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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Sunday, October 11, 2020

Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold stocks are "churning out some serious profits that are likely to just keep getting better."

It's not too late for you to buy gold and gold stocks on the cheap.

If you haven't already, you may want to seriously consider it.

That move might set you up for a run over the next few years that could turn into your single best investment…ever.

You see, gold stocks are churning out some serious profits that are likely to just keep getting better.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It didn’t take long for the mining stocks to turn south once again. No wonder, given that their breakdown was more than verified.

Additionally, they also got bearish support from gold, the stock market, and the USD Index, which also confirmed their decisive move. For more details, let’s take a closer look at the chart below.

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Economics

Saturday, October 10, 2020

What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

Our economic prospects looked bleak back in March and April. Much of the economy was closed down, we didn’t know how bad the virus would get, and it was hard to see a good outcome.

Now the outlook is relatively better. Unemployment, GDP, and other indicators aren’t great but they’ve improved. Yet a “better” outlook isn’t necessarily a good one. It’s just “not as bad.”

Today’s numbers would be considered terrible if we weren’t comparing them to truly disastrous numbers from last spring. We avoided the worst because fiscal income replacement and business lifelines maintained consumer spending, and in some cases increased it.

If you fly a lot as I do (or used to), you’ve heard the term “stall speed.” An airplane needs to go a certain speed in order to stay aloft.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 10, 2020

This Is What The Stock Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.

I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.”

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Companies

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Here Is Everything You Must Know About Insolvency / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

When a company commences business in the market, it has set objectives, functions, and roles. No corporation ever dreams of going into liquidation of becoming insolvent. The framework of law provides specific guidelines, rules, and regulations to assist the procedure of insolvency. Usually, insolvency takes place when the company is going in loss; it is not able to manage its finances and is thriving to survive in the market. Insolvency of a company has a lot to do with the law rather than the dynamics of the market. The internal functionality of corporations has to be transparent with the authorities to not land up in any form of legal action. Let us now understand the meaning and procedure of insolvency and legal accompaniments along with it. 

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Local

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Sheffield Coronavirus Warning - UK Heading for Higher Covid-19 Infections than April Peak! / Local / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

Where does Sheffield stand in the face of the Coronavirus Pandemic 2nd wave ?

Sheffield at 523 cases per 100,000 population over the past 7 days is the highest in South Yorkshire which compares against 900-1000 into the April first peak, Sheffield and much of the rest of South yorkshire is heading for near total lock downs with only really schools remaining open to prevent total economic paralysis. Pubs. and clubs will definably soon close with restraints greatly restricted to the extent of their operations to delivery's and takeaways.

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2020

Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The real US GDP plunged with a 31.4 percent annual rate in Q2 of 2020. In that regard, what’s next for the American economy and the gold market?

We all know that the second quarter was disastrous for the US economy. And now, it’s official. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the third real GDP estimate in the Q2. According to the report, the real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent (slightly better than the second estimate of 31.7-percent plunge), or 9 percent more from the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2019, as the chart below shows. In other words, the US economy has suffered the sharpest contraction since the government started keeping records in 1947.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 09, 2020

Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

In a world buffeted by political and social "noise," sector expert Michael Ballanger outlines his strategy for maximizing the worth of his portfolio. Before I wade into my Q4 strategy analysis, I have to tell you that prior to last Tuesday's "debate," I was leaning toward a "neutral" investment strategy largely based upon the 2016 outcome where heavily favored Hillary Clinton was upset by the Trump Train at the last hour, and in direct opposition to what every poll was predicting. I have a theory about the 2016 election and just exactly why the pollsters got it so completely wrong. I will explain.

I majored in marketing and finance from 1976's ninth-ranked undergraduate business school in the United States, Saint Louis University, a Jesuit institution of immense reputation and stature. In the marketing courses, they taught us that surveys are only relevant when they have a representative sample size. If you are asking a group of Canadians their opinion of Budweiser beer, you will get a skewed result. If you ask a group of Japanese whether they like "fish and chips," you will get a skewed result. If, in October 2016, you could not find a group of Americans living in the Ozarks or the Louisiana bayou or the Montana wilderness, you would never have obtained a representative sample of the pulse of the 2016 election. And that was where the pollsters went wonky. They chose to speak to metrosexual millennials with the colored glasses and Starbucks lattes rather than the guy in the F150 with the Confederate flag draped in the back window and two shotguns in the rack.

