Friday, September 04, 2015
Meet QT; QE's Evil Twin / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Peter_Schiff
There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. There is some agreement however, that the age of ever easing monetary policy in the U.S. will be ending at the same time that the Chinese economy (that had powered the commodity and emerging market booms) will be finally running out of gas. While I believe this theory gets both scenarios wrong (the Fed will not be tightening and China will not be falling off the economic map), there is a growing concern that the new chapter will introduce a new character into the economic drama. As introduced by researchers at Deutsche Bank, meet "Quantitative Tightening," the pesky, problematic, and much less disciplined kid brother of "Quantitative Easing." Now that QE is ready to move out...QT is prepared to take over.
Friday, September 04, 2015
Bill Gross: Jobs Report Means ‘Fifty-Fifty’ Chance of Fed Sept Interest Rate Move / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio and Television about today's jobs numbers, the markets and Fed policy.
When asked whether the Fed will raise rates on September 17th, Gross said: "I still think it’s 50/50 and China and global conditions are the dominant factor. Otherwise, I would have said, yes, I think Fischer and Yellen and maybe even Dudley their fingers are itching."
Friday, September 04, 2015
Another Stock Market Roller Coaster Ride / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX Premarket is down 30 points as I write. As you can see, the next support level is at or near 1900.00, if it holds.
The much-awaited payroll number is out. ZeroHedge writes, “The "most important and anticipated payrolls number ever", or at least since the last payroll number, is out and it is a doozy at only 173K, it is a huge miss to the 217K expected (and almost in line with LaVorgna's forecast). This was the worst monthly payrolls number since March, and the second lowest number in 19 months. However, the curious twist is that the July and June NFPs were both revised higher to 245K, making the net revision up 44K.”
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Friday, September 04, 2015
Will The Government Confiscate Your Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold Prices: USD1125.00, EUR 1009.87 and GBP 737.95 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD1130.05, EUR 1005.88 and GBP 739.63 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)
Friday, September 04, 2015
Gold-Silver Ratio in Gear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
Now that the US stock market has gotten in sync with the rest of the world in its ups and downs, it also joins the rest of the world in generally (and loosely; it’s not a minute-by-minute relationship) being inverse to the Gold-Silver ratio (GSR, AKA the “metallic credit spread” –Hoye).
Here is the daily view of the GSR, showing a gap up and spike that came with the stock market’s big disturbance and a consolidation down that has come with its relief bounce. This is a bullish chart and so, it is a short-term bearish chart for US and global stocks. GSR broke out and is bullish while above the MA 50’s, MACD and RSI are positive and AROON is trend up.
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Friday, September 04, 2015
The Real Threat from China's Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: ...
In reality, the real risk isn't being reported. In fact, it's not even being talked about.
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Friday, September 04, 2015
The Growth of the Asian Hedge Fund Industry, with Vietnam as a Superior Location / Companies / Hedge Funds
By: Submissions
Dylan Waller writes: The Asian hedge fund industry, which grew by approximately 30% in 2014, is poised for substantial growth. Asian hedge funds were able to hold their ground in 2014, a year that was particularly challenging for the hedge fund industry in general. During Q2 2015, Asia Pacific based hedge funds returned 5.14%, while hedge funds in North America only returned 1.19%, and Europe based hedge funds reported a loss of 0.11%. The historical superior performance of Asia Pacific hedge funds certainly necessitates a shift of hedge funds to this region.
Friday, September 04, 2015
The Stocks Bear Market Everyone Saw Coming / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Gary_Tanashian
The title lets you know where this article is going. For such a routine correction in the US stock market, the Psych/Sentiment backdrop has gotten way out of whack. Do some analysis on Rydex Bull/Bear fund allocations among investors and you will find a historic knee jerk reaction into bear funds over bull funds (by those who still use Rydex funds).
Friday, September 04, 2015
Why September’s Stock Market Volatility Is a Huge Opportunity for Options Traders / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: ...
It’s no secret that I think this volatility will continue, at least in the short-term, and the best way to weather the storm is to make sure you’ve got options in your portfolio.
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Friday, September 04, 2015
What IF Gold is Just in a Great Big Bull Consolidation Pattern ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Rambus_Chartology
The gold charts which are showing gold is at a critical level right here. Below is the daily chart for gold that shows its comb triangle / H&S consolidation pattern. I have shown you on the precious metals indexes the same combo consolidation pattern. The only real difference is the PM stock indexes reached their respective price objectives while gold has yet to reach its. So there is a big divergence between the Pm stocks and the metal. This counter trend rally that started at the August low finally ran into some serious resistance as shown by the red circle.
