Thursday, August 13, 2015
Crude Oil Price Reverses - Was that THE Bottom? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Crude oil declined yesterday, but the session was not without a rebound. In fact, the move higher continues also today as black gold is at almost $44. Have we just seen a major triple bottom in crude oil?
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Will The Stock Market Return to Earth This Summer? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
What accounts for the equity bull market's stubborn refusal to bend to the bears' will despite a clear lack of internal strength? That's the question investors are asking right now in what has been a grinding, directionless stock market this summer.
The answer to that question is simple to answer, yet complex when you look below its surface. Corporate funds are driving this bull market much more so than direct participation by small retail investors. The pattern that has been established since the start of this year has been a case of wash, rinse, repeat: the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rallies to either a new high or a previous high, then the sellers enter to force stock prices lower. The sellers rarely succeed in pushing the SPX much below its 200-day moving average before the buyers step back in to regain control. The net result of this continual process has been a lateral trading range for much of this year.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Gold Miners Are Saying It's Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
Back in early July I published the view that we needed “Just a Little Bit More“ downside to complete the gold Investor Cycle. All of the indicators and tools we used to spot these turns were firmly in place and it had become a matter of cleaning out the remaining bulls before turning. At the time of publishing, gold stood at $1,130, and my expectation was for one more decline, below $1,110, in order to complete the Cycle and form a major Investor Cycle Low.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Top 3 Technical Trading Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
Elliott Wave International senior analyst shows you how to identify quality trade setups
"I always will be an Elliottician, but other technical tools have merit and are indeed worthwhile: they allow me to build a case, build a more confident reason for making a forecast and for taking a trade; making a trading decision." -Jeffrey Kennedy
I recently asked Elliott Wave International analyst Jeffrey Kennedy to name his 3 favorite technical tools (besides the Wave Principle). He told me that Japanese candlesticks, RSI, and MACD Indicators are currently his top methods to support trade setups.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
The Fiat Yuan / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Seth Lipsky/The New York Sun/8-11-2015
“If the Communist Chinese devalue the yuan against a dollar that is appreciating against gold, has the yuan gone up or down? We ask because the leading story on the New York Times Web site this morning reports not only that the Chicom authorities ‘sharply devalued’ the renminbi but also that the move ‘could raise geopolitical tensions and weigh on growth elsewhere.’ We ran the Times’ entire text through the Sun’s old hand-crank Von Mises brand language-specie prose separator. It failed to find any mention of — or even allusion to — gold.”
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Gold & Silver Correlations for August 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Correlation seems almost like a magical word. In fact, most people don’t have to use this term more often than a couple of times a year. In the world of investing, however, correlation is an important concept which has to do with how different assets move in relation to one another. Before we even dive into what correlation means in the world of statistics, we’ll focus on the intuition behind it.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Saudi Crude Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide? / Commodities / Crude Oil
In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market's swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices.In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for "a year or two." At the November OPEC meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, publicly announced Saudi Arabia would allow market forces to set prices. He argued that rapidly growing production outside OPEC made the existing status quo unviable, and that lower prices in the short term would increase prices in the longer term through reduced investment and ultimately benefit all OPEC members.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Currency Devalution - It's China's Turn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Devaluing currencies from the US to Japan, Eurozone and China. Although Japan started zero interest rate policy back in the mid-1990s, for a more relevant comparison, we start the analysis post-2008/9 crisis.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Cable Companies Hurting Amid Selloff / Companies / Sector Analysis
It all started with three words during Disney’s earnings call with analysts. When talking about the company’s ESPN segment, CEO Bog Iger mentioned that Disney had experienced “some subscriber loss.”The stock slid 8% and is currently down almost 10% from its high before the earnings report came out. Disney isn’t the only one hurting, though. Viacom fell 14% after reporting lower-than-expected revenue due to weakness in its cable TV business. Time Warner, Fox, Comcast and CBS were also hit hard.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Student Finance Bank Accounts - Choose Wisely / Personal_Finance / Student Finances
Within the next month, many students will be heading to university, and for some this could be the first time they will live away from home and be solely in charge of their money.