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Commodities

Friday, October 09, 2020

A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

‘A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade’

As we turn the calendar to October, often a daunting month for financial markets, the same toxic mix that has bedeviled the global economy for most of 2020 remains in full force – the pandemic, the crippled economy, the money printing, and the disheveled politics. For its part, gold held up under the pressure of a September consolidation that threatened at one point to become a full correction, but the selling dissipated, cautious buying re-entered the market and the price went back over the $1900 mark. October always brings a sense of foreboding given its history, and we can only hope that the rest of the month will go significantly better than the start. Gold tends to move to the forefront when things go bump in the night, but then again, gold has been in the forefront for most of 2020 – prompting some analysts to proclaim the launch of a new leg in its long-term secular bull market.

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Companies

Friday, October 09, 2020

Why You Should Look for Stocks Climbing Out of a “Big Base” / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: John_Mauldin

By Justin Spittler : Today I’m going to show you a trading tactic so simple, yet so reliable, it’ll allow you to predict when certain stocks will skyrocket days or even weeks in advance.

Master this tactic and it’ll feel like you’ve got a “cheat code” to the markets. Let me show you exactly how it works. In short, you want to identify stocks that are climbing out of a “base.”

A stock forms a base when it trades within a narrow price range for a period of time. In other words, the stock isn’t crashing, and it’s not zooming higher (yet).

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Politics

Friday, October 09, 2020

UK Coronavirus Pandemic Wave 2 - Daily Covid-19 Positive Test Cases Forecast / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave

The number of people testing positive has started to soar doubling from 3,000 a week ago to the latest released data of 6,178. Furthermore the ONS estimates that there are approximately 110,000 people across the UK that are infected right now which would imply that the actual number of infected per 100,000 is 168, as against the official figure of of just 40, so four times the official number are actually infected.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, October 09, 2020

Ryzen ZEN 3: The Final Nail in Intel's Coffin! Cinebench Scores 5300x, 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Here's why now is one of the best times to consider upgrading your old PC to a new system based on the just launched AMD Zen 3 5000 series processors.

The Zen 3 launch has surprised all to the upside and is thus set to have an even more devastating impact on Intel's market share as AMD decidedly takes the gaming crown away from Intel's flag ship 10900k processor.

Even worse for Intel is that it looks like ALL of Zen 3 CPU skews will BEAT Intel's 10900k in single core bench marking and thus most games if the cinebench scores for the two processors launched pan out i.e. the 5900x and the 5950.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 08, 2020

How Soon Will We See Stock Market SPX 4000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those of you that follow me closely, you would know that I announced my desire for the market to strike the 2200SPX region back in late 2017. That was my ideal target to be struck before the market began a rally which I expected would exceed the 4000SPX region. I again reiterated this potential in early January of 2020:

“if the market is unable to maintain that support (3100SPX) within this pullback, it will again raise the probabilities of seeing the 2200SPX region before we see the 4000 region.
For now, the market has drawn its lines in the sand, and is providing us rather clear guideposts for 2020. As I said last year, the action in the first quarter of 2020 will set the tone for the rest of the year.” (January 26, 2020)

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Stock Market Spy ETF Testing March Price Peak – What Do the Charts Say? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The SPY has been trading below its previous peak resistance level from March for more than two weeks and has begun to retest this level.
  • If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.
  • If not, then we may see more of a sideways/melt-down phase headed into the US Presidential Elections.

The SPY, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, has been trading below the $339.50, previous peak resistance level, for more than two weeks recently and has begun to retest this level.  I believe these levels are critical in determining the future trending capacity of the SPY and the US stock market.  If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.  If not, then we may see more of a sideways/melt-down phase headed into the US Presidential Elections.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 08, 2020

5 Consequences of US Debt at $50 Trillion / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

With the US set to breach the $50 trillion mark in debt by 2030, here are five things we should start thinking about sooner rather than later.

1. Raising taxes will not solve the problem. Of course, it could help reduce the deficit some, but it would be more of a token. That is just the reality. From the Tax Foundation, here are the real numbers as of 2017.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Long Term Cycles Suggest Stock Price Reversion Pending & Gold Price About To Explode High / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • In the early 1900s, multiple events prompted a rising commodity price level and a decline in the Stocks to Commodities ratio. We expect commodities may begin to appreciate and where stock price levels may stall or decline.
  • We also believe we are currently nearing the end of a rising cycle in both Stocks to Commodities and S&P500 to Earnings ratios, suggesting a downward/sideways trend in the US stock market will continue while commodities attempt to form a longer-term momentum base.
  • The current 100-year Gold cycle suggests a Recovery phase is nearly complete and we should expect an Appreciation phase to begin within 2 years (or less). Historically, the Appreciation phase prompts a 200% to 300%+ rally in Gold prices.

My research team and I have been pouring over the long-term data related to the current global markets and central bank efforts to support the global economy in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic… and we have some keen insights I would like to share with you.  This research article highlights historical chart phases and trends and shows you how important it is to pay attention to cycles and Super-Cycle events as they continue to trend. 

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, October 08, 2020

AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 5000 Launch - Performance, Prices Skews, Cinebench r20 Scores, 5800x, 5900x, 5950x / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

It's less than 2 hours to go before the big reveal at 5pm UK time when we finally get to discover the magic that AMD has worked on it's ZEN 3 5000 series of processors, Yes they will be 5000 series and not 4000 series as I concluded way back in May 2020 because AMD had already released their 4000 series APU's which are based on Zen 2 and not Zen 3 i.e. last Gen so would sow much confusion in the minds of many prospective buyers assuming that for instance a 4700x and 4700G were of the same generation when they are not.

What IPC Increase! My expectations since May have been to expect an increase of between about 15% and 22%, since which there is speculation that single core could achieve a gain of as much as 27% whilst multi-core a gain of about 15%.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Gold vs. Silver – Absolutely No Comparison / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

In the five months between March and August this year, the price of silver increased from a fourteen-year low of $11.77 per ounce to a seven-year high of $29.26. That is a whopping gain of one hundred sixty-three percent.

Meanwhile, gold’s price rose from its low of $1472 per ounce to a recent high of $2061. That represents a gain of forty percent, which is certainly a handsome number. Nevertheless, silver’s performance outshone gold by a ratio of four-to-one.

However, five months doesn’t tell the whole story. For those who were and are, hopeful that this is just the beginning of silver’s day in the sun, be warned. Looking at the bigger picture historically, silver can’t hold a candle to gold.

We referred above to silver’s price outperformance relative to gold for the most recent five months. Here is a chart that shows that same performance within the context of the past five years…

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Commodities

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Gold: Why You Should Be Wary of the "Consensus" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI


Recent sentiment toward the yellow metal matched peak 2011 levels

You may recall investor optimism that attended gold's then record high of $1921.50 in September 2011.

A Gallup poll from that time period captured the prevailing sentiment. The Sept. 2, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said a monthly publication which provides forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, said:

Perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top is a recent Gallup poll showing Americans now consider gold to be the best long-term investment. Gallup parsed the survey by gender, age, income level and political affiliation and in every single subset, gold won out. ... Everyone is onboard gold's uptrend. It is surely a sign of exhaustion.

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Politics

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

UK Covid-19 Hospital Admissions and Deaths Since Testing Positive in 28 days Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britains incompetent government has once more lost control of the Chinese Coronavirus pandemic that is now at the very beginnings of a second wave that looks set to be about half as severe as that of March and Aprils first wave

As you will see in the graph that the UK is nowhere near the magnitude of the first wave, and illustrates the extent of the lack of testing during the first wave as currently some 1,500 people are hospitalised compared to 20,000 at the peak.

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