Monday, October 01, 2018
Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were virtually flat on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent record-breaking rally. The S&P 500 index remains close to its September the 21st record high, but will it resume its uptrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors sentiment remained basically unchanged following some economic data announcements along with the third quarter's ending. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 more than a week ago on September the 21st. It currently trades 0.9% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.05% on Friday.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Gold and Silver: Bottoming is a Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last Friday we examined the fact that gold has now fallen 6 months in a row. Historically, this suggests that gold is at a short term bottom.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Current State / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018.
Firstly a recap of my forecast for the crude oil price for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Predicting Markets is Like Forecasting the Weather / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last week, my forecast was for a dollar rally, (which we are in the midst of) a drop in the mining indexes into around Oct 4/8 (going down since Tuesday) and a top on Sept 21 on the SPX and down into around Oct 8th.The lack of any real selling on the stock market since the Sept 21st top leads me to believe the bottom is going to be further out than I thought. Now my forecast is for a bottom around Oct 17th (based on the 4 year cycle Oct ’14). I still think we hold to a 5-6% decline on the S&P 500 (SPX 2792).
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Gold: New Bull Or Same Old Bear? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Savage
There are two schools of thought right now, and both sides are firmly convinced they are correct.
The bullish case: Gold started a new cyclical bull market in late 2015.
The bearish case: The bounce out of the 2015 bottom was just a counter trend bear market rally, and at best gold is stuck in a long sideways channel similar to the 1980-2001 period.
While I have to admit there is a lot of compelling evidence to support the bearish scenario I’m not convinced that is correct.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Stock Market On the Cusp / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Breaking to a new high has only delayed the anticipated correction into mid-October.
Last week’s action suggests that it may have already started.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
The Cannabis Arbitrage Deal of the Decade / Commodities / Cannabis
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Why Gambling on Gambling Stocks is Really Just Like Gambling / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Will Stocks Keep Their Upward Momentum in October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX closed beneath Short-term resistance at 12.60, leaving it on a sell signal for a third week in a row. It appears to be in a holding pattern for the end of the quarter. However, the Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through late October.
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Gold And Silver – Still Weak, Qrtly, Mthly, Wkly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Michael_Noonan
We did an interview with Rory from The Daily Coin, last week, and we mentioned how crypto currencies could be problematic for gold and silver. Their existence could replace the massive fiat debt and preclude any reason for gold and silver to rally. You can find the interview here.
There has been a lot of discussion of a possible reset whereby gold and silver would eventually replace the failing fiats, and that potential scenario was how $10,000/oz gold and $400/oz silver came about, for the most part.
The pertinent question is, which country would want to have a gold and silver backed currency which would severely restrict the ability to issue increased amounts of the currency? Also, every other nation would want to buy and take delivery of any and all available gold and silver. That would not fly, at all. Recall how Nixon closed the gold window back in the 1970s.
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Sheffield Secondary School Place Applications Over Subscription Fraud Crisis / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Despite the construction of several new schools and expansion of many others the crisis in school places continues where one of the primary reasons for which exploded across the mainstream press this week as parents and students of Firvale School went on the rampage as a mass brawl broke out resulting in the deployment of dozens of police officers, a police helicopter and a dog team all to bring the situation back under control as the following video from a popular Sheffield facebook page illustrates.
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Forex and Crypto Market Forecasts / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
It might not feel like it, but you only have a couple of months left to hit your 2018 trading goals.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International (EWI) can help you get there. Free.
In fact, their Forex FreeWeek event is worth your time even if you’re not actively trading forex.
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
The US Dollar Not the IMF Can Save Argentina / Economics / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The International Monetary Fund’s $50 billion agreement with Argentina is failing. Earlier this month a scheduled $3 billion payment was postponed while the IMF and the country’s government continued to haggle in Buenos Aires. The peso extended its precipitous fall against the greenback.
