Friday, November 30, 2018
Gold Fundamentals Improving but Not Bullish Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Recent market and economic developments are positive for Gold and precious metals but conditions are not bullish yet.
Bullish conditions and bullish fundamentals would be highlighted by a shift in Fed policy. They aren’t shifting yet. They are slowing, which precedes a shift.
From a market standpoint, we need to see strength in Gold in real terms (against stocks and foreign currencies) and a steepening of the yield curve. These developments along with shifting Fed policy will tell us a new bull market is soon to begin.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
A Black Swan is when something dramatic happens that most people did not expect, like when house prices went down, not up...remember that?
Last week on Bloomberg News, Javier Blas wrote of a new “Shale Boom” that could...create “OPEC’s Worst Nightmare”. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/opec-s-worst-nightmare-the-permian-is-about-to-pump-a-lot-more
That sentiment reflects a broad consensus of opinion that has driven oil prices down 30% in two months. The central theme of the article was that the spike in year-on-year change of U.S. production of “oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids”, to 3.0 million barrels per day (MBPD) in August 2018, was proof of shale-oil’s continuing resurgence.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting Imnplications for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market. Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global economies and rushed into the US stock market because of a tremendous value opportunity that existed at that time. Technology, Biotech and many others equity sectors were skyrocketing – in some cases 2~3% a month. This ROI, along with the benefit of a stronger US Dollar, created a very unique environment where foreign capital could rush into the US markets, land pretty much anywhere and become relatively safe from foreign risks/devaluation.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
The US Economy is Getting Worse. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. economy is starting to deteriorate, which is what typically happens in the last year of a bull market.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
Trailblazers Leading the Way in Online Reputation Management / Companies / Internet
By: Submissions
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Friday, November 30, 2018
The Shift in Trend from Physical Printers to Online Printers / Companies / 3d Printing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Print plays an integral role in the business world; working alongside other types of marketing to build a successful promotional campaign. The past two decades have seen a massive trend shift from conventional physical printing to online printing as businesses strive to expand their reach while minimizing costs.Today, people are keen on getting a high-quality print at the best prices. A quick look at a print website like www.helloprint.co.uk will show how top companies are striving to exceed their client’s expectations by availing affordable solutions without compromising on quality.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within hours of the UK Government publishing it's dire economic forecast of a NO DEAL BrExit resulting in a loss of 9% of GDP, albeit as a deviation from trend over 15 years. Britain's central bank, the Bank of England set forth it's own NO DEAL economic armageddon forecasts, warning of an immediate economic collapse on a scale twice that of the 2008 Financial Crisis. A 25% collapse in sterling, a collapse in GDP of 8%, inflation soaring to over 6.5% and a 30% CRASH in UK house prices. Though it should be noted that none of similar fear mongering pre EU referendum materialised as the UK economy continued to grow on a similar trend trajectory to what it was on as before the EU Referendum BrExit result.
Friday, November 30, 2018
B&M Stores Icicle Christmas Colour Changing LED Lights 3 Year Use Review / Personal_Finance / Reviews
By: Anika_Walayat
Most households will be busy shopping for Christmas lights to adorn their homes, especially shopping online (Amazon) and at the discount retailers such as B&M Stores. However, whilst usually the lights work straight out of the box what's unknown is how many Christmas's will the lights last for. So in this series of videos we have tested some of the popular seasonal lights over several years of use. In this video we test the popular large hanging colour changing Icicle lights where the same item can be bought from multiple sources such as Amazon. The ones tested in this video were bought from B&M Stores, so find out what one can expect in terms of life span for 2nd and 3rd year use.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
How the Bitcoin Bubble Burst Could Lead to a New Golden Era / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MoneyMetals
One of the greatest asset bubbles of all time appears to have just burst.
It’s not the stock market. Despite recent downside volatility amidst bubble-like valuations, so far stocks have merely entered a correction.
Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have entered into a full-blown meltdown. Bitcoin will go down in history for its extraordinary rise from zero to a high of $19,783 on December 17, 2017. Its subsequent fall may be one for the history books as well.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Wednesday following breaking out above their week-long consolidation. The S&P 500 accelerated higher after breaking above 2,700 mark. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just another advance within a consolidation following the October sell-off?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 2.3-3.0% on Wednesday, as investors sentiment much improved following breaking out above the recent trading range. The S&P 500 index got back above the level of 2,700. It currently trades 6.7% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.0% on Wednesday.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,750, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,780-2,800, among others. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,680-2,700, marked by the recent resistance level.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Should Gold Bulls Open the Champagne? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell spoke yesterday. The gold market considered his remarks as dovish. And the market is always right, isn’t it?
Just Below Neutral
On Wednesday, Powell delivered a speech “The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability” at The Economic Club of New York. The majority of analysts judged the speech as dovish. Why? The key reason was Powell’s view that interest rates were close to neutral:
Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Well that was quick. Less than 2 months ago Fed chairman Powell said that interest rates were “far below neutral” (implying that rates needed to be hiked much more). After the stock market has fallen 10%, Powell now thinks that “interest rates are close to being neutral” (implying that fewer rate hikes are needed).
The stock market rallied on this news.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Love. Fear. Inflation. A Precious Metals' Trifecta / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: MoneyMetals
By David Smith: Going forward, there are – and will continue to be – three primary drivers of global physical gold (and silver) demand.
During certain times in the past only one or two of these elements provided most of the momentum.
However, as we move into 2019, and for possibly the next 5-10 years, all three will be in play. They will operate synergistically to consistently motivate increased precious metals' buying around the globe. This will happen, even as meeting that demand with sufficient new supply becomes problematic.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
BEA Leaves US 3rd Quarter 2018 GDP Unchanged at 3.50% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2018, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.50% annual rate, up +0.01% from their previous estimate but still down -0.66% from the prior quarter. The +0.01% improvement in the headline number masks a troublesome shift in the composition of that growth from consumer spending to even more inventory growth. The headline contribution from consumer spending on goods and services weakened by -0.24% and the growth is now lower than the prior quarter. Offsetting that was an upward revision to inventories (+0.20%), which are now reported to be growing at a +2.27% annualized rate. As a consequence, the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy (the "real final sales of domestic product") was revised downward by -0.19%, now dropping by over four percent (-4.10%) from the prior quarter.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
GBP/USD – Double Bottom or Further Declines? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous week, GBP/USD wavered around the lower border of the declining trend channel. Yesterday, currency bears pushed the pair below it, testing the mid-November low. Will we see a post-double-bottom rally in the following days?
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
UK Government and Bank of England BrExit Economic Armageddon Propaganda / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hours after the UK Government published it's economic consequences of a NO DEAL BrExit, forecasting a 9% loss of GDP after 15 years. The head at the heart of Britains banking establishment, the Bank of England set forth it's NO DEAL Economic Armageddon scenario, literally warning of economic collapse on a scale twice that of the 2008 Financial Crisis. One of a near immediate NO DEAL currency collapse, GDP collapse of 9%, house prices crash of 30% and inflation soaring to over 6.5%. The people of Britain being subjected to Operation FEAR on an even greater scale than that which the Bank of England was peddling prior to the June 2016 EU Referendum, then warning of a BrExit recession if the people of Britain voted for freedom, NONE of which materialised as the UK economy continued to grow on a similar trend trajectory it was on as before the EU Referendum BrExit result.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From a high of $77 barely 6 weeks ago the crude oil price has been on a relentless downwards slide, slicing through key support levels all the way to a new low for the year of just $50! A move that NO ONE saw coming! With the key triggering price point coming late October when the oil price failed to hold support at $64.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Gold Joins the Decline – the Earth is Shaking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined in a quite visible way yesterday, which is in tune with our previous expectations. In the previous days it was only silver and miners that declined in a meaningful manner, but yesterday gold joined them, making this a sector-wide decline. Is this the groundbreaking decline that we have been writing about for so long? Time will tell, but the earth is already shaking.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: F_F_Wiley
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.
We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.
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