Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Europe’s Economic Crash Landing / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
“Italy is now mathematically beyond the point of no return.” –Barclays Capital
November 11, 2011 -- The situation in Europe gets more depressing by the day. Policymakers have waited too long and now events are beyond their control. The only way to avert a disorderly breakup and another Great Depression is by deploying the European Central Bank (ECB) to backstop the debt of the individual countries, and even that might not work. New ECB chief Mario Draghi must announce his intention to keep interest rates down regardless of the cost. Blanket guarantees are the only way to stop the bleeding. But acting as lender of last resort will not stop the contagion; it will merely minimize the damage. The dissolution of the eurozone is a foregone conclusion. It’s only a matter of time. Here’s an excerpt from an article by Edward Harrison over at Credit Writedowns:
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Saturday, November 12, 2011
The End Of The Inventory Build Cycle Giving Birth to Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Tony_Pallotta
"If you build it, he will come" ~ Field Of Dreams
Demand begets supply. Supply then fuels demand. Probably the most simplistic way to look at the economic cycle.
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Friday, November 11, 2011
Gold Thoughts on Bursting Sovereign Debt Bubble and Keynesian Super Recession / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Rarely does one live through great events. Mostly we read about them in history books. But, we are today witnessing the bursting of the greatest bubble of all time. This is the big one. More than 70 years in the making, it was inevitable. Was it popular alchemy or just another case of junk science from academia?To prepare your thinking for surviving this momentous event consider the following headlines from tomorrow¹:
Friday, November 11, 2011
Italy in Recession, Industrial Production Plunges 4.8% GDP Likely Already Negative / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is a note I received by email from Barclays Capital regarding Italian GDP and Industrial Production ...
Read full article... Read full article...Italy: September IP declined 4.8% m/m (BarCap: -4.0%, consensus: -3.0%)
Friday, November 11, 2011
U.S. Exports Narrows Trade Gap, Possibly Upward Revision of 2011:Q3 GDP / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $43.1 billion in September from $44.9 billion in August. The improvement of the trade gap reflects a 1.4% increase in exports of goods and services of the United States and a small gain of 0.3% in the nation’s imports of goods and services. Although the inflation adjusted petroleum trade deficit widened slightly in September ($11.9n billion vs. $11.5 billion in August), the non-petroleum trade deficit narrowed ($35.4 billion vs. $37.2 billion in August).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 11, 2011
U.S. Labor Market Small But Noteworthy Improvement / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
At the town hall meeting in Fort Bliss today, Chairman Bernanke stressed that the Fed is “focused intently” on job creation. He also mentioned that the United States will be affected adversely if there is a blow-up in Europe and added that the Fed stands ready to provide policy accommodation as necessary to minimize the damage.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Rising Wages in China Good for Glocals, But Few Jobs Coming Back / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Although some economists have predicted that steeply rising wages in China would bring some jobs back to the United States, the biggest winners will be the large multinational companies operating in China.
Last week the Guangdong province, where many of China's factories are concentrated, announced a 20% increase to the minimum wage. Combined with two earlier hikes in April and July, the total increase over the past 10 months is a startling 42%.
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Thursday, November 10, 2011
Capitalism and China, Amazing Chaos / Economics / China Economy
By: LewRockwell
Skip Cook writes: It is seven-thirty on a Sunday night. I have just completed the last leg of my trip home from Guilin, China. As I travel across the Arkansas River bridge from the Little Rock airport, headed for the bedroom community of Maumelle, where I live, I notice something conspicuously absent from my drive: Horns; nobody is honking! In China, both in Shanghai and in the smaller city of Guilin, every vehicle has a horn. Every driver is damn proud of their possession and uses it liberally. In fact, I am convinced it is likely the first mechanical device on their vehicle which will wear out.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Likely Economic Export Shocks From Europe / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on November 3, 2011. The possibility of a mild recession was cited as the reason for monetary policy easing. By implication, the recession should translate into fewer exports of the U.S. to Euroland. The share of US exports to the European Union (all 25 member nations) has dropped to 17.7% in August 2011 from a peak of 23.2% in February 2009.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Inflation Warning: Inflating Your Economy Means Playing with Fire / Economics / Inflation
By: Casey_Research
GoldMoney founder James Turk interviews When Money Dies author Adam Fergusson, who discusses the parallels and differences between the Weimar inflation and the situation in the US and Europe today. "I don't see how any of these [Western] economies can grow their way out of the extraordinary debts that they have."
