Tuesday, January 22, 2019
What If Stock Market Near-Term Recovery Rally Psychology is Spent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Increasingly, my view of all of the action in ES (e-mini March S&P futures contract) from the 12/25/18 electronic Christmas Day low at 2316.75 into last Friday’s (1/18/19) high at 2677.75 (+15.6%) represents three distinct psychological phases of market influence, which I have color-coded on the attached chart:
1) Red: Natural Acute Oversold Market Recovery Rally,
2) Turquoise: Fed Rate Pause-(Algorithmic Headline) Rally, and
3) Gray: China Stimulus, Positive Trade News (Algorithmic Headline) Rally.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
A Government of Socialists / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Brace for the most bizarre government that Congress has ever seen in your lifetime. The Democrats installed a band of untested novices bent on adopting a socialist utopia. The House of Representatives has become a chamber of horrors that only libtard groupies could embrace and the Senate reflects the bluest of blue from metropolis and the coastal cultures. The gangland underworld families that make up the Deep State and are controlled by the Shadow Government elites have shifted tactics for electing the next generation of Federal legislators.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The Specialist Lending Renaissance / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Submissions
Anyone who’s been in business for more than a decade will undoubtedly remember the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Not to mention, the market crash that followed, which to a large extent dismantled the entire subprime lending market of Great Britain. Despite having previously occupied approximately 10% of the total sector, it was no longer deemed appropriate or advisable to hand out subprime mortgages or loans.The origins of the crisis can be traced to the 2006/2007 softening of the property market in the United States. The quality and value of mortgage-backed securities triggered concerns among investors, who began to question whether they’d made the right decision. Unfortunately, it quickly became clear that far too many banks and businesses had been liberally handing out cash to clients who had no plausible means of paying it back.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The 5 Rules of Real Estate Investment / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: OutreachMama
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Britain's Manchurian Prime Minister Scraps Residency Fees for 5 Million Economic Migrants / Politics / BrExit
By: N_Walayat
Britain's inept Prime Minister, Theresa May has decided to scrap residency settlement fees of £65 due to kick in today for as many as 5 million EU economic migrants, with the costs for processing applications now to be born wholly by British tax payers. This is a further example of the nightmare that a pro European REMAIN supporting Prime Minister and 75% Remain Parliament has put Britain into. A nightmare of a Parliament determined to subvert BrExit, which cannot even sign itself upto Theresa May's "Back Stab" deal that was so feeble that effectively ensured that Britain would be unable to LEAVE the EU without the EU's permission!
Britain is suffering the consequences of not only having a Manchurian Prime Minister but also a majority Manchurian Parliament that is acting in the best interests of the European Union rather than the British people, which is determined to water down Brexit to being only Brexit in name and not in practice, turning Britain into a global Dads army laughing stock!
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Gary_Tanashian
This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical up-turn.
The prime Semi Equipment names we follow are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). Well over a year ago we used their failing leadership to the broad Semi sector as a leading indicator on the economy, and things finally came to a head in October, 2018. We made note of how industry advocates have been lobbying hard for the Trump Administration to re-think its trade tariffs as relates to Semiconductors.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
From ASEAN Economic Development to Militarization / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In Africa, the Trump administration is setting a precedent by replacing economic development with militarization. In Asia, it seeks to couple “rebalancing” in trade with a rearmament drive.In a recent editorial, The Manila Times expressed concern that relatively benign economic conditions may lead to a false sense of security as “the United States-China trade war may be starting to inflict collateral damage on the economy.”
In the short-term, it is a valid concern for the Philippines and other ASEAN economies that currently benefit relatively benign economic conditions.
But even if the worst excesses of the trade war could be deterred, there are darker clouds in the longer-term horizon. The Trump administration’s new trade protectionism is accompanied by increasingly military stance. The new US Africa strategy heralds changes in other regions as well, particularly Asia.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Bitcoin is entering the Dead Zone / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: readtheticker
Bitcoin and the technology boom of 1990's have so much in common, you would think they are twins!
Previous Post: Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver
The chart below shows how similar each story is.
Mr Market knows this, therefore the desire to enter this market is low, and lower prices will plaque Bitcoin for the next 18 months at least. The supply of coins into this market will continue, and prices will continue to fall, there may be bear market rallies along the way, and the good news is the patient (yip that word) long term investors will have the chance to accumulate coins at pre 2017 bubble launch zones (massive support zones).
Monday, January 21, 2019
Gold Stocks Remain in a Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market.
Gold stocks have been in a rally.
That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday.
Take a look at the charts of any gold stock index (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) and it’s clear they are in a downtrend.
Go back two to three years. You’ll see lower highs and lower lows. That’s a downtrend!
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Will China Surprise The Us Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around – even in the midst of all of this uncertainty.
Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Tips to Keep Your Finances Healthy in 2019 and Beyond / Personal_Finance / Money Management
By: OutreachMama
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Tips for Writing Assignment in Hurry / Economics / Education
By: Umer_Mahmood
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Monday, January 21, 2019
UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My latest analysis in a series aimed at arriving at a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices covers population growth which is one of the key primary drivers for UK house prices which since the Labour government of 1997 natural population growth net of births and deaths has been vastly supplemented by what has amounted to out of control immigration courtesy of Britain's membership of the European Union and the former Labour governments objective for the importation of millions of potential Labour voters from mostly new member states from across an impoverished eastern europe that resulted in near 5 million economic migrants settling in the UK by 2016, mostly in what were already over crowded British cities, thus putting severe pressure on services and infrastructure and the whole housing market as the likes of the rental sector soared with 1 million new buy to let landlords entering the market buying 4 million properties, forcing up house prices across the board where rents in large part are being funded by tax payers in the form of the soaring housing benefits bill.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
REMAIN Parliament to Subvert BrExit with Peoples Vote FIXED 2nd EU Referendum / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week Britain's inept Prime Minister Theresa May who has stubbornly refused to do the right thing by resigning thus further lost what little power she had left by means of two House of Common Votes, first on her EU Exit deal on which Parliament delivered a humiliating defeat on Tuesday, losing by 230 votes (432 to 202) the largest defeat of a Government in Parliamentary history which was then followed with Wednesday's vote of confidence in her Government that only just managed to survive with the aid of 10 DUP MP's resulting in 325 to 306.
It should not come as much surprise that Parliament rejected May's deal which was nothing other than complete GARBAGE, one that gives the EU £39 billion for NOTHING in return! And then there is the 'backstop' or more accurately the 'backstab', a means by which to ensure that the UK can NEVER LEAVE the EU without the EU's permission!
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Pay Attention To The Russell Stocks Index and Financial Sectors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
For those that still believe the US markets are weak and poised for a total collapse, we want to bring something to your attention. Throughout weeks of uncertainty about China trade deals, the US government shutdown, continued Brexit issues and who knows what else… oh yeah US Q4 Earnings data, guess what has been taking place in some US sectors? That’s right, a rather solid price recovery.
Two of our favorite sectors to watch for signs of strength and weakness have been rocketing higher over the past few weeks after setting up a very deep price low near Christmas 2018. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Financial Sector ETF (XLF). While the ES, NQ, and others are still waffling around trying to find the momentum to break out to the upside, pay attention to the other sectors that could be leading the way.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Venezuela's Hyperinflation Hits 80,000% Per Year in 2018 / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Venezuela's economy has collapsed. This is the result of years of socialism, incompetence, and corruption, among other things. An important element that mirrors the economy's collapse is Venezuela's currency, the bolivar. It is not trustworthy. Venezuela's exchange rate regime provides no discipline. It only produces instability, poverty, and the world’s highest inflation rate for 2018. Indeed, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate at the end of 2018 was 80,000%.
I observed much of Venezuela’s economic dysfunction first-hand during the 1995-96 period, when I acted as President Rafael Caldera’s adviser. But it wasn’t until 1999, when Hugo Chavez was installed as president, that the socialist seeds of Venezuela’s current meltdown started to be planted. This is not to say that Venezuela had not suffered from an unstable currency and elevated inflation rates before the arrival of President Chavez, but with his ascendancy, fiscal and monetary discipline further deteriorated and inflation ratcheted up. By the time President Nicolas Maduro arrived in early 2013, annual inflation was in triple digits and rising. Venezuela entered what has become a death spiral.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Hyperinflation - Zimbabwe's Monetary Death Spiral / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
President Mnangagwa’s pledge that Zimbabwe is “open for business” rings hollow. Indeed, many businesses in Zimbabwe are shuttered. An increase in government controlled fuel prices over the weekend has ignited simmering fury over what is in fact a currency crisis. In response, Zimbabwe’s security forces have launched a violent crackdown on protestors and opposition politicians. The crackdown has been done under the cover of a social media blackout. Yes, the internet is shuttered, too.
In a sense, the only thing new in this uprising is President Mnangagwa himself. Recall that it was he who organized a coup that removed the long-serving, strongman Robert Mugabe from power in 2017. This was followed by what many claim was a rigged election by the Mugabe-Mnangagwa ruling ZANU-PF party. Rigged or not, the election gave Mnangagwa’s Presidency the patina of legitimacy.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Extends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
The News About Fake News Is Fake / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: Raul_I_Meijer
In the last few days I was looking around for stories that could illustrate what fake news actually is, and I had a nice collection, but then last night Robert Mueller of all people clarified what exactly fake news is better than I could have. At first the BuzzFeed crew that was caught staring straight into the headlights has a feeble response (what exactly was untrue in our article?), but was silenced by the WaPo of all publications: Mueller’s team said every bit of the article was false.
And still I wonder if people now understand better what fake news is. Which I think has a lot to do whit the fact that the term was monopolized by a section of US media as meaning things that had to do with Trump, more or less exclusively. That way, when Trump accused these same media of publishing fake news, they knew their loyal readers wouldn’t believe him.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
Stock Market Bull Trap? January 22 Top Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
It has been a while since I have written a public article. The current set up is just too intriguing not to write about. Therefore, let me cut to the chase. The stock market peak of October 3, 2018 and subsequent drop into Dec 26 is not over, not by any measure that I can see. In fact, a likely C wave down from January 22 (full moon/lunar eclipse in Leo, major 4 X Bradley turn due 1/18, 32 TD top plus nasty astro aspects like Mars in Aries square Saturn combined with Jupiter square Neptune 1/13,) into February 11th is about to take place. I believe the top on Tuesday will start from a high of 2685 (the top of the rising wedge… see chart below) and drop another 16% just like we did from Dec 3 into the 26th. That targets about 2250 on the S&P 500 for the February low (February 11 is the 33 week, 32 TD and 7 week low). A double bottom will likely form into March 6th, the Gann 16 TD low.
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