Monday, September 14, 2015
Gold and Silver Sector Very Low Risk Trading Setup at Possible Sector Bottom... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
It looks like we are really going to see some fireworks late this coming week, right after the Fed make their much anticipated announcement about whether or not they will raise interest rates. They had better get on with it and do their miniscule rate rise this time, because if they don't and start making bleating noises again about doing it at some point in the future, their already tenuous credibility will vanish. There is a fair chance that they will do it, because although they would like to keep the stockmarket elevated, they will quite happily sacrifice the stockmarket to save what to them is much more important - the dollar and the Treasury market. If they do announce the rate rise it is thought likely that the stockmarket will tank, because the Fed has never done a single rate rise, it has always run a cycle of rate rises, and the psychological impact of the 1st rate rise for 9 years will therefore be big, especially because they have used the prospect of this rate rise for a long time to goad the market into driving the dollar higher and higher, like a donkey following a carrot on a string, to the great cost of emerging markets.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast for September to December 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 15% drop in average stock prices during the past month has galvanised a growing number of bears to once more dig out ancient text book reasons for why this is the time for the stocks bear market to finally begin, and not only that but keep making definitive statements for the expectations for market crash's that always fail to materialise for the obvious reason that a crash is a panic event that can only at best be discerned no earlier than during the preceding day. Even then the probability would favour the market ending higher on the so called crash day because market crashes are NOT common events.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Why Are Stocks Going Berserk? It’s All About Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Mike_Whitney
If you’ve been following the markets for the last three weeks, you’ve probably figured out that something is wrong. The markets are no longer behaving the way they should, and that has people worried. Very worried. In the last 15 trading days, the Dow Jones has experienced an unprecedented 13 triple-digit days, which means that stocks have been sharply rising and falling without any rhyme or reason. The financial media has tried to explain-away the extreme volatility by pointing to slower growth in China, troubles in the Emerging Markets or various dismal data-points. But none of these adequately explain what’s going on.
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Sunday, September 13, 2015
How the Fed Is Hurting U.S. Manufacturing / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: Whether he deserves it or not, Obama is getting kudos on his handling of the economy, particularly the declining unemployment rate. In August, the official headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. But that same jobs data out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) contained some sobering news: Manufacturing payrolls are getting shredded.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.
We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.
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Sunday, September 13, 2015
The Disappearing Middle Class / Politics / Social Issues
By: DailyWealth
Sunday, September 13, 2015
How to Prevent Costly Losses During Big Market Panics / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
By: DailyWealth
Sunday, September 13, 2015
FED Induced Sharp Drop in Stock Market Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The planets are coming together for the perfect storm on September 17th. First we have Mercury Retrograde, which often occurs at a top for the precious metals sector (and even the stock market). Then we have Jupiter opposing Neptune while Saturn enters into the sign of Sagittarius. Exaggerated hysteria or panic would be the best way to explain this astrological set up. My best guess is: the FED won't raise rates this time, but will hint strongly for the need to do so very soon (China may have nipped a September hike in the bud by devaluing the yuan). Everyone is expecting a retest of the August 24-25 lows anyway, so this is the perfect excuse to take it down. It also fits the pattern of an X wave of [B] bottom within an IMP (Irregular Megaphone Pattern -- discussed a few weeks ago). The big question is: will we fall just below the SPX cash price of 1867 near 1850 or below the SPY or S&P 500 futures price set the morning of August 24, 2015?
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Coffee Commodity Price Downtrend Continues / Commodities / Coffee
By: Austin_Galt
The coffee price is now down in an area with potential for a low to be put in. However, until there are signs of price turning back up more downside has to be favoured.
Let's revise the weekly and monthly charts.
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
Stock Market Primary IV Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The holiday shortened week started at SPX 1921. After a Tuesday morning, and Wednesday morning, gap up opening the SPX hit 1989. The market then declined to SPX 1937 by Thursday morning. Then the market rallied again to end the week at SPX 1961. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.05%, the NDX/NAZ were +2.15%, and the DJ World index was +2.05%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: the WLEI, export/import prices, wholesale inventories, consumer sentiment and long term investor sentiment. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC, Industrial production, and Options expiration.
Saturday, September 12, 2015
Waiting On The Fed... What The Stock Market Likely Wants... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
The market seems to have found some stability after the big push lower that saw the market flash crash one day, and even though it recovered some, it saw some real technical damage, once the heavy selling episode was over. We moved from one long-term base into a new base that's actually larger than the one that saw us go nowhere for eight months.
