as a barometer of both the US and the world economies. Its latest earnings report was impacted by the expected fall in financial services and a continued strength in overseas earnings. However, it also showed a largely unexpected fall in the sales of US medical devises as public and not-for-profit hospitals, suffering massive increases in their borrowing costs, cut back on spending.
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Save the US Economy and Rekindle Democracy by Giving the Workers a Raise / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
“ The bright new financial system, with all its talented participants, with all its rich rewards, has failed the test of the marketplace. " Former Fed Chief, Paul Volcker
A specter is haunting Wall Street---the specter of insolvency. One major player, Bear Stearns, has already gone under, and from the looks of it, another may be on the way. It's getting ugly out there. The so-called TED spread---which measures the willingness of banks to lend to each other---has begun to widen ominously suggesting that the money markets believe another body will be floating to the surface any day now.
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Why South Korea is set to Become the Biggest Economic Story of 2008 / Economics / South Korea
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Where should you put your money in 2008? And more importantly, how can you make money in 2008? These are not easy questions to answer. With the credit crunch sending shock waves around the globe, and the Fed's dismal attempts to solve the problem, these questions loom large ...
Fortunately, there are some good answers just waiting in the wings. One market in particular not only looks bulletproof, it is posting some of the fastest - and most consistent - productivity gains of all the Asian countries. In fact, this particular economy is one of the most competitive on the planet. And get this: It's dirt cheap, trading at a P/E of only 12.
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
The Great TV Price Inflation Scam / Economics / Inflation
By: Tim_Iacono
Anyone wanting to better understand one of the primary reasons why we are in such an economic mess these days need look no further than the history of television prices over the last half-decade or more.
Actually there are two versions of TV prices - the real world "in"-flation experience and the government's "de"-flation version.
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
G7 Income Collapse as Credit Crisis Moves from Wall Street to Main Street / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Wowee, things sure are unfolding quickly. Volatility is front and center as confusion reigns supreme in the broad investing public, driving them all over the place except to where they should be focusing. “Volatility is opportunity” and it is abundant, providing prepared investors with gargantuan opportunities. If you are not benefiting from it, “do more homework” or find a new advisor who does. The bear market in PAPER assets, or those underpinned by them, are in full retreat creating GIANT “fingers of instability” (see Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com ) which provide opportunities for astute investors. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
Brother Can You Spare $10 Grand? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Peter_Schiff
The grainy footage of Great Depression soup lines and Hoovervilles now in heavy rotation on the major news outlets has been largely counterbalanced by a parade of economists who reassure us that such a protracted downturn is currently inconceivable. Their confidence stems primarily from the belief that government safety nets enacted since the New Deal, together with a Fed chairman who is a self-professed depression buff, will prevent a replay of the 1930s. As usual, this analysis is woefully optimistic and sidewalk pencil sales may in fact be a growth industry. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
UK Manipulated Inflation Statistics Erodes Value of Savings / Economics / UK Economy
By: Adrian_Ash
"...A short-back and sides for the value of Sterling – Trim, trim! Snip, snip...!"
"ON THE DOWNSIDE," said the Bank of England when it trimmed UK interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, "the disruption in financial markets could lead to a slowdown in the economy sufficiently sharp to pull inflation below target."
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Friday, April 11, 2008
Falling US Dollar and Trouble with the Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Ever since the falling dollar really hit the radar screen of the mainstream media, one predictable, knee-jerk response was that this would be a miracle elixir for our ailing export economy. Further, they asserted, the weak dollar would cure the trade deficit. This is a prime example of what happens when textbook logic is used in place of reality. I dedicated the second edition of Economic Myth Busters back in September 2007 to the absurd notion that the weak dollar was good for the American economy. In the 6 months since the article some notable trends have developed.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Economic Data and Statistics- Distortions, Deceptions and Outright Lies / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Beware.
The greatest threat to your financial future is not the danger you see or the beast you know. It stems from all those realities that you don't see or don't know.
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Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Deficits Never Drove the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The myth that President Bush's deficits rescued the American economy from recession has taken root among some conservative economic commentators. (Of course, if you are a hardcore Democrat then Republican economic policies are always awful). This is a typical Keynesian response by people who should damn well know better.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve AND US Govt Are Known / Economics / Deflation
By: Mick_Phoenix
An interpretation of The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible by G B Eggertsson
Introduction - This is going to be a long letter. It will attempt to explain the rational behind the current and future US Federal Reserve intentions from the point of view of Central Bank thinking. Firstly, you will need a coffee, a comfortable chair and an open mind.
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Tuesday, April 08, 2008
US Job Less Report- Surprise!, Surprise!, Surprise! / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Market analysts are sounding like Gomer Pyle upon the release of the employment report – surprise, surprise, surprise! Not only did the headline job loss come in worse than expected, but also the revisions to past months shaved enough from the initial estimates to put the first three months of the year into negative territory. Investor's will need to get used to being disappointed, as a recessionary environment tends to bring out the worst in economic data. Dead ahead is first quarter earnings, with Alcoa stepping off first. Already earnings have declined by more than 10% from the peak last year and expectations are actually high (if excluding the financial sector) for a decent earnings season. While the large multi-national firms should do just fine (as exports are doing very well), we don't believe the current economic environment supports a generally strong earnings season.Read full article... Read full article...