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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Companies

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Youtube and the wider internet is full of Peloton fan boys, yes the product may be good but that does not mean the stock is in any fit shape to park ones hard earned wealth into, not unless one is gambling. Which is why whenever I was asked about Peloton and other similar over hyped growth stock my response tended to be that it is far too high risk for me. We'll now all those who don't do the maths got to feel the pain of what it is like to be invested in such stocks that dominate the likes of Cathy Woods ARK funds.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.

Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.

“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.

Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.

Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”

Source: WSJ

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.

Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets  / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Canada may no longer be an official part of the United Kingdom (although the Canadians remain loyal to the Queen!), but there’s one thing that the two countries still have very much in common: the penchant for the slot machine, having a wee flutter on sports, and putting a cheeky fiver on red. 

Both Canadians and Brits alike have gambling options aplenty and market revenues consistently hit new highs every single year. 2020 was a bit of an outlier for obvious reasons, yet the market has recovered incredibly well since in both countries. 

Yet despite the obvious similarities, there are several key differences between how the gaming market operates. The following are the most significant; if you’re a gambler, it’ll pay to know them. 

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Firstly, crypto's are VERY HIGH RISK, the crypto bugs constantly talk about how manipulated fiat, stocks and precious metals are hence they seek their financial freedom in decentralised crypto currencies. However in my opinion crypto currencies are probably the most manipulated markets of the lot where huge amounts of coins reside in whale wallets that could be dumped onto the markets at any time. Then there are the inflation rates, crypto coin printing on an epic scale that would even make the Fed's Powell blush where comparatively low prices against all time highs can easily fool unsuspecting crypto investors into buying garbage with masked inflation rates in excess of over 100% that thus can not sustain bull runs to capitalise on until the inflation rates moderate to under 10%, such as that of Filecoin where given the plethora of pump content out there one is hard pressed to determine the true inflation rate that apparently is currently running at 160% against that of say Bitcoin's inflation rate of about 1.6%.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Day That Changed the World?

S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions.

Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing.

While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order.

To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Coronavirus 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.

NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.

Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Submissions

Cryptocurrency in all of its complexity and ambiguity has seen yet another successful year. 

Following the several peaks the crypto market has undergone in 2021, with May presenting itself to be the most volatile out of all. Novice and veteran traders have gone to extreme lengths to cash in on the craze, as U.S. investors made more than $4 billion from Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020.

Crypto is looking more and more as the digital currency of tomorrow with more than 6,000 cryptocurrencies already accessible on the market. While many raise scepticism concerning the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the market size has surged on numerous occasions and we can expect an even more exciting year ahead. 

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Companies

Monday, November 29, 2021

Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich / Companies / Metaverse

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Greetings from the red ticker green ticker stocks metaverse where my latest analysis is focused on how to the metaverse. What is the metaverse? Well VR such as in this video is part of the metaverse then there is augmented reality and then the virtual worlds such as Roblox and Decentraland. Metaverse is nothing new for it is a derivative of AI that I have previously referred to gaming and virtual reality.

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Housing-Market

Monday, November 29, 2021

Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Submissions

Investing in real estate has the capability to steadily generate income, and is a viable long-term investment option. Then again, investing in real estate is a serious undertaking, and you have to be doubly sure before coming to a decision. You can use a real estate investments API to discern whether the time is ripe for buying or selling.

In the US, the real estate sector saw a steep rise in sales even during the pandemic last year. So considering it a seller’s market, the main question is whether you should invest in real estate in 2021 or not.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Silver Long-term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher recently, starting to mean revert out of deep capitulation lows.  Those improving technicals have started thawing the bearish sentiment that plagued this tiny contrarian sector last summer.  The silver stocks’ latest earnings season wrapping up in mid-November revealed how these miners are actually faring operationally and financially.  Do fundamentals justify more gains?

The silver-stock world is really small, with primary silver miners deriving over half their revenues from producing the white metal increasingly-rare.  Only a handful of exchange-traded funds track this forgotten sector, led by the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.  While also miniscule with just $1.2b in net assets in mid-November, SIL is the best-available sector benchmark.  The silver stocks have had a wild ride this year.

Their price action closely mirrors gold stocks’, as silver’s dominant primary driver has always been gold.  So SIL’s swings this year closely tracked those in the leading GDX gold-stock ETF like usual.  Silver stocks were enjoying a solid young upleg last spring, with SIL surging 27.5% between late March to early June.  But silver and thus silver stocks were sucked into gold’s sharp mid-June selloff on Fed-tightening fears.

Gold’s taper tantrum for the Fed starting to slow its epic quantitative-easing money printing unfolded in the months leading into that actual announcement.  Between mid-June to late September, several bouts of heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling crushed the entire precious-metals complex.  The resulting silver-stock carnage hammered SIL 30.2% lower climaxing in an ugly capitulation, fueling serious bearish psychology.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.

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Local

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun / Local / Sheffield

By: Eliza_Walayat

Winter has Arrived! At the real Winterfell, Sheffield with the first snow falling and it wasn't just a small spattering but heavy snowfall, enough for the kid to get out and about and make snowmen and have snowball fights.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE

Remember folks when investing one is not trying to buy the bottoms, one is trying to buy VALUE! There are many metrics for measuring value but for most investors the easiest way to measure value is the P/E Ratio, it is simple and easy to determine and virtually every investment site features the P/E ratios for stocks. Though from my experience many of the sites posted P/E ratios tend to out of date or inaccurate i.e. I calc virtually all of the PE ratios myself by dividing the share price by the earnings per share for the last 4 quarters and that is how one gets the P/E ratio i.e. how many YEARS it would take for the corporation to EARN it's share price.

Now there are many more metrics than that which can be just as important such as whether the corporation printing it's own shares Powell style, Brrrr, so shareholder dilution is another metric I watch among 15 that go towards generating the EC ratio, a quick way to see how expensive or cheap a stock is.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Corsair MP600 is a PCIE4.0 SSD drive with advertised read speeds of upto 4950 mb/s and write speeds of upto 4250 mm/s. Whilst that may be achievable when first bought however many users report a huge loss of performance after using the drives for some months. So here I test an 1tb MP600 drive after 8 months of regular use to test the loss of experience that exposes a potential issue with these drives that FAIL to live up to customer expectations and advertised performance after using the drives.

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Commodities

Friday, November 26, 2021

SILVER Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SILVER Price Trend Analysis

Silver trend over the past 2 years shows a market that has repeated FAILED to break higher, despite going so far as breaching $30 early 2021. However all attempts have resolved towards the bottom of the trading range at $22 where I deemed that the most recent down trend off of a lower high of $29 was probably going to see Silver break below $22 which would target a trend to support zone of $18-$19, a break that has now come to pass.

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InvestorEducation

Friday, November 26, 2021

Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market Conclusion

Stock market correction so far has been fairly mild with the tech stocks not reaching levels to offer enough of a discount to justify exposure to in the face of the coming inflation storm. Whilst October is not done with yet i.e. we could yet see a final leg down, especially given the potential for earnings surprises form the tech giants due over the next 10 days.. However with each passing day such an outcome diminishes, thus the stock market appears to be gearing up for another run to new all time highs which given the mild correction so far suggests that the Dow could trade nearer to 40k, than 37k by the end of this year.

However, my outlook for 2022 sees worsening conditions that will see transitory inflation become permanent, so there is going to come a time when investors will do the math of what high inflation means for future corporate earnings, i.e. lower earnings due to rising costs and less disposable incomes. Hence it remains highly probable that most stocks will trade to below their October 2021 lows during 2022.

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