Wednesday, June 09, 2021
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
With the current situation suggestive of a Monty Hall problem, investors are clinging to the first, bullish door. But what if a different option is more likely?
The Monty Hall problem is a form of a probability puzzle, and what it shows is immensely unintuitive. Suppose you are on a game show, and you need to choose one of three doors. Behind one of them is a car and behind the others, goats. You pick a door, and then the host (who knows what’s behind them) opens one of the remaining doors, behind which there is a goat. The host now asks: “Do you want to change your door choice for the remaining doors?” So, what do you do?
It turns out that if you change the door, the probability of winning the car increases… two times! You have a 2/3 chance, instead of a 1/3. Tremendously unintuitive, indeed, but what if the same is happening on the market now? With a bullish prospect representing the door of the first choice, and the technicals and fundamentals the host’s help, wouldn’t it be safer to switch the door to win eventually?
Wednesday, June 09, 2021
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
‘Taper’ talk from the Federal Reserve is back in focus. But for now, it’s all talk and no action.
Last week, former New York Fed President William Dudley said the central bank will begin the process of tapering – winding down its monthly asset purchases – by year end.
While echoing current Fed policymakers’ position that the recent spike in prices is “transitory,” Dudley acknowledged the likelihood of inflation persisting above 2% longer term.
Wednesday, June 09, 2021
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline / Companies / Energy Resources
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Wednesday, June 09, 2021
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
The Internet is full of stories of people who have become successful Forex brokers without even financial experience and education. Undoubtedly, it is tempting for every person to try themselves in Forex trading to understand if it is the niche where they can make money. If you are one of them, one of the first steps is the selection of a Forex broker and a platform. When it comes to the choice of a broker, there are some crucial aspects to take into consideration.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2021
Fed’s Tools are Broken / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
The U.S. central bank has metastasized from an institution that was originally designed to assist distressed banks, to one that believes its purview now includes perpetuating asset bubbles, fighting global warming and reconciling racial inequities. Another distortion of the original purpose of the Fed is that its mandate has changed from providing stable prices and full employment, to creating an inflation rate above 2% for a period of time equivalent to the duration it was below that level.But the members of the FOMC claim there is nothing to fear if inflation were to ever grow too hot because it has the tools to bring it under control. In other words, when necessary, the FOMC can not only stop QE but it can raise rates aggressively enough to vanquish inflation without destroying the markets and economy along the way. Let’s see just how true this contention really is.
But before we get to how “successful” the fed will be to tame inflation, a funny thing happened on the way to achieve its 2% goal. Our central bank focuses on the incredibly distorted core rate of inflation found in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. But meanwhile, prices are surging in the real world. For instance, headline PCE inflation increased by 3.65% year over year in April. And even in the fed's preferred metric, prices jumped by 3.1% y/y. Not only this, but a slightly less massaged reading of inflation, which can be found in the headline CPI metric, had prices rising by 4.2% y/y.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2021
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, June 08, 2021
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? / Companies / Energy Resources
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Monday, June 07, 2021
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
Inflation broke into the economy violently. It’s a destructive, dark force. But gold can resist it, being after all a much stronger asset than Anakin Skywalker.Last month, I wrote that “inflation is knock, knock, knockin’ on golden door”. I was wrong. Inflation didn’t knock, it broke down the door! Indeed, as the chart below shows, the core CPI surged 3%, while the overall CPI annual rate soared 4.2% in April – this is twice the Fed’s target!
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Monday, June 07, 2021
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
"Home price declines follow home sales declines"
In many parts of the country, the price of homes has been skyrocketing.
Indeed, the index of home prices across 20 large cities increased at a yearly pace of 13.3% in March, according to a well-known home price index.
That statistic appears to represent a sign of health for the housing market. So, you may ask: "Why is trouble brewing?"
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Monday, June 07, 2021
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Volatility is the most common way to measure risk in the financial markets. While there are a plethora of methods, calculations, and derivatives to calculate volatility, they are all trying to accomplish the same goal: what is the price of a security going to do in the future? Without a crystal ball, there’s no perfect answer, but let’s go through a few common ways that we can estimate future volatility.
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Monday, June 07, 2021
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s / Companies / Tech Stocks
Did you hear that NASA put a self-driving car on Mars? Its Perseverance rover has been cruising around the red planet since February, and unlike previous space robots, this one features a big technological breakthrough: It drives itself!
Prior versions of the rover had to constantly stop and take static photographs to figure out where to go. It’s no wonder the furthest any rover had traveled in one day is 700 feet. But Perseverance can “see” where it’s going in real-time. Now it spends its days poking around a dried-up river bed looking for signs of alien life.
A world-changing disruption made this breakthrough possible. I’m talking about computer vision. Computer vision is the kind of disruption that only comes around once a generation.
Monday, June 07, 2021
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time / Local / Sheffield
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane. This electronics store situated across the road from Sheffield Town Hall that started off as an airfix model kits store is now long gone, so here's a step down memory lane in it's last few days before it closed its doors for ever, and the shop.
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Monday, June 07, 2021
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? / Personal_Finance / Home Maintenance
Wire Brushes to get rid of driveway block paving weeds, is it worth the effort, find out in our latest video which is in response to the videos we posted where we used a Karcher K7 pressure washer to blast away driveway weeds where many said to get a wire brush and other manual tools to get rid of weeds instead of using a pressure washer, we'll we had already been there done that hence this video. So now you get to compare the two methods of getting rid of driveway weeds and can make up your own minds of which to go for!
