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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Physical Gold Production May Be Peaking, But There Is No Shortage In Paper Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008.

The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Critical US Economic Indication to Watch Out For / Economics / US Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

Millennials get a bad rap. Sure, they’re the generation that grew up with participation trophies, winning prizes for completing the arduous task of showing up. And with help from their Boomer professors, they have successfully shamed institutions of higher learning, where for centuries debate was considered a search for the truth, into echo chambers of conformity.

I’ve also just learned that this generation has promoted E-sports (that would be watching other people play video games) into such a big deal that the category will get its own E-sports arena in Arlington, Texas.

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Companies

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Toys R Us Not the Only Major Retail Casualty / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Harry_Dent

Toys R Us just joined the unenviable list of top retail failures of the past decade: Circuit City, Linens-N-Things, A&P (the Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company), Sports Authority, and Radio Shack (whose downfall we called in 2016).

While there are many reasons for the loss of these once household names, and Toys R Us is citing massive debt burdens as one element in its undoing, there is a much bigger – and more predictable – underlying factor.

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Currencies

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Staying Away from the Bitcoin Crypto Bubble / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Harry_Dent

The crypto ship is sailing in rough seas at the moment. My advice? Stay away for now. Preserve your capital for after the major crash, and then pick winners from the bones.

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency trends seem to be following the path the internet took back in the very late 1990s. That bubble came at the end of the tech bubble, and expanded by more than 8 times between late 1998 and early 2000. Then it crashed 93%.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Kit Kat Joe the Mug Easy to Win - Unboxing / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

Kit Kat are literally giving away 50,000 'Joe the Mugs' in an easy to win promotion until the 31st of August 2018. And find out exactly what gets delivered through your letter box in this video.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 26, 2018

The ABCs Of Popping A Third Asset Price Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Dan_Amerman

Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events, even though that looks impossible to begin with. It could be an action movie, where our tough and underestimated hero overcomes seemingly impossible odds to just barely win in the end, after all.

There are movies that play over and over again in the financial markets and the economy as well, and while the particulars change, the plots can repeat themselves.

In this analysis, we are going to take a look at a market "movie" that has played out twice in the modern era, and follow the A-B-C-D plot line that was followed in each case. We will then take a look at more recent events, see if A-B-C have been occurring, and ask if D could be coming after C for the third time in a row?

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Local

Monday, March 26, 2018

Sheffield Tree Fellings Protest Virtual Realty VR 360 Experience / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Sheffield's street fellings may have been suspended due to the forthcoming local elections. However here is about as realistic an experience as one can get without actually being at a Sheffield Street tree felling protest site, in virtual reality 360.

Whilst a VR headset will give you the whole immersed experience of being there, a VR capable browser such as fire fox or chrome will be able to give you a taste of what it's like to be there.

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Local

Monday, March 26, 2018

Labour Sheffield City Council Halts Tree Fellings Ahead of May Local Elections / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The Labour controlled Sheffield City Council announced a halt to the controversial street trees felling programme today that had seen escalating protestor opposition on the streets of Sheffield against the felling of healthy trees that followed the revelation that half of Sheffield's street trees would be felled during the life time of the 25 year PFI contract with Amey..

Since the resumption of felling a month ago the streets of Sheffield have been witness to very heavy police and security presence at felling sites, with upwards of 30 police officers and 20 Hiviz security all towards enabling felling if a single tree. Which has galvanised the people of Sheffield to come out and protest in their hundreds each day against the felling of healthy street trees that tends to result in multiple arrests at each felling site on a daily basis.

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Commodities

Monday, March 26, 2018

Hi-Ho Silver! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

If the latest COT report for silver gets any more bullish than the one released on March 23rd, commercial traders will have to go ‘net long!’   As it is, they reduced their ‘net short’ position to the lowest number in many years, down to just 4,000 contracts – barely 2% of the total open interest!  This is bullish action!   As recently as January 16th the number of ‘net short’ positions was 50,000, and the percentage of open interest was 26%.  (Charts are courtesy Goldchartsrus.com unless specified).

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Commodities

Monday, March 26, 2018

Trade War and Silver CoT – Details and Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case?

Let’s start with the first question. Why did gold rally in the final part of the previous week? The first reason was likely the increased tension regarding interest rates and Powell’s first Fed meeting. This was likely to cause only temporary volatility and it seems that it did. Based on how mining stocks performed relative to the gold market, it certainly seems that the precious metals market wants to go down. But, there’s another fundamental development that triggered another rally in gold (to a smaller extent) – the trade war. This term is too far-fetched – it’s just a trade battle for now. Let’s focus on the practical implications for the precious metals market. In short, just like a few threats between the U.S. and North Korea, the trade tensions between the U.S. and China are a geopolitical event.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 26, 2018

Stocks Set to Bounce Back, but Bulls' Worries Far From Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their sell-off on Friday, as investors reacted to global stocks markets move down, trade war and monetary policy tightening fears. It was some kind of a perfect bearish storm that sent stock prices tumbling on Thursday, and then on Friday. As medium-term bearish case unfolds, we see indexes getting closer to their early February lows. Will they break lower?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.8% and 2.1% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained very bearish following Thursday's sell-off. The S&P 500 index broke below the level of 2,600, as it got closer to its February 9 local low of 2,532.69. It currently trades 9.9% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 2.4% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 26, 2018

Minding the Trade Gap: Gold Breakout, EURUSD chaotic, USDJPY Continuation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Large tax cuts and spending increases enacted by Congress and the Trump administration are poised to push fiscal deficits above $1 trillion in coming years. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co., has dubbed this the “square peg and round hole of fiscal and trade policies”—it’s nearly impossible for a nation to close its trade deficit while widening its fiscal deficit and expecting consumers to keep spending. Ultimately, “fiscal policy will dominate trade policy,” Mr. Feroli said. “Tariffs and other trade restrictions will be insufficient to lean against the overwhelming force.”

