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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Friday, April 26, 2019

The US Economy Is Reaching a Dead End / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

Sooner or later, the US will enter a recessionMy best guess is it will happen sometime in 2020. I may be off (early) by a year or two, but it’s coming.

We know two things will happen.
  • Tax revenues will fall as people’s income drops.
  • Federal spending will rise as safety-net entitlement claims go up.

The result will be higher deficits.

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Commodities

Friday, April 26, 2019

Will Fed’s New Balance Sheet Policy be a Reason to Buy Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As always, most analysts focus not on what they really should. After March FOMC meeting, everyone was talking about the more dovish dot-plot. But the Fed also announced that it will end the unwinding of its balance sheet in September. As these changes are revolutionary and may entail potentially huge consequences for the precious markets, we invite you to read our today’s article about the new Fed’s balance sheet policy and find out whether it will be positive for the gold prices.

Most analysts focus on the recent revision of the Fed’s dot-plot. This is of course very important – so we have analyzed them in the previous part of the April edition of the Market Overview – but we should not forget about very substantial changes in the US central bank’s balance sheet policy. We have described these modifications in the March 21 edition of the Gold News Monitor, but let’s now dig into the new Fed’s normalization plan.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 26, 2019

Are Stock Market’s Internals Sending Bearish Warnings? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

With the stock market at all-time highs, many market pundits have noted that relatively few stocks are making new highs. In their minds, this supports the bearish narrative that “relatively few stocks are holding this stock market rally together, and sooner or later the house of cards will come tumbling down”.

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 26, 2019

Financial Stocks Setting Up An Island Top Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears.  Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs.  We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.

Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future.  We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.

An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap.  In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue.  Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends.  Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.

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Commodities

Friday, April 26, 2019

Precious Metals Are All At Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

I am not sure how much more I can add to what has been said over the last two weeks in the metals complex.

At this point in time, it is quite clear that the metals are testing support. As specifically noted about silver, the 14.60 support region is what I want to see holding as support here. While I can accept a spike and reversal of that level, a sustained break of that level opens the door to a 13 handle for a lower low bottoming in that chart.

As far as GLD is, the 119 region is the similar support region I want to see hold for a wave iv. And, in GDX, you can see we are now approaching the bottom of our support box as well.

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Housing-Market

Friday, April 26, 2019

8 Tips for Choosing Your First Investment Property / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: Steve_Barker

If you’re looking for your first investment property, you’ve no doubt familiarized yourself with trends in mortgage and interest rates and have decided that now is the time. The process may seem daunting, at first, but you’ll find it’s more manageable than you might think.

In choosing your investment property, you’re choosing to invest in your dreams. With this in mind, here are a few tips to help you out.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 26, 2019

SPX Goldilocks Now, But She’ll Be Vanquished / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us – in hindsight – that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50 day moving average, which was the original target.

After that I was compelled by the market’s technicals to be bullish for a drive to the SMA 200, and then 2815 resistance, and then… a top-test. I not only felt not righteous with these compulsions, I felt a little soiled. Hey, it’s just a human (as opposed to a newsletter writer/market commentator) talking about human feelings.

There is a difference between being contrary and willingly bullish and being compelled to be bullish. I don’t like the feeling of that second thing very much. Anyway, there is a gap and do you know what? Last summer’s rally filled a similar gap (not shown here) from late January 2018, proceeded upward into a nice bull trap, and then October happened. FYI. The bears were disoriented and thus pissed all last summer. But any self respecting bull trap would by definition piss the bears off because it’s the same psychology that traps the bulls, only in reverse.

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Currencies

Friday, April 26, 2019

The Euro Is Down. But Is It Really Out? / Currencies / Euro

By: Nadia_Simmons

We’ve seen quite decent currency moves in recent days. And the market ain’t exactly sleepy today, either. Let’s put these moves into the picture. The implications lead us to make serious decisions. Is there a more pleasant sound than ringing a cashier’s bell? Ringing YOUR cashier’s bell, that is. Just see what we’ve exactly decided to do right now.

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Companies

Friday, April 26, 2019

These 3 Computing Technologies Will Beat Moore’s Law / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

There’s a big lie about disruption going around. And folks aren’t spreading it intentionally.

Many smart investors I talk to genuinely believe it to be the truth.

If you accept this widespread lie, you’ll likely make poor decisions when investing in disruptive companies.

Here, I’ll explain the real truth and why it matters to disruption investors.

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, April 25, 2019

All Billionaires I Know Have These Two Things in Common / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Jared_Dillian

Let’s talk about billionaires.

In my lifetime, I have known a few billionaires. I can count them on one hand. They all have two things in common:

  • They are really good at doing a thing.
  • They are relentless in the pursuit of that thing.