As a new chapter in their lives begins, students need to make sure they learn how to manage their finances throughout their further education, and one of the best starting points is picking a good student bank account.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) Surges Following China’s Devaluation / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Following China’s devaluation on Tuesday of the yuan, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan currency pair (USD/CNY) has surged, reaching as high as 6.4485 so far today (Wednesday). It has now reached the most overbought level on a weekly basis since 2001 (based on weekly 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator), and is extremely overbought based on the daily chart, getting close to the maximum reading of 100.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Stock Market Crash Potential Over The Next 3-4 Weeks & Possible Final Low In Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
I’ve said all along that if the Fed didn’t get out of the way and let the market correct naturally it would have serious consequences. Well they have not let the market correct naturally. On the contrary ever since QE3 ended there have been more interventions than ever before, and more aggressive. This has kept the market propped up but it’s also built up extreme complacency. We now have a bubble in central bank confidence. When this bubble pops it’s going to unleash a tsunami of selling as everyone runs to the exits all at once.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
The Saudi Crude Oil Price War Is Backfiring / Commodities / Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the status of being the top crude oil exporter in the world. With record production of 10.564 million barrels per day in June 2015, Saudi Arabia has been one of the major driving forces behind the current oil price slump.The Saudis have kept their production levels high since last year in order to drive other players (especially U.S. shale drillers) out of business. Equally clear is the fact that this strategy of maintaining the glut and driving out rivals hasn't worked so far.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Investors Time to Cash in on Tech Breakthrough, Biggest Memory Leap in 25 Years / Companies / Tech Stocks
MoneyMorning.com Michael A. Robinson: Just a couple of weeks ago, we received news about a huge new breakthrough in computer memory.
The announcement has major ramifications for consumer products like smartphones and tablets as well as for the growth markets of cloud computing and Big Data.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
What China’s Surprise Announcement Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just decided to cut the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, by 2%.
The announcement took analysts by surprise and signaled that Beijing has decided to shore up a weakness in exports. It will now almost certainly usher in similar moves by other Asian countries that are China’s exporting competitors.
And behind that cut U.S. oil and gas producers face another painful period.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Junk Bonds - The Next Financial Disaster Starts Here / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By Dan Steinhart
Individual investors take note…
Some of the world’s best money managers are betting on the biggest financial disaster since 2008.
You won’t hear about this from the mainstream media. Networks like NBC or CBS don’t have a clue… just like they didn’t have a clue the US housing market would collapse in 2007.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
U.S. and Canadian Mint Dysfunction Snowballs as Silver Coin Premiums Rise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Clint Siegner writes: Lower precious metals prices on Wall Street aren't necessarily bringing lower prices on Main Street.
The retail market for gold and silver coins, bars, and rounds has been swamped with high demand since mid June. Both the U.S. Mint and the Royal Canadian Mint continue to run into serious issues keeping up with retail silver coin demand.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Dow Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The Dow just saw its 50-day Moving Average cross the 200-day Moving Average in the last day or so.
ZeroHedge reports, “Just as we warned yesterday, unless the Dow can miraculously rally over 17,850, The Dow will close in a Death Cross pattern. This is the first time that the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average since August 2011 (which was followed by a 1300 point swing from high to low in The Dow)...
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
10yr Treasury Notes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
TNX, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, fell for the fourth week in a row with a loss of 1.36% to close at 21.75 on Friday after challenging the 30-dma earlier in the week. TNX remains in the 2015 trend channel and should find support at the lower boundary and 200-dma both which are near 21.34.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
China is Lying About Its Economy / Economics / China Economy
I and a few brave experts such as Jim Chanos, Gordon Chang, and David Stockman (speaking at our upcoming IES conference) have been arguing for years that China has the greatest investment and overbuilding bubble in all of modern history.We’ve also warned that its economic statistics are not real – they are purposefully overstated and then revised later, if at all.
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