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Monday, June 07, 2021
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
S&P 500 wasted another good opportunity to rise – one where the credit markets were largely aligned. Is it a sign of upcoming tremors that the 500-strong index couldn‘t defend the daily gains? Commodities weren‘t under pressure, the dollar wasn‘t surging (looking at the closing prices), precious metals did well, and even lumber enjoyed a white candle again.
Inflation expectations retreated, and so did Treasury yields – what‘s holding stocks then? Neither uncertainty about the Fed policy, nor surging inflation cutting into P&L, nor crashing bonds – what we‘re seeing is run of the mill volatility as stocks move both into a structurally higher inflation environment, and await Fed moves which are much farther down the time line than the markets appreciate. Heck, even the option traders keep undergoing the earlier announced shift to complacency.
Yes, the taper talk has dialed back the inflation trades to a degree, but hasn‘t knocked them off in the least. In a reflation, both stocks and commodities do well, and we‘re still far away from worrying about weakening GDP growth rates (today‘s ADP and unemployment data are a good proof thereof) – in my view, worries about inflation not retreating nearly enough during this Treasury market lull (taking up this summer) would come into the picture first.
Reopening trades aren‘t over, the housing market activity (housing starts, new home sales) has slowed down a little while XLRE keeps running, financials remain as strong as value (yes, there is more juice in that trade still), and no mad rush into tech (growth) is underway. Capacity utilization isn‘t at the top of the pre-corona range exactly, and oil prices (these serve as additional tax, a drag on the economy) aren‘t biting nearly enough. The job market isn‘t at the strongest either, and the hours worked don‘t match prior extremes either. Last but not least, global supply chains haven‘t entirely recovered to meet the reopenings-boosted demand.
Monday, June 07, 2021
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? / Commodities / Energy Resources
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Sunday, June 06, 2021
Why Tether USDT, Stable Scam Coins Could COLLAPSE the Crypto Markets - Black Swan 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
To get my crypto bear market investing ball rolling I recently opened an account with Binance (10% trading fees discount). Deposited £3600 sterling that I quickly converted into USDT so as to initiate my initial limit orders on mainly BTC and ETH, aiming to add more funds and limit orders over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, on taking a closer look at USDT Tether stable coin which probably holds true for all so called stable coins is that they are NOT backed 1 for 1 by that which they seek to represent i.e. from what I have gleaned at best USDT is backed by 75% of dollar 'safeish' assets with most of the remaining 25% may not even exist i.e. PRINTED MONEY! Likely to cover losses incurred to date such as the $800 million USDT's parent company lost some years ago etc,. So USDT's true value is somewhere between 15% and 25% LESS than that of the US Dollar given it's actual reserves, more in my recent video on this subject.
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Sunday, June 06, 2021
Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
Investment involves taking a risk. It involves putting your money on something with the hope that it will increase in value. Therefore, it will be difficult for you to participate in the investment if you are not a risk-taker. Anything can happen at any time, and you might end up incurring losses or profits. For someone who only had hopes of making a profit, the losses may discourage him/her.
Investing in gold can be the best decision to make if you want to diversify your investment. Gold is always considered the safest asset because it does not depreciate. It means that its prices keep increasing with time. Therefore, you are sure of making a profit when you invest in it. Below are some of the tips for investing in gold.
Saturday, June 05, 2021
Apple (AAPL) Summer Correction Stock Trend Analysis / Companies / Apple
I have been bearish on the prospects for Apple to go higher since last November and so far Apple has lived upto my expectations, and it's the first big stock on my list to be down on the year. Apple is trading on an an EC of 81 that is even higher than the 76 of last November. So despite the stock having gone nowhere for the pasty 8 months, I can't see what's going to propel it higher in the near future. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
It is now approaching almost a decade since I began writing public articles outlining my analysis in various markets. And, I have learned a lot about the general investor community based upon many of the comments I have received during that time.
One of the things that I find quite pervasive is the drive for "common-think." But, even that is a misleading classification. You see, I do not believe investors think anymore.
Rather, I see investors often grab onto something they read or hear in the media, and take personal "ownership" over that idea because it resonates with them for whatever reason. It then becomes the basis for their entire view of the market, and they seek articles which provide confirmation to their bias, and argue with articles that do not. So, rather than seeking out the truth in the market and continually testing their perspective in an objective fashion, most investors simply adopt a personal opinion and ignore or attack anything that disagrees with that opinion. Therefore, truth and profit in investing no longer seem to be the ultimate goal.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
The Russell 2000, which had experienced an incredible 48% upside price rally after the November 2020 US elections, has recently peaked near an upward sloping price channel that originated shortly after the 2010 Housing Crisis bottom. The incredible aspect is that the post-COVID price rally accelerated at such an extreme rate that the current peak level (highlighted by the MAGENTA circle on the chart below) represents an extreme rally phase in price. Unquestionably, at this point, the markets are searching for a new trend and the IWM has consolidated into a sideways Flagging price formation.
I believe global traders are currently searching for new opportunities and have taken the past 45+ days to re-evaluate the extent of the post-COVID rally in the markets. Ironically, the IWM and SPY show similar types of extreme rallies to a previous (2009~2010) price channel high. It is the opinion of my team and I that the markets have entered an over-enthusiastic rally phase to reach these levels and are currently stalling while searching for a new trend.
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