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
The Continuing Zombification of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
We have been exploring the zombification of the US economy. Major industries – finance, health, education and defense – have been taken over by zombies, parasites whose real interest is to transfer wealth to themselves, from the part of the economy that remains productive.
As the economy becomes more zombified, the part of it dominated by these non-productive industries increases, leaving fewer resources for the productive part. And as the productive part weakens, so does the entire economy’s ability to produce real wealth, or grow its way out of debt.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011
America's First Deflationary Depression: Is a Bigger One Ahead? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Don't blame Martin Van Buren for America's first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5' 6".
Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) -- the national mood had turned south and the "Panic of 1837" followed. Van Buren was known as "The Little Magician," but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Stalling German Economy Will Throw Petrol on Eurozone Debt Fire / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Germany's economy is slowing dramatically, an unwelcome turn of events that will put even more strain on existing fractures in the European Union (EU) as it struggles to cope with its ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
Last month a consortium of eight leading economic institutes slashed their forecast for German economic growth in 2012 by more than half, from 2% to 0.8%.
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Sunday, November 06, 2011
Disappointing U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Number / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
The Birth-Death Model was out of normal to the high side enough to raise a comment. This is shown in the first slide. Lately the BLS statisticians had not resorted to this and had actually been running at estimates a little more to what one might expect in a business slump.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Solutions to the Global Economic Crisis: Keynesian Myths, Hopes and Illusions / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
Ismael Hossein-zadeh writes: The Keynesian view that the government can fine tune the economy through “appropriate” fiscal and monetary policies to maintain continuous growth at or near full employment is based on the idea that capitalism can be controlled by the state and managed by professional economists from government departments, that is, capitalism run by “experts” in the interest of all. Economic policy making according to this view is largely a matter of technical expertise or economic know-how, that is, a matter of choice.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Stupid Government Tricks, Let’s Tax the Millionaires, Where Will the Jobs Come From? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I find myself in Liam's taxi on the beautiful drive to Kilkenny through the Irish countryside for a few hours this very early Friday morning, so what better time to begin writing about employment than in a country that is struggling, just as most of the developed world is, to find good jobs for its people. I'm on my way to a conference that will talk about the economics that is driving the world's leading governments to distraction in Cannes. Is Greece going to vote? Take the money? Will it be an orderly default? Should Ireland default? Whatever I write, the situation will change as soon as I hit the send button tonight. (For the record, I think Greece should have a referendum. You don't go into what they are getting ready to suffer without national buy-in. No elitist deals. Put it to the people to decide, one way or the other.)
Saturday, November 05, 2011
U.S. October Employment Situation Means Fed Can Watch From the Sidelines, For Now / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.0% in October, down from 9.1% in September. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +80,000 jobs in October vs. +158,000 in September. Private sector jobs increased 104,000 after a gain of 191,000 in September. Addition of 102,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of August and September
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Saturday, November 05, 2011
Global Economy is at the Mercy of Tiny Greece? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Sy_Harding
It’s incredible when you think about it.
Greece is one of the smallest countries and economies in the world. Its population is 11 million people out of the 492 million in the combined European Union countries, and compared to 312 million in the U.S., 1.3 billion in China, 1.2 billion in India.
Friday, November 04, 2011
U.S. Jobs Market Won't Normalize Until At Least 2023 / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Disgruntled American workers have yet another reason for pessimism: At the current rate of job creation, the U.S. unemployment rate will not fall back to "normal" levels - below 6% - until 2023.
Through most of this year the U.S. economy has managed to create about 119,000 jobs per month, but that's barely enough to keep pace with population growth. Only job creation levels of well over 120,000 jobs per month will drive down the 9.1% unemployment rate.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Is Debt Necessary for Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Since the crisis began, one of the dominant themes in arguments over proper government policy has been the Keynesian view that it is crucial to prop up total spending. The added twist during this particular recession is the crushing burden of private-sector debt, which allegedly makes it all the more urgent for governments to run fiscal deficits.