Saturday, September 25, 2021

Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Paul_Rejczak

Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go?

Fundamental Updates

The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021.

The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4!

Saturday, September 25, 2021

Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences / Politics / cryptocurrency

By: Raymond_Matison

Almost all countries of the producing and developed world have made a policy decision as to how to define crypto currencies, and they do not define them as securities.  The United States has not finalized its singular definition as its designation is not uniform among agencies: the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines virtual crypto currencies as commodities, while the Internal Revenue Service defines them as property on which to collect capital gains taxes.  The U.S. Treasury Department Financial Crimes Enforcement Network sees them as “counterfeit money” to be treated accordingly, and the Securities Exchange Commission wants to treat them as securities, which they would regulate.   It is clear, that there is a “turf war” taking place as to which agency is to exert control regulation over this new virtual asset.  There is much at stake: much more than which agency will regulate cryptocurrencies or be able to “extract favors” from the implementers of this new asset class.  However, if policy decisions are not constructive to supporting this fast-growing industry, or if this decision takes too long to reach, the dynamic entrepreneurs will move to countries which are more supportive. 

Let’s be clear, decisions have consequences, and how we define and regulate cryptocurrencies will have long-term nation-impacting consequences.  Political leaders base most of their decisions and cast their votes in Congress for near term political benefits – as most will be out of the government when the long term consequences become operative.  For example, politician’s support for increased government spending is nearly universal, despite the fact that over the longer term government debt accumulates to consequential levels.  

Saturday, September 25, 2021

The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness

By: Anika_Walayat

British teen Emma Raducanu has rocked the tennis world by winning the US Open ($2.5 million prize money) and making history by being the first Brit to win Grand Slam Singles title in 44 years, instantly becoming one of the best know British sports stars barely weeks after collecting her A level results.

Her success has galvanised many youngsters across the UK to pick up their tennis rackets and head off for the local tennis courts. Where here we have one aspiring young Tennis player, Anika pleasing the crowds at Millhouses park. So watch this space of the next Emma Raducanu!

Friday, September 24, 2021

Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war is entirely reasonable as Evergrande failed to spook the markets more. Just wait for what happens when the markets come face to face with another unacknowledged event of this magnitude. In our era, it‘s about the contagion effect, manic-depressive market psychology, and uncertainty of the impact.

It‘s not only about China real estate cooling down, spilling over to Hong Kong. Wtll the House approval on the bill to suspend fresh borrowing obstacles and avoid a partial shutdown do? What would the Senate say – and then everyone as the tax tsunami keeps approaching? Global liquidity isn‘t rising after all either.

Fed taper is a side show, but still one that too many are glued to. The dollar would suffer if it doesn‘t materialize later today – and it won‘t be announced, which would make precious metals rejoice.

Back to stocks, these are also likely to welcome no taper. The Fed has been already tightening (which means these days it was decreasing the pace of expansion) through the back door, bringing down inflation expectations in spite of the real world input costs, shipping rates and frail supply chains challenges on top of the job market issues. Transitory inflation is still the mainstream thesis – the shift to real assets will become more accentuated once the realization of a higher and entrenched inflation arrives. And it‘s not about real estate and owners‘ equivalent rent either.

Friday, September 24, 2021

Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: HGR

Buying a cheap mattress foam from Amazon, here's what to expect in terms delivery, packaging, Unboxing and of course use, what chemical smell to expect and how long will it take to dissipate. How much will the foam mattress expand and who best can use it i.e. is it thick enough for someone who weighs over 200lbs or is is just for small light adults and teens, find out in our latest real customer review.

Friday, September 24, 2021

Evergrande not a Minsky Moment / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Richard_Mills

The selloff in stocks that started last week and continued on Monday has some market observers wondering whether this is a “Minsky Moment”.

This refers to the idea that periods of bullish speculation will eventually lead to a crisis, wherein a sudden decline in optimism causes a spectacular market crash. 

Thursday, September 23, 2021

UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs / Personal_Finance / Household Bills

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK Gas Market Panic! Apparently energy firms are going bust, or are they? Wh at's the odds most of these firms going bust are going to soon reappear under a slightly different name with probably the same staff and premises. We are being SCAMMED! UK Energy customers are being SCAMMED out of their Fixed rate tariffs because the greedy basket energy firms did NOT HEDGE the natural gas price that they were busy encouraging prospective customers to fix at! Now they want to cancel the contracts by offloading the customers onto the regulators who is then going to dump the customers onto other energy firms on much higher tariffs, probably TRIPLE the tariffs that the customers had been fixed at. What a CON! What a SCAM! The directors of any energy company perpetuating such as scam should be blacklisted!

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first part of this research article, I highlighted a number of factors and technical charts that suggest the true peak in the US/Global markets happened in April/May 2021. Although the US markets continued to trend higher after that peak, the global markets, as well as a number of key indicators, suggested the bullish price trend had reached a peak and started to weaken after the April/May 2021 peak.

My assumption is this data shows the markets entered a highly speculative phase of trading after the November 2020 elections. History shows us that the 12+ months prior to a US Presidential election are usually filled with uncertainty and sideways market volatility. Then, just after the US Presidential election is completed, the markets usually enter into a trending phase related to the expectations and promises of the newly elected US President. 2020 was no different in this process. What was different was the fact that the US Federal Reserve was still pouring trillions into supporting the post-COVID global economic recovery. So this post US Presidential election rally may have become a super-charged speculative rally phase with the US Fed backing the trends.

