Thursday, February 21, 2019
Gold Technical Perspective – Why So Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Does technical analysis need to be so convoluted? Here are a couple of definitions from different sources:
1) Convoluted: (especially of an argument, story, or sentence) extremely complex and difficult to follow. (source)
2) Convoluted sentences, explanations, arguments, etc. are unreasonably long and difficult to understand.
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Why Is Central Bank Buying Of Gold So Important? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
There is an old Yiddish expression called a bubbe meise (pronounced my-seh). I guess the closest English interpretation of this expression would be a grandmother’s tale, or in the common vernacular, an old-wives' tale.
Of late, I am seeing a bubbe meise about the importance of central bank buying of gold, and it is making its rounds on websites all over the internet.
We have been hearing for many years about how gold is supposed to soar because countries and central banks are buying the precious metal. Most of the fundamentalists in this market are convinced that this is a bullish signal. In fact, one article I read explained that central bank buying “is significant, as central banks are the 'smart money' given their influence on global economics and access to non-public information.”
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Sheffield "Mi Amigo" Memorial Fly Past at 8.45am on 22nd Feb 2019 / Local / Sheffield
February 22nd is the 75th anniversary of the crash of a US B17 Flying Fortress bomber in Endcliffe Park Sheffield costing the lives of the 10 air crew of the "Mi Amigo". In commemoration of which a fly past arranged by BBC presenter Dan Walker after talking to Tony Foulds who has looked after the memorial site, will take place on Friday 22nd Feb at 8.45am at Endcliffe Park that will include an F15 Strike Eagle fighter jet from RAF Lakenheath, other aircraft to include a KC-135 Stratotanker, a MC-130J Commando II, a CV-22 Osprey from RAF Mildenhall, and a Typhoon and a Dakota from RAF Coningsby (weather permitting).
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Here’s The Real Reason You Stress About Money / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
People get really stressed out about money.
Money makes people cry. Money causes people to lose sleep. Money causes marriages to hit the skids.
So how to not stress about money? Drink decaf? Yoga? Meditation? None of the above.
Having more money is not the solution either. Lots of times, more money causes more stress, not less.
In the sage words of The Notorious B.I.G., “Mo’ money, mo’ problems.” The people who stress about money with $10,000 in the bank would be stressed with $1,000,000 in the bank.
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Five Online Marketing Predictions that will Matter in 2019 / Companies / Marketing
The beginning of the year is a busy time for marketers. Online marketing trends are constantly shifting, after all, which means that not everything that mattered last year may still carry over now. As a marketer, it’s very important to know which trends are worth incorporating into your system and which ones to pass up. To make thing easier for you, we rounded up five online marketing predictions that will matter for 2019—and even beyond:
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Olympus TG-5 Video Audio Sound Quality Tests, TG5 Camera Review / Personal_Finance / Technology
In this video we test the quality of Olympus Tough TG-5's sound / audio recordings, what you get when you hit the record button in various locations under various conditions from nosey to quiet, even underwater! And what it's like when first emerging from a plunge in the sea. So you understand what to expect from this camera's two microphones positioned on the top left side of the camera body.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Has Gold Price Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340-1360? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Our research has indicated that precious metals should be setting up for a period of rotation and sideways trading over the next 20~30 days. We issued a research post on January 28, 2019 warning that precious metals would be consolidated over a 30~45 day period before setting up for a massive upside price move, here. This research was based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system and from our Adaptive Learning Cycles system. We believe this research is still very valid and want to alert metals traders that resistance in GOLD can be easily identified near $1340-1360.
The Weekly gold chart, below, highlights the resistance channel that originates in 2016 and continues with multiple peaks in 2017, 2018 and now. We believe this resistance will act as a price ceiling over the next few weeks before metals prices attempt an upside breakout as we suggested in our January 28 research post.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
So Many Things are Not Confirming Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
A lot of things are not “confirming” the stock market’s rally right now.
Standard traders look for “non-confirmations” in the market. They typically plot a fundamental/technical indicator ontop of the S&P 500, demonstrate how the 2 lines have mostly had a strong correlation over the past 2 years, and then demonstrate how the S&P has “diverged” from the indicator recently and how the indicator is not “confirming” the stock market’s rally.
Then, they come to the conclusion that the stock market is going to reverse because “DIVERGENCE!”
In reality, most divergences don’t amount to anything and are not much better than a 50/50 coin toss. These correlations are optical illusions, and work until they don’t.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Gold and the Great Global Wealth Grab / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Gold continues to soar, up 14% in the last six months and now challenging its 2018 highs.
