Friday, September 11, 2015

Bloomberg Interest Rate Hike Odds Still Wrong; Deflationary Bust Coming / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

As of September 10, the CME has the of a September hike by the Fed at 24%. Bloomberg says the probability of a move is 28%.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Stock Market Brace Yourself! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Puru_Saxena

BIG PICTURE - Last month, the multi-month trading range on Wall Street ended with an abrupt break to the downside and once key support levels were violated, we witnessed an epic swoon! Thereafter, due to direct stock buying by the Chinese policymakers, the stock markets stabilised somewhat and we got a sharp relief rally.

As things stand today, we have already had the initial plunge from the multi-month distribution pattern and after the bounce; the S&P500 Index is now trading just beneath an area of overhead resistance (Figure 1). Going forwards, we are of the view that the bellwether index will struggle to get past the two zones of overhead resistance depicted on the chart. Even if it does surpass those levels, the now declining 200-day moving average (red line on chart) should keep the festivities in check.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Gold And Silver - Markets, People Never Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

The events unfolding around the world, or perhaps better expressed, events unraveling at such a rapid and confusing pace can only be a prelude for the disastrous consequences that inevitably will follow. While it may be hard to reconcile, all of this has been orchestrated by the global elites who fully intend to create as much havoc and destruction as possible, the Problem. They then monitor the Reaction, now around the world and not just confined to specific countries and regions, and what everyone is seeing is chaos, but it is an intended chaos that will lead to a Globalist's Solution.

Friday, September 11, 2015

The Stocks Bear Makes a Welcome Return / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Clif_Droke

The S&P 500 Index had its worst August since 2001, while the Dow’s 6.6 percent drop was its biggest since declining 15 percent in August 1998.  Most investors consider the September-October period to be the witching months for equities, but the past month was a painful reminder to many of them just how bad August can sometimes be. 

Friday, September 11, 2015

Stock Market Rebounds from Crash Low Amidst Extreme Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a very volatile, difficult day today. The day started out with a move up. They continued upward in a 5-wave advance until early afternoon when they spiked. At that point, they completed the 5-wave advance near resistance, and then pulled back in a 5-wave decline, only to snapback into the close and finish with a positive day.

It was a tough session to trade stocks today.

Friday, September 11, 2015

The Fourth Turning: Crisis of Trust / Politics / Social Issues

By: James_Quinn

"Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

Friday, September 11, 2015

Stock Market Volatility Drops Ahead of Q4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the September 2, 2015 Market Minute titled "Likely bottom for the S&P 500", the key volatility indexes continue to crest ahead of the bullish Q4 period.

The volatility indexes for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ all appear to have peaked over the last week.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Stock Market Forecasts: Why You Should Consider Technical Analysis / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Technical versus fundamental analysis? The winner is...

Technical versus fundamental analysis: Which approach yields better investment results?

A new study by three finance professors offers an answer.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Decision Theory - The Certainty Equivalent / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

One of my students met me in my office the other day. He is a ROTC cadet; that’s Reserve Officer Training Corps, in case you don’t know.

He knows I have military experience, and he wanted to pick my brain about how he could use his MBA while working for the government.

“Uh, you can’t, really,” I said.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Gold Price Slides Again as Expected / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, short (full) speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view.

Gold, silver and mining stocks declined once again yesterday, but this was not surprising to those who followed our analysis. We moved to the short side many days ago and the profits have just increased. Will they increase even more?

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Jeremy Corbyn Wins Labour Leadership Election 2015, Labour Out of Power for 15 Years! / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Voting for the the next Labour leader closed at 12pm today. The election followed the disastrous reign of Ed Milliband who not only failed to beat the Conservatives at the May general election but took Labour back towards the 1980's level of number of MP' after haemorrhaging virtually every Labour MP in Scotland to the Scottish Independence fanatics.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Buy Gold, Sell the S&P / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Buy low, sell high!  As of today, September 3, 2015, the better choices are buying gold and selling the S&P 500 Index and relevant stocks.