Thursday, September 03, 2015
Stock Market Chokin’ on the Splinters / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Mauldin
It’s been a tough couple of weeks.
I keep a mostly hedged book, long and short, so it’s rare that I get my head caved in on every position at the same time. But that’s pretty much what has happened. My shorts haven’t worked because they’re either rate-sensitive or Canadian banks. Meanwhile the longs, which include a lot of emerging markets—well, you know what has happened with those.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
ECB Preempts Fed Inaction, PBOC Action / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The ECB succeeded in weakening the euro and bund yields with an aggressive downgrade of 2015-2017 forecasts for GDP and CPI, while announcing an increase in the issue share limit of bonds included in QE purchases to 33% from 25%. The increased limit means the ECB can buy a higher share of an individual nation's bond issue, giving it more freedom of concentration in particular issues.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
This Stock Market VIX Chart Should Blow Your Mind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
Price volatility in stocks and other instruments has been stunning the past few weeks. The VIX chart from the August 28 Elliott Wave Short Term Update puts the massive moves in perspective:
Thursday, September 03, 2015
Eurodystopia: A Future Divided / Politics / European Union
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is a rerun of an article I wrote on August 10, 2012. It seems to have regained quite a bit of relevance in recent days. I was thinking earlier today, how can I write about finance when Europe continues to offend people’s, and humanity’s, most basic dignity the way it does, but it does. It gets more incomprehensible by the hour, what happens there. But it does.
So here’s a different view, 50+ years old, of what Europe could, and perhaps should, have been, instead of the sad and amoral place it has become. Just for perspective.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
The Student Loan Crisis Is Mounting / Interest-Rates / Student Finances
By: Peter_Schiff
Addison Quale writes: "You need a college degree to succeed in America." This idea has become so commonplace that the right to higher education is now a core issue in most political platforms. What if a young person cannot afford a college degree? The "obvious" answer from politicians on both sides of the aisle is that the government should subsidize them. Very few are brave enough to ask the far more important question: "At what cost?"
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
Stock Market Prepares for the Next Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
After reviewing the charts, I have come to the conclusion that we may be seeing a Leading Diagonal Wave (1) in the SPX and other major indexes. Note that both Waves 1 and 3 fit the [a]-[b]-[c] pattern better than an impulse because of overlap in Wave 1 and the Triangle [b] in Wave 3. We have already seen Waves [a] and [b] in Wave 5 with a large Wave [c] decline to go.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
The Next Financial Crisis May Already be Unfolding / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: MoneyMetals
Stefan Gleason writes: Is an epic financial meltdown about to commence? Predictions that a crash will occur in the fall of 2015 have been gaining traction. They are bolstered by some of the market events of this summer, which suggest that something big is indeed unfolding.
In August, the Chinese devalued the yuan, setting off volatility in currency, commodity, and equity markets worldwide. The U.S. stock market suffered its worst slide in four years, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling through major support levels. Crude oil prices careened below $40 per barrel.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
Marc Faber Warns “No Safe Assets Anymore” So “Focus On Precious Metals” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold Prices: USD1130.05, EUR 1005.88 and GBP 739.63 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1140.00, EUR 1010.73 and GBP 746.46 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)
Thursday, September 03, 2015
Europe Rethinks the Schengen Agreement / Politics / European Union
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- Rising immigration and fragile economic recovery in Europe will reduce political support for the Schengen Agreement, which eliminates border controls among member states.
- The Schengen Agreement will likely be reformed to make room for countries to tighten their border controls more frequently.
- Friction between Schengen members and other countries will remain, as will tension within the bloc itself.
Thursday, September 03, 2015
BP Oil Company Moves past Mistakes But Still Feeling Price Pinch / Companies / Oil Companies
By: AnyOption
Major oil Company BP (LSE: BP) has found itself in an uncertain position the past few years. Under pressure from both outside and within, the company has managed to stay relatively stable considering the shakeup in the industry. Now, despite the current economic downturn facing the oil industry and a disappointing second quarter, the oil giant is finally able to look more towards improving future prospects. A recent settlement in their ongoing case with the United States Federal Government and state governments as well as a relatively solid balance sheet paired with their diversified corporate structure have combined to create a potentially positive long-term outlook for investors seeking long-term potential. However, the short-term outlook must acknowledge the inherent industry risks. Read full article... Read full article...