If you’re looking to understand why Gold continues to rally, you don’t have to look any further than the political arena where more and more politicians are calling for wealth taxes and cash grabs.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
HUI Update…A Treat for Long Suffering Gold Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
Below is the combo chart which has the HUI on top, the UUP in the middle and GLD on the bottom. Everything looks fine.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Forex Trading Management: The Importance of Being Prepared / Currencies / Forex Trading
There is this pearl of wisdom in the trading world. Plan the trade and trade the plan. We have just seen the importance thereof in the EUR/USD pair. It had positive direct implications for us and you, the subscriber. Does the above influence our outlook on the other currency pairs? Is there any corresponding action to take?
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”
We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.
The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.
The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.
Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Wall Street is Chasing Ghosts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
Wall Street’s absolute obsession with the soon to be announced most wonderful trade deal with China is mind-boggling. The cheerleaders that haunt main stream financial media don’t even care what kind of deal gets done. They don’t care if it hurts the already faltering condition of China’s economy or even if it does little to improve the chronically massive US trade deficits—just as long as both sides can spin it as a victory and return to the status quo all will be fine.
But let’s look at some facts that contradict this assumption. The problems with China are structural and have very little if anything to do with a trade war. To prove this let’s first look at the main stock market in China called the Shanghai Composite Index. This index peaked at over 5,100 in the summer of 2015. It began last year at 3,550. But today is trading at just 2,720. From its peak in 2015 to the day the trade war began on July 6th of 2018, the index fell by 47%. Therefore, it is silly to blame China’s issues on trade alone. The real issue with China is debt. In 2007 its debt was $7 trillion, and it has skyrocketed to $40 trillion today. It is the most unbalanced and unproductive pile of debt dung the world has ever seen, and it was built in record time by an edict from the communist state.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Here’s Why The Left’s New Economic Policies Are Just Stupid / Politics / Economic Theory
Somewhere in the last 30–40 years, we have become economically illiterate.Elizabeth Warren wants wealth taxes that would impose asset forfeitures of 2–3% on households with more than $50 million in assets.
There are practical and legal problems with their implementation. But she wants to implement them anyway.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wants a 70% income tax rate on incomes over $10 million. This would be the highest income tax rate in the OECD. And yet, it would affect only 16,000 households and only return marginal rates to historical levels, anyway.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
Sixteen states sue Trump over border wall emergency. Is it good or bad for the yellow metal?
Trump’s National Emergency and Gold
On Friday, President Trump declared a national emergency to obtain funds for building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which was his key promise during a campaign. According to the President’s proclamation :
the current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency. The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
The Coming Restoration of Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.
Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.
The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
UK Retirement Interest-only Mortgages Start to Take Off / Housing-Market / Mortgages
It is almost a year since the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) reclassified retirement interest-only mortgages (RIOs) in March 2018, and despite a slow start, two new providers have joined the sector in the past week, taking the total to 12.
After being regulated under equity release rules and regulations, the measure to make RIOs standard mortgages was introduced in response to demographic and economic changes, and to promote more options for older borrowers who may arrive at the end of their interest-only mortgage term and have nowhere to turn.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Why Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
The one interesting facet of the various research posts our team continues to digest is the continued bearish sentiment that exudes from some analysts. It appears these technical gurus have become married to the concept that global economic issues will crash the US stock market in the near future. We have to give them some credit though. We wanted to take a few minutes of your time to try to highlight how and why we believe these technical gurus are making these points so clearly now and why we believe there are multiple catalysts that they are simply failing to comprehend.
Our team of researchers continues to learn from other skilled researchers, clients, and technicians. Every time we read some news item or someone’s research post, we don’t take the research with a pretense that “these researchers are wrong in their conclusions”. We start off with the pretense that “maybe these people are highlighting something we missed – let’s investigate it”. Thus, our quest is never-ending in the search for greater knowledge and practical application of price theory and technical analysis.
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Monday, February 18, 2019
The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By Robert Ross : “Housing prices in the US never go down.”
Just about everyone in America believed that in the mid-2000s.
A limited amount of buildable land and a growing population would keep housing demand strong.
So, house prices will continue to rise.
That was the thinking, anyway.
Even some of America’s brightest minds—like former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—jumped on the stable housing bandwagon.
Monday, February 18, 2019
Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.
While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention - the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.
As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession - the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.
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