The backdrop to this misery is President Mauricio Macri’s weak reform program combined with the IMF’s misdiagnosis of Argentina’s problems. Mr. Macri replaced the left-wing populist Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in December 2015. He inherited a rapidly growing public sector, huge fiscal deficits due to massive subsidies for key products, annual inflation of more than 30%, capital controls, and a dual exchange-rate system. With a slim majority in the National Congress, and facing midterm elections in October 2017, Mr. Macri adopted a gradualist approach to reform.
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
Gold Investors: It Is Time for a Logic Lesson / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses distortions in the markets. Here is a question for any and all of you that have ever purchased a lottery ticket or played the slots or bet on a horse: If you had proof that the outcomes were all rigged, would you still play? If someone showed you a video of pit bosses stacking decks or tampering with dice, would you ever enter that establishment again? If your wife or mother or employer knew that you would constantly blow your paychecks in a rigged casino, would you ever be able to face them? The answer to all of the above-mentioned scenarios is a resounding "NO!" Yet millions of people (albeit that figure is rapidly shrinking) are still committing many hundreds of millions of dollars every week to the Crimex Casino, which has now proven that every single input into determining prices for gold and silver (Bitcoin, too) is completely controlled by the bullion banks, the Crimex bosses and the regulators.
Saturday, September 29, 2018
How Often to Change Engine Oil and Filter Land Rover Discovery Sport / ConsumerWatch / Motoring
By: N_Walayat
The latest video in my Land Rover Discovery Sports series answers the question of how often should Disco Sport owners change their car's engine oil and filter. Which is not as obvious as it should be for Land Rover sales pitch is to change your engine oil once every 2 years or 21,000 miles, which ever comes first. But as my video reveals that may not work in real world, so owners could be putting their cars engines at risk if they relied just on the sales pitch and left the oil change for the 2 year service.
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
The Potential Market for Online Gambling / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Friday, September 28, 2018
Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Fact: The direction of interest rates does not determine the stock market's trend
Investing is hard. You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis, listen to talk shows and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next.
One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates means lower stocks.
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Friday, September 28, 2018
Fed Quantitative Tightening is Stock Bull’s Death Knell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative-tightening campaign is finally ramping to its full-steam speed in Q4. That will destroy $50b per month of quantitative-easing money created out of thin air! QT will need to maintain this terminal pace for over two years to meaningfully unwind the Fed’s grotesquely-bloated balance sheet. This record tightening poses a dire threat to today’s QE-inflated overvalued stock markets.
This week traders are focused on the Fed’s 8th rate hike of this cycle, which was universally expected. Ever since the FOMC’s previous meeting in early August, federal-funds futures have implied odds of another hike way up at 91% to 100% at this latest meeting. But the Fed’s ongoing hiking pales in comparison with what it’s doing with its balance sheet. One year after its birth, quantitative tightening is hitting full speed.
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Friday, September 28, 2018
The Russell 2000’s “inside month”. Ready for a Stock Market Christmas Present? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Russell 2000 (small caps index) is on the verge of making a DOWN “inside month”. A DOWN “inside month” is when:
- The market goes down this month, AND…
- This month’s HIGH is below last month’s HIGH, while this months LOW is above last month’s LOW.
Friday, September 28, 2018
XEU & XJY Forex Markets Charts Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
Sometimes a stock can push you just far enough to make you doubt the validity of your analysis just at the most opportune time. Such has been the case for the US dollar where all the evidence strongly suggests it’s in a bull market. I’m not going to go into a lot of detail right here, but I want to show you a couple of charts for the XEU and the XJY that still suggest they’re weak compared to the US dollar.
This first chart is a daily bar chart for the XEU which shows the possible H&S top building out. The last time we looked at this chart the price action was building out the right shoulder with the neckline symmetry line showing the height of the right shoulder. As you can see the XEU traded slightly higher than the neckline symmetry line which for a few days looked like the possible H&S top maybe failing. Note the gap above the neckline symmetry line and now the gap below the neckline symmetry line which shows an island reversal above the neckline symmetry line, see sidebar for more clarity. The year plus H&S top is still in play IMHO.
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