Why?

Examine the graph of the ratio of Gold to S&P 500 Index for the past 25 years.  The ratio is low now and likely will correct higher.  I think gold will move higher and the S&P will move lower.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Stock Market Sentiment Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Gary_Tanashian

In the last 2 NFTRH editions, we noted extremely over bearish market sentiment conditions in Rydex bull/bear fund allocations and in Small Speculators’ net short positions. These sentiment indicators have been reset to traditional correction-ending, even bear market-ending levels.  That’s the reality.

The latter especially, has been a reliable contrary indicator.  Basically, the Small Specs have never been right at important market turns.  For instance, they were heavily net short in the late 1990’s but by the time the market topped in 2000, they had covered and become net long.  They have reliably been a contrary indicator all along the current bull market as well, going net short at each correction bottom, post 2009.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Confusions About Interest Rates Part 2 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Following the 2001 dot-com crisis, interest rates were lowered to 1% and then slowly raised to 5% over a 4-year period. This timid policy still created a massive bubble in housing that finally bust in 2008. Instead of learning from the past, we doubled down on this same failed policy. Interest rates were then lowered to 0% and have been held there with little political will to raise them one iota.

We are now on the eve of another major financial crisis, yet economists (except Austrians) still don’t really understand the role played by interest rates in a capitalist economy. To avoid repeating economic mistakes of the past, we must understand the faulty logic that led us to these errors.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Confusion About Interest Rates Part 1 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Since 2008, central banks have rushed to lower interest rates to spur growth. This has induced mal-investments in almost all asset classes. For example, with oil prices below $50 a barrel and trending lower, the shale oil industry is in serious trouble as is the banking industry that lent it over $1 trillion.

Of course, economists and faulty economic theory are 100% responsible for what is to come. The professional economist today is like the doctor of the past whose prescription to bleed the patient was considered state-of-the-art medicine; the cure, of course, being much worse than the disease. 

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Virgin Money’s Record Beating 37-month 0% balance Transfer Credit Card / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: MoneyFacts

Virgin Money has improved the terms of its Balance Transfer Credit Card MasterCard, increasing the 0% balance transfer term from 36 months to 37, the longest currently available. The card has therefore been awarded the highest Moneyfacts product rating of ‘outstanding’.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Stock Market Something Happened This Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

Prior to 6:00 am, the SPX futures were up to 1960.00, a near-50% retracement of yesterday’s decline. Then something happened. “S&P 500 e-mini futures have been halted twice (0551ET and 0612ET) in what one market observer exclaimed "looks like manipulation to me." So what exactly happened at 6:12am?”

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Refugees and Migrants in a World of Government Meddling / Politics / Immigration

By: MISES

Per Bylund writes: [Updated Author’s Note: The issue of immigration has only become more pressing over the ten years that have passed since this article’s original publication. And, unfortunately, the libertarian movement has not reached a consensus on this issue. But it should be easy, considering how government is at both ends of the problem: government is the number one reason people choose to escape their countries, whether because of governments’ war or devastating poverty due to the lack of opportunities in regulated markets; and government is the reason ordinary people, in a desperate state because their lives have been forcefully uprooted, have a hard time choosing where to lead their lives in peace. The desperation is due to the so-called “failings” of their own governments, and augmented by ours.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

China Allows Gold Bullion as Collateral / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange said it will allow physical gold to be used as collateral on futures contracts from September 29, according to a statement posted on its website this morning as reported by Reuters.

Physical gold will be permitted to be used for up to 80 percent of margin value, according to the statement.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

The EU Uses Every Crisis To Grab More Power / Politics / European Union

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Jean Claude Juncker held a speech yesterday that had, oh irony, been labeled a State of the Union. A perfect way of showing how pompous Juncker and his surroundings have become. A perfect way, too, to point out how much the European Union differs from the United States. The gap is so wide it doesn’t need any explaining.