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK / Politics / Coronavirus 2021

By: N_Walayat

Covid-19 is less severe in children though some do get long covid symptoms Astrazenica was the Aldi version of vaccines, good but higher risk, Pfizer is more the Tesco or Sainsbury version, a little more effective and a little safer. Yes, the risks of covid and its many variants in Children is very low.

However, the key benefits of vaccinating kids is that it greatly reduces transmission, spread of the virus to others i.e. the vaccinated infected shed much less viral particles, given that the virus has not gone away as the latest graphs illustrate.

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Corruption at the Fed: Are America’s Money Masters Engaged in Self-Dealing? / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

By Jp Cortez : America’s central bankers are tasked with impartial oversight over aspects of the American economy. But could these individuals be making decisions on interest rates and bailout operations based on what is best for their own personal investment portfolios?

After some embarrassing revelations regarding the trading activities of two senior officials, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell abruptly ordered a comprehensive examination last week into internal compliance with an ethics rule directing Fed employees to avoid “actual and apparent conflicts of interest.”

Thursday, September 23, 2021

HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE / Personal_Finance / Insurance

By: Submissions

Saving money on the cost of your car insurance is a simple task if you know what to look for, and what to ask for. Do not be afraid to ask questions when talking to an insurance agent. If the company that you are chatting with is hard to work with, or will not give you any help, then move on to the next carrier.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Paul_Rejczak

Trading energy ETFs outside of US exchanges can be tricky, as it often means lower liquidity and some latency, but is it worth trying? Definitely!

Let’s do a comparative study between the WTI Crude Oil (CL) and an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) tracking this energy commodity as the underlying asset.

Prelude

In the previous two-part series (see Part I & Part II), we presented different ways to trade energies such as stocks, ETFs, CFDs and futures. We saw that picking the right instrument or vehicle depended on businesses, regions, risk profiles, psychology, etc. So, today, as an example, we will compare the well-known WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract (quoted in US dollars) with a 2:1 (2x) leveraged ETF traded in Toronto, in Canadian dollars.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: EWI

Hi reader,

Bitcoin and the gang have been the epitome of volatility lately -- and September brought more drama.

Our friends at the world's largest market-forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International, tell us that from where they sit, it's a critical time for cryptos.

In fact, they're watching support and resistance price points in Bitcoin and other cryptos that few traders know about. And they want to show them to you -- free.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might not be over, and the question is how far will it reach on a fresh attempt – 4,350s look attainable.

There, the fate of this correction would be decided, but we‘re on the verge of the historically more volatile part of Sep, and tomorrow‘s FOMC would up the ante. The dollar though was unable to rally, to keep intraday gains – on one hand a certain show of strength given the retreat in Treasury yields, on the other hand, proof of stiff headwinds as the world reserve currency isn‘t in a bull market. I‘m leaning towards the latter explanation.

As stocks rebound in what may still turn out to be a dead cat bounce, commodities got clobbered too – just as cryptos did. Gold attracted safe haven demand as money flew to Treasuries as well. Miners with silver holding ground, are a good sign for the sector – the overwhelmingly negative sentiment looks getting long in the tooth.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots / Currencies / US Dollar

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The declining medium-term outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks will eat away at the honey pot of US dollar bears. Get ready for bee stings.

With headline after headline attempting to knock the USD Index off of its lofty perch, I warned on Sep. 13 that dollar bears will likely run out of honey sooner rather than later.

I wrote:

While the USD Index was under fundamental fire in recent weeks, buyers eagerly hit the bid near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. And after positive sentiment lifted the greenback back above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern last week, the USDX’s medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish.

More importantly, though, after the USD Index rallied by 0.63% last week and further validated its bullish breakout, gold, silver, and mining stocks ran in the opposite direction. And with the divergence likely to accelerate over the medium term, the swarm should sting the precious metals during the autumn months.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know / InvestorEducation / Trading Systems

By: Russell_Fenton

MetaTrader 5 is an advanced trading platform that features a wide range of asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. It is a multiple asset platform for modern traders considering taking their trading experience to the next level with practical and robust features. Read on to understand these features.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to unfold where China's giant property developer Evergrande is the canary in the coal mine, tip of the ice-berg, China's Lehman's moment that looks set to default on $300 billion of debts. Here's what the giant property developers stock price looks like.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Silver Futures Market Speculators Crushed Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The gold and silver futures markets were designed to increase volatility and discourage physical ownership of precious metals, as revealed in 1970s-era disclosures. The futures markets have also created opportunities for manipulation.

Today, the corruption is on full display for anyone who cares to look at the Wiki-Leaks documents, criminal prosecutions, and the other piles of evidence detailing foul play.

Yet the global price for precious metals is still set by these futures markets. And the trading volume has even grown, even as prices appear increasingly unhinged from fundamental drivers impacting supply and demand for the underlying metals.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Yeah, I know everyone is so certain that inflation is what we will be battling for the foreseeable future. The main reason why many of you are so certain we are battling inflation is because you are seeing prices rise on food and other items for which you shop. But, do rising prices really mean we are dealing with the true economic definition of inflation?

To be honest, I really don’t care what you call it. It makes no difference to me since our analysis tells me when to get in and out of the market. You see, I and many others correctly recognize that the stock market leads the economy. So economic definitions have no bearing upon our forward-looking expectations regarding the stock market. And, I have explained why this is the case in past articles: