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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Opinion pollsters have done it again, have got another major election very, very badly wrong. What's worse is that before the start of the campaign were projecting a 20%+ lead that forecast a landside Tory election victory of well over 400 seats, that had convinced a technocratic Theresa May to call a snap general election, that is likely to cost her job as Prime Minister.

I am sure Theresa May is pondering when she should resign, likely immediately given the dismal results as per the BBC's revised forecast of their Exit poll adding 8 seats to their earlier Tory tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats estimate from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives, hence triggering Theresa May's resignation.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

Scotland Saves Tory Government, BBC Revises Exit Poll Forecast to 322, Labour 261, SNP 32 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The BBC have revised their earlier hung parliament exit poll forecast in favour of the Conservatives by adding 8 seats to their earlier tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats total from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives. Though at the rate the BBC are revising the Tory seats total higher then they may still achieve an overall majority which means, even at 322 it most definitely is not over for the Conservative government who could continue in government despite damage done to their political capital.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

UK Financial Markets Calm in Election Storm, is the BBC Exit Poll Wrong? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implied a shock hung parliament election result that was expected to trigger market panic as happened following the EU Referendum.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Nick Clegg Forecast to Win Sheffield Hallam - 75% Probability / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Whilst the BBC's shock hung parliament exit poll currently forecasts that Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat is too close to call meaning that Labour could take it. This is backed up by BBC reporting of worried voices out of Lib Dems at the count. However according to the betting markets as illustrated by Betfair have following the close of polls marginally shifted in Nick Clegg's favour currently pricing Nick Clegg on 1.14 against Labour on 1.44 which converts into an implied probability of about 70% to 75% for Nick Clegg winning Sheffield Hallam (when taking into account Labour trading at 1.44).

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

BBC Exit Poll Forecasts Shock Hung Parliament - Conservative 314, Labour 266, SNP 34 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implies a shock hung parliament election result! - MARKETS PANIC!

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

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Companies

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Hidden Costs You Need To Be Careful With When Taking Out A Business Loan / Companies / SME

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

There are various situations in which a business loan is necessary. This is a very important decision, no matter why the money is needed. The problem with various business loans is that the borrower does not fully read the contract. Automatic signing is much more common than it should be. There are so many possible hidden costs that could appear and that have to be identified. It is easy to learn how to apply for a debt consolidation loan online or any other loan but it is more difficult to avoid those hidden costs. In order to help, here are those that appear more often than others.
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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

FTSE Stocks, Bonds and Sterling Calm Ahead of UK Election Result Storm? / ElectionOracle / Financial Markets 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK stocks, bonds and sterling were calm ahead of the result of the UK general election, where effectively the financial markets are discounting a Conservative election victory on an INCREASED majority in Theresa May's BrExit election, where the higher the number of seats gained by the Tories then the more positive the market response is likely to be. However should the markets also get it wrong this time as they had for the EU Referendum then all hell could once more break lose. But for the time being the markets are calm.

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Economics

Thursday, June 08, 2017

This Is The Most Profound Shift The US Economy Has Ever Seen / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

By Stephen McBride : This year, the first Baby Boomers turned 70, and that spells trouble for the economy and financial markets.

Speaking at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, dissected the wide-ranging implications of the wave of Baby Boomers now retiring.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, June 08, 2017

People Will Live Past Age 100, Yet Most Of Them Won’t Afford It / Personal_Finance / Longevity

By: John_Mauldin

I have good news and bad news.

The good news is that you and your children will probably have much longer lives than you imagine. The bad news is that you’ll have to pay the bill for it.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Stocks Trade At Record Highs, Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

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Companies

Thursday, June 08, 2017

This is the Energy Company the Market Wants to Buy Now / Companies / Energy Resources

By: WallStreetNation

....

 


Currencies

Thursday, June 08, 2017

GBPUSD Remains in Uptrend from 1.2109 / Currencies / British Pound

By: Franco_Shao

GBPUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.2756 and 1.3047. As long as the pair is above 1.2756 support, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from the March 14 low of 1.2109, and further rise could be expected after the consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.3047, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 08, 2017

The Subprime 2.0 Debt Bubble is About to Burst / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: Graham_Summers

As we’ve been outlining for weeks now, Subprime 2.0 is the subprime auto-loan industry. And just as the collapse in the subprime mortgage lending was what signaled the beginning of the housing crisis… trouble in the subprime auto-loan industry will be what signals that the next Debt Crisis is here.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Constructive Stock Market Consolidation or Potential Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market had a volatile session, gapping up at the opening, coming down sharply in a 5-wave decline, and reaching the lows by midday. After taking out support they rallied sharply, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 5846 all the way up to 5883. The S&P 500 bounced from 2424 to 2435. A last 10-minute pullback pared back the profits, but they did finish in the positive column, but not with the best technicals.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 37.46 at 21,173.69. The S&P 500 was up 3.81 at 2433.14. The Nasdaq 100 was up 20.82 at 5877.59.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Geopolitical Risks in Retreat. Will Gold Drown? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the previous edition of the Market Overview we wrote that “geopolitical risks clearly won with a hawkish Fed in a tug of war in the gold market” at the turn of March and April, as the yellow metal gained about 7 percent from mid-March to mid-April. However, the price of gold declined about 4.8 percent until May 9 when it started its rebound. As the chart below shows, at the beginning of July, the price of gold came close to the level of mid-April.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: N_Walayat

The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Spread Betting Market Arbitrage and BetFair Trading UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Theresa May's snap general election campaign is nearly over and where my forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win with 358 seats on a majority of 66. With Labour losing 20 seats falling to 212. So following my my forecast conclusion my search has been on to identify spread and Betfair exchange betting market opportunities for these last few days and then hours ahead of the election result as I cover in this video analysis.

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