Worsening the situation is the fact that U.S. tax revenue declined in February and government spending rose, as the share of wages withheld for taxes dipped as a result of the tax cut passed by Congress late last year.

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Politics

Monday, March 26, 2018

The Future Is Uncertain And The End Is Always Near / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

Spending a week driving around a western state 1,700 miles from my stomping grounds in Pennsylvania provides a different perspective on the level of economic, social and political degradation impacting the country. With a daily commute along the crumbling, crummy, gridlocked deathtrap roadways into West Philadelphia, the squalor and decomposition of our civilization is self-evident.

I live in a corrupt state with the highest gasoline taxes, highest tolls, massively underfunded government pension liability, failing government run public schools, suburban sprawl dotted with ghost malls, vacant industrial parks, and urban ghetto shitholes plagued by drugs, murder, welfare mentality, excessive taxes, and left wing politicians.

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Commodities

Monday, March 26, 2018

Time To Buy Gold As A 'Safe Haven' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the GLD as a proxy for gold. I believe that the GLD can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GLD. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.

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Commodities

Monday, March 26, 2018

Gold Cycle Anomaly & USD Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: SurfCity

Gold update: While I don’t care much for Cycle anomalies (i.e. short of long cycle), I am not going to fight them. Therefore, I am very bullish on Gold given the short ICL that has been left behind but the yellow metal has disappointed before so we still need to be cautious until the next resistance between 1360-1377 is taken out. The next week or 2 are critical, IMO and Gold needs to show some bullish follow through.  My first 5+ year Weekly clearly shows that Gold has been forming a 5 year Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and should explode higher once the over head resistance I have mentioned is taken out.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 26, 2018

Stock Market Ready for a Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 should now continue until May.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 26, 2018

Stock Market Complacency Reigns Supreme / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

I had intended to post part III of my interest rate series, however market conditions dictate that I post views on the current market.  This market is now communicating that it is at high risk.  For two months now,  I have been advocating a strategic retreat.  Head for the sidelines and watch the action with an unemotional detachment.  The market is now sounding the alarm and one should be on high alert for a downside acceleration.

Plunger’s Bullet Points 

Here are the main points I have presented over the past few weeks:

  1. The market has been in a final Phase III since the Trump election- it lasted 16 months.
  2. Secondary Reactions rarely occur in Phase III- Therefore, any major decline could very well be the end of the bull market and not just another correction.
  3. Dec 2017-Jan 2018 was a classic buyers capitulation which traced out as a steeple top in many indexes.
  4. The proper course of action for investors should be to execute a strategic retreat and head towards the sidelines. One could redeploy capital once the market resolves itself according to DOW Theory methodology.
  5. Rising rates are in the process of bursting the largest credit bubble in history.
  6. The bursting of the bubble will usher in a Post Bubble Contraction.
  7. Gold stock bull markets are most robust within the confines of a PBC.
  8. Phase I of a new bull market in the gold stocks began in Jan 2016.
  9. Phase II started in Dec 2016, however initial action is characterized by further consolidation and lethargic action resulting in investor doubt and discouragement.
  10.  Excessive bearishness in the gold sector is unwarranted despite weak looking price action.

The largest financial bubble in history is concluding and one should prepare his bomb shelter and know how to protect oneself.

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Local

Sunday, March 25, 2018

SY Police Hunting and Arresting Bunnies at Sheffield Street Tree Felling Protests / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

March has witnessed a further escalation in the aggressive policing of Sheffield's street tree felling protests with multiple arrests taking place each day. In this video of events on Thornsett Road the Police hunt down and arrest a Bunny which is a protestor who attempts to prevent a felling by getting close to a cordoned off street tree. However this arrest is controversial as the protestor may have had permission to be in the neighbouring garden to the tree as the video illustrates.

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Companies

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Forget Privacy, the REAL Big Tech Scandal Concerns Ad Fraud / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted in mid-2017, Big Tech is in BIG trouble.

There are multiple scandals brewing in this space. And the invasion/ selling of/ handing over of private data is one of the more minor ones.

That larger scandal concerns fraudulent online advertising.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 25, 2018

What Happens After the Stock Market Crashes on Thursday and Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market tanked on Thursday (-2.5%) and Friday (-2%). This is rare. Most of the “down on Thursday and Friday” historical cases saw the S&P fall a little on Thursday and accelerate the decline in Friday.

Nevertheless, this is a bearish sign for next Monday but a short-medium term bullish signal for the stock market. Here’s what happens next when the stock market falls more than 2% on Thursday and on Friday.

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