Thursday, September 17, 2015

Trading 101: Position Sizing / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: John_Mauldin

This is going to be the last of the trading lessons for a while. I don’t want to turn this into a trading blog, and there are important macro things to talk about (especially next week).

Here’s an imaginary scenario: someone tips you that an acquisition is going to happen. Of course, that would be insider trading, which is illegal—but let’s pretend for the purpose of this exercise that insider trading were legal.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Great Financial Crisis 2nd Leg - The Chinese Emperor Has No Clothes / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Brian_Bloom

The first chart below may be signalling a very significant technical development from the perspective of global investor confidence.

The lower low in the On Balance Volume (OBV) chart is not yet significant in terms of extent; nevertheless, its significance lies in the fact that it is pointing to the “potential”  emergence of a wave of selling pressure in the equity market of a country that has clearly been cooking its economic books (see evidence below).

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Stock Market Fed Decision Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

A colleague, Gary, called me yesterday to comment that this formation might have a better fit as a Flag or Pennant formation instead of a Triangle. A glance at the two-hour chart shows an upward tilt that would agree with that assessment. The Wave Structure also fits, whether a Minor Wave 4 or an Intermediate Wave (B), which is the alternate view.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

What Today’s Fed Decision Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: After nine years of historically low interest rates, the Fed is finally getting ready to remove the proverbial punchbowl from the easy-money party.

As it stands, Yellen & Company are only contemplating a mere 25 basis rate hike and even that now seems unlikely.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the Fed Funds futures contracts are pricing in a below 25% chance of a rate hike later this afternoon.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Stock Market Optimism Ahead Of Fed's Interest Rate Decision Release / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Gold Price Up Before Fed Interest Rate Decision - Myth Of All Powerful Central Banker Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Gold rose 1.3% yesterday ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement today. Markets remain divided and uncertain whether the Fed will increase rates by 25 basis points today (1900 GMT).

The Fed last raised interest rates in June 2006, by 25 basis points to 5.25%, shortly after that America’s central bank found itself reducing rates and since December 2008 the Fed’s benchmark interest rate has been set between 0.0% and 0.25%. Gold prices rose in the months after the interest rise and were 23% higher in 2006.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

The Talk of US Stock Market Crash Does Not Make Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Submissions

Nicholas Kitonyi writes: Over the last few weeks, there has been a lot of talk of a possible US market crash. This comes following a substantial decline across all the major US Indices and their associated ETFs which saw them drop by 6%-9% between late August and early September.

However, we have already witnessed significant resurgence in US markets over the last few days, which suggests that investors still remain optimistic.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Don't Buy the Fed's New "Bribe-a-Bank" Interest Rate Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Lee Adler writes: After seven long, strange years, we're now looking at the end of ZIRP as we know it.

And good riddance, too. It's been a disaster for the U.S. economy, the middle class, the housing market – just about every facet of American economic life has suffered from this fiscal disaster masquerading as coherent monetary policy.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

U.S. Fed Must Avoid Bank of Japan Errors / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

No, the US is not Japan and the Federal Reserve is not the Bank of Japan. But when we assess the implications of what could be the first Fed rate after 7 years of zero interest rate policy in the US, there's no better reference than the BoJ.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

The Shale Oil Delusion: Why The Party's Over For U.S. Tight Oil / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

The party is over for tight oil.

Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies.

Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Stock Market Short Interest Off The Charts...Fed On Deck.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

A new report came out this morning showing trader-short interest is at an all-time high. Nothing like fear to create a more bullish environment. The short interest here is at a greater level than at any time during the 2000-bear market or the 2009-bear market That's almost impossible to believe, but that's what the numbers are showing. Most folks know the rule of this crazy game with regards to following the herd. Never do it! If the masses get too bullish it's probably not a bad idea to start removing most of your long holdings. No different than when things get far too bearish. Right now the trading world is far too bearish, which tells me that over time it's more likely, though no guarantee, that we'll get through S&P 500 1993 before losing S&P 500 1867. Taking out 1993 would negate the bearish-bear flag pattern, and set things up more balanced between the two sides. Then it would be more about sentiment.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Syria's Economy Not Shaken by ISIS / Economics / Syria

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The fog of war has removed any sense of certainty regarding developments on the Syrian battlefield. That said, we know that ISIS has captured several towns, and that waves of Syrian refugees are disembarking upon Europe's shores. But, the picture remains chaotic and hazy.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Refugee Crisis is a Far Bigger Risk to Your Money than the Fed or China / Stock-Markets / Refugee Crisis

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Today we’re going to talk about the 800 pound gorilla in the room. No politician will touch it and no citizen wants to acknowledge it in an era where political correctness has run amok.

But we have to.

“It” is Europe’s desperate refugee crisis, and “it” is by far the single biggest threat to your money today. You’re not hearing about this at the moment but you will in the months ahead.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Gold Price Bottom - 90% Of Traders Are Always Wrong At Major Turns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Savage

For about the last year and a half I’ve been warning that gold was being driven down to test the last C-wave top ($1033). No one believed me.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Should You Actually Worry About Gold Confiscation? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MoneyMetals

Guy Christopher writes: Most gold owners are familiar with worries of forced government gold confiscation - that one day black-ops shock teams will toss homes to find that stash of coins and bars.

The sole historical source for the modern fear of "confiscation" was President Franklin Roosevelt's 1933 Executive Order 6102 telling America to cough up its gold in the midst of The Great Depression.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Jim Rogers on Timeless Investing Strategies You Can Use to Profit Today / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: Casey_Research

By Nick Giambruno

Recently I spoke with Jim Rogers about the most important investment lessons he has learned over the years.

Jim is a legendary investor and true international man. He’s always ahead of the game. Jim made a bundle by investing in commodities in the 1990s when they were out of favor with Wall Street. He’s also made large profits investing in crisis markets.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Stock Market Sectors, Does Anyone Win With an Interest Rate Hike? / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: Investment_U

Matthew Carr writes: Editorial Note: It’s the big moment investors have been waiting for. As we write, the Fed is meeting to decide if it will raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. And while there won’t be any official announcement until Thursday, folks are understandably on edge. But should you be?

We asked Matthew Carr to do what he does best - to sift through decades of market data and uncover the real effect of rate hikes on stocks. We hope you enjoy his commentary. And afterward, if you’re still worried, click here to see how our Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green is preparing Oxford Club Members for the end of the bull market.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

The Fallacy of "Buy Land — They’re Not Making Any More" / Housing-Market / Land

By: MISES

Peter St. Onge writes: “Buy land — they’re not making any more!” is an old investing chestnut, and a common sense one to boot. Economically, it’s also completely false.

As counterintuitive as it may seem, we make land all the time. It just doesn’t look like land.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Lowdown on U.S. Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

Will she raise or will she not? As financial markets focus on whether we will see a Fed rate hike this week, investors may be in for a rude awakening.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Petrobras - Bad News Continues For This State-Owned Giant / Companies / Oil Companies

By: DailyWealth

Today's chart shows that one of our most important warnings is ringing true again: Avoid long-term investments in government-owned companies.

Over the last few years, we've written several times about why investing with the government as your partner is a bad idea... especially in government-owned companies headquartered in foreign countries with traditions of fiscal mismanagement. Politicians are great at spending money and pandering to mobs... but they're terrible at running projects for profit.