There’s no trick.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Will Stephen Moore Make Gold Great Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last month, Trump said that he considered Herman Cain and Stephen Moore as his picks to the Federal Reserve Board. As the former had withdrawn his name from consideration, the focus shifted to the latter. Who is Mr. Moore exactly and what would his nomination imply for the gold market?

Who Are You, Mr. Moore?

There are still two vacancies at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. It’s possible that Stephen Moore will fill one gap, which has provoked great controversy. President Trump has not officially nominated him yet, but the White House supports Moore for a seat on the Board, as Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, has recently reaffirmed.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Stock Market Due for 9-10% Pull Back? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The December 24-26 low in the stock market finished an E-Wave xyz bullish flag, which itself was likely an X wave of larger degree.  The move up to all time highs within only 4 months of a 20% pull back has been quite impressive. The xyz pattern is a very bullish e-wave pattern and the current Wave Y runs an abc type rally with “a” due in this general time frame. 

The 20-week low (“b”) is due around May 17-20 and it wouldn’t surprise me that an intermediate top forms shortly (within the next 1-4 trading sessions) and drops 9-10% into the mid May expected low. The 9 month top (“c” of Y) is due in early July and a move to above S&P 500 3100 would not surprise me at all, but like I said, a 9-10% pull back is likely first.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Dow Transportation Stocks Sector Is Testing Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs.  Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations.  When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.

The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018.  A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months.  With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, April 25, 2019

INSOMNIA i64 UK Best Games Festival Vlog of What it's Like to Attend - 2019 / Personal_Finance / Gaming

By: Sami_Walayat

Here's what it was like to attend Britain's biggest and best games festival, INSOMNIA 64 at the Birmingham National Exhibition Centre. There were loads of games to play across a range of ages, from kiddies and families games such as the Super Mario series, Splashtoon, to the 16 and over 18 games such as 5 Nights Freddy in VR and Mortal Combat, Bioshock etc. There were several stages and big screens to watch tournament action on as well as many displays such as a double decker Gaming Bus. So here's what its like to attend an Insomnia Gaming Festival for your future reference.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Silver Sentiment: Is It (Your) Friend or Foe? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006.

The next two years saw the last part of a 400% up-move for those who "kept the faith," before silver dropped below $9 during the 2008 global financial meltdown.

Then it was up, up and away, as silver rocketed to nearly $50 by April 2011. By then, "everyone knew" it was going to $100.

A blogger announced he had sold his house to buy silver and advised others to do the same.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Next Potential Targets for Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) / Stock-Markets / Saudi Arabia

By: MarketsToday

Several weeks ago, the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) went right through the 61.2% Fibonacci retracement (potential resistance) of the long-term downtrend that started off the September 2014 peak of 11,159.50 and kept going. Year-to-date the index is up 17.5%.

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, April 25, 2019

In Just 45 Mins., Learn to Spot New Opportunities in ANY Market for FREE! / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

This free event is hosted by our friends at Elliott Wave International. The webcast features two of the world's leading technical analysts:

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Economics

Thursday, April 25, 2019

If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

I recently made a case that the Fed’s monetary policy is turning Japanese. Let’s examine how that worked for them.

From one perspective, it has done quite well. From another, they have paid a cost.

Is it worth it? I think many Japanese, likely a big majority, would say yes.

An Economic Miracle?

The Bank of Japan has more than 140% of Japanese GDP on its balance sheet.

Its laws let it buy equities not just in Japan but all over the world and it did. Yet the currency is roughly the same value as it was when the Bank of Japan got busy with that project.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, April 25, 2019

8 Reasons Why Investment in Education Always Pays Off / Personal_Finance / Student Finances

By: Submissions

University brings about so much imagination within us. Secondary school is over and we think of furthering our education and obtaining the great successes that await us. It seems anything can be possible as we transition into adulting. Picture having the help of an Oxbridge diploma with the highest accolades. Companies scrambling to offer the best career opportunities and suddenly the corporate ladder seems to be much shorter. But then we consider all the baggage that comes with uni. The need to find time for assignments, devoting 4+ years of life to courses, and the cost of a quality education in the UK is quite substantial. With skyrocketing tuition, many wonder if the financial investment for a degree makes sense. For those of you on the fence about higher education, let’s take a look at 8 reasons why an investment in education will always pay off.
“He who opens a school door, closes a prison.“ – Victor Hugo

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Companies

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Want To Earn A Safe 5% In Fixed Income? Buy Preferred Stocks / Companies / Dividends

By: Robert_Foss

Chances are you’re overlooking an entire class of safe, high-yield stocks…

These stocks have dividend yields averaging 5.7%. Yet very few retail investors own them.

That’s a shame. It means you’re probably leaving a lot of (predictable) money on the table—a thought income investors should cringe at.

If you haven’t figured it out already, I’m talking about preferred stocks, the bond-like cousin of ordinary “common stocks.”

As I’ll explain, today’s interest rate environment makes now a great time to buy preferred stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


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