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
Why the Japanese Yen's Bull Run REALLY Ended / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
Monetary "Yentervention" did not cause the currency's depreciation -- it only COINCIDED with it
Talk about "star" wars.
"Asia's biggest action star" Donnie Yen was just cast in the next installment of the never-ending Star Wars movie franchise. Mr. Yen, in case you aren't aware, is known as "the strongest man in the entire universe." (Huffington Post)
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
What Really Mattered at Apple Corps Big Event / Companies / Apple
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Michael A. Robinson writes: After 30-plus years in Silicon Valley, I’ve developed a thick skin.
I need it to keep myself immune from the daily barrage of useless hype that comes out of the Valley’s publicity mills every day.
That’s why I don’t fill your inbox with breathless reports every time Elon Musk burps.
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
The US Has Already Tightened — Which Explains A Lot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
Next week we’ll find out if the longest-ever will-they-or-won’t-they drama involving a virtually insignificant quarter-point interest rate change will amount to anything. But either way, US monetary policy is already a lot tighter than it was a year ago.
The Fed’s balance sheet, for instance, is a measure of how much new currency it is pumping into the banking system. And it’s up only $79 billion, or 1.8%, in the past year. In real terms, that’s flat to slightly negative.
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
Lumber Looking Lousy / Commodities / Lumber
By: Austin_Galt
Lumber is looking pretty lousy at the moment hitting new yearly lows recently. Price has been trading as laid it in previous analysis so let's update the situation using the monthly and weekly charts.
Friday, September 11, 2015
China's Market Meltdown: Dangers and Opportunities / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
The buzz around Mauldin Economics’ virtual water cooler these days is El Jefe’s new documentary, China on the Edge. The timing for the online release, September 23, is propitious given the media attention to the meltdown of the Chinese market. The list of participants is impressive, and John has spent considerable time over the last few years wrapping his brain around the staggering number of variables at play in the People’s Republic of China.
Friday, September 11, 2015
QE Forever Continues Unabated / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Sol_Palha
It is a fraud to borrow what we are unable to pay. Publilius SyrusCorporations are using share buyback programs to manipulate earnings, by reducing the float of outstanding shares. This ploy was not as ubiquitous before, but today it is being used rather indiscriminately by companies as a way to boost EPS. This modern form of alchemy turns would-be losses into profits or can be utilized to make modest profits appear to be impressive in nature. We are now in the paradigm of lies and deceit. In these conditions, the truth does not thrive.
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Friday, September 11, 2015
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
In the previous post Steve Saville talks about the “true” fundamentals of gold, i.e. the ones that actually matter as opposed to the ones that make a good story. In this post, let’s review something that is related but different; gold mining fundamentals.
While we (NFTRH) have been noting gold’s negative fundamentals for years (especially the status of the yield curve and a thus far ironclad confidence in the Federal Reserve and indeed, relative confidence in global central banks), gold mining sector fundamentals have been on an up-swing. Gold’s fundamentals are generally what we have been calling macro fundamentals and the things that matter to mining operations are sector fundamentals.
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Friday, September 11, 2015
Silver’s Vexing Slumber / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Silver has had a rough year, slumping to major new secular lows. After sliding on balance for years now, even the diehard silver bulls are losing faith in their metal. But despite its vexing slumber, silver’s price-appreciation potential from today’s levels remains enormous. Between radical underinvestment and very-high speculator silver-futures shorting, silver is poised to see massive buying as gold recovers.
Silver has proven very disappointing in 2015. Late last year, it was battered down near $15.50 as gold plunged into the $1140s on extreme futures shorting. That looked to be a decisive low, as silver spent the next 8 months forming a strong technical base around $16. But unfortunately in early July, silver fell to new lows near $15 as gold was crushed by an epic futures-shorting attack. Silver was collateral damage.
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Friday, September 11, 2015
Pay Your Fair Share (to the Teachers’ Union) / Stock-Markets / Pensions & Retirement
By: Casey_Research
By Justin Spittler
Taxpayers take note…you could get a much bigger tax bill than you expect.
The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) recently announced that it may move 12% of its assets, or $20 billion, out of stocks and bonds.
CalSTRS is the second-largest public pension fund in the U.S. It manages roughly $191 billion for 868,000 teachers in California.
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