Thursday, June 23, 2016
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The EU Referendum according to the opinion polls is too close to call as illustrated by the most recent opinion polls and resulting momentum analysis that literally puts the vote on a knife edge. However the same does not hold true for the bookmakers or financial markets that are apparently assuming that a REMAIN outcome is a done deal which is set against my forecast conclusion for Brexit, from someone who correctly called both the 2015 General Election that the pollsters got so badly wrong and the 2014 Scottish referendum.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Latest opinion polls taken today (22nd of June) both put LEAVE marginally ahead of REMAIN, TNS (online) 43% LEAVE against 41% for REMAIN and Opinium (online) 45% LEAVE against 44% for REMAIN. Which illustrates that whilst leave as the advantage nevertheless given the margin of error then both camps are virtually neck and neck, literally balanced on a knife edge going into voting day that compares against the dramatic shifts in the poll leads of the past 10 days.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
These Conditions Ensure That Gold Stocks Will Continue To Rise Over The Coming Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Hubert_Moolman
Gold stocks need very specific conditions in order to perform well. The last time most of these conditions were present was during the Great Depression. However, conditions are currently shaping up to be even more ideal.
The performance of the Dow is one example of conditions that heavily influences how gold stocks fair.
Historically, gold stocks had some of the best rallies after significant Dow peaks. This was true for the 1929 and 1973 major Dow peaks.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_Swanson
I am bullish on gold and I own gold and mining stocks, because gold is in a bull market.
I have been trying to do my best to tell people this, but many people simply do not believe it.
Gold and the mining stocks went through a very brutal bear market for five years and that makes it hard for people to believe that any of the rallies are real. What is more there are several “experts” that keep calling for gold to fall to $1,000 or even $250 an ounce that are scaring people out of gold.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Gold Falls Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold fell again today to its lowest in a week despite continuing uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit referendum. This is contributing to very significant high net worth and institutional demand in recent days, particularly in the UK, which is leading to “panic” and “supply issues” in the interbank gold market.
Supply issues which respected gold analysts and ourselves have warned in recent years were taking place, would deepen and would ultimately lead to a reset of gold prices to much higher levels.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Gold and its 200 Week Moving Average / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
I think we can safely assume the Brexit vote is going to fail. This should be bullish for stocks and bearish for the dollar. A falling dollar should be good for gold. However, with stocks and oil moving higher it’s likely to take some focus off gold.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Will Brexit Be Used as Scapegoat for Global Financial Reset? - Video / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Mario_Innecco
hi minako 64 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views
so we've got one day to go to the EU referendum here in the UK or Brax it as
it's more colloquially known and i usually don't buy the newspapers but I
went down to the shop around near my house and i bought the Sun today which
is the biggest tabloid newspaper in the UK and as you can see it says what Queen
asked dinner guests give me three good reasons to stay in Europe
so apparently the Queen has been asking doing the guests that question and they
the press has contacted buckingham palace for you know an explanation and
they've they not confirmed it nor denied and they said we don't comment on the.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt / Companies / Credit Cards & Scoring
By: John_Mauldin
BY TONY SAGAMI
Politicians and central bankers throw the word “trillion” around as if it were chump change, but a trillion dollars is a huge mountain of money.
A trillion is equal to a thousand billions (1,000 x 1,000,000,000).
1,000 = one thousand
1,000,000 = one million
1,000,000,000 = one billion
1,000,000,000,000 = one trillion
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse / ElectionOracle / Climate Change
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Latest opinion poll by YouGov puts REMAIN marginally ahead on 45% against LEAVE on 44%, which illustrates that both LEAVE and REMAIN camps are virtually neck and neck, literally balanced on a knife edge going into voting day that compares against the dramatic shifts in the polls of the past 10 days.
The opinion polls momentum chart clearly shows a trend since Mid May of LEAVE gaining ground against REMAIN which by the start of June had both virtually neck and neck into the 13th of June when LEAVE started to pull strongly away from REMAIN, right up until last Thursdays horrific event that literally resulted in momentum being put into reverse gear for LEAVE that led to REMAIN taking a marginal polls lead that it continues to maintain though without momentum to carry the marginal lead any further.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. The premise was you could get out of the army if you were crazy but you weren’t crazy to try to get out of the army. So this avenue to escape the war didn’t work for the book’s main character John Yossarian. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. With WTI back above $50 a barrel – at least briefly last week – North American LTO developers are putting rigs, service equipment and personnel back to work. The so-called “fraclog” or “DUC” inventory (wells drilled but uncompleted) is being reduced. While this is good it is also thought by some to be temporary.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Stock Market Just Before the BrExit Vote / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Donald_W_Dony
Though the conversation surrounding the outcome of the EU referendum continues to heat-up, during the last 36 hours, the market has already decided on which side is going to win.
Two key defensive elements, in particular, are pulling back as the final count down unfolds.
The Volatility Index or VIX, after a brief surge in early June, has backed-off and dropped into a more moderate risk level.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Stock Market on Verge of Melt Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
July 5th keeps coming back as an important cycle low for the stock market. The recent daily Bollinger Bands on the SPX shows increasing constriction, which in the past pointed to a possible melt down, similar to what we saw from August 18-24, 2015. This time around we have the same 115 TD’s from January 20, 2016 to July 5th that we had from March 11, 2015 to August 24, 2015. July 5th is also an important Bradley turn on a new moon. Another similar Bradley turn occurs on another new moon November 29, 2016, which I believe will likely be another important low this year.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? / Commodities / Copper
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst and newsletter writer Clive Maund explores the link between an anticipated copper rally and an upswing in Chinese markets.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
SPX May Break Its Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has been climbing the Bearish Flag trendline. It may be broken at 2088.00 should SPX continue its decline today.
It may take another day to decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average. It may accelerate if today’s polls show Brexit gaining strength.
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Stock Market Hybrid Lindsay Low: June 27-July 1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
After last week’s failed call for a “relief rally” it becomes harder to accept bullish signals as seen in the McClellan Oscillator this week. There is the possibility of a micro-cycle high on/near Tuesday which gives the possibility of a 1-2 day rally but the next micro-cycle low is due June 29 which matches the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a low near then which is outlined below.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression / Politics / Social Issues
By: Harry_Dent
We all know the situation in the markets is dire.
Like, really, everyone knows.
There’s an old phrase from Margaret Thatcher’s day (and mine, I suppose) that has recently come back into use: There is no alternative.
There’s even an acronym: TINA.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Gold Falls As UK Gold Demand “Rockets” – Investors “Seek Stability” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold fell again today despite very robust physical demand in western markets and especially the UK. Gold fell to a ten-day low as the recent global share rally showed signs of exhaustion.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Says China’s Economic Outlook Is Bright / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Trade surplus, income from services help counter mounting debt
Tycoon was criticised by Chinese state media last year
Hong Kong’s richest man said China’s economic outlook is bright in the long term, casting a vote of confidence in a country that’s growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Hong Kong’s Richest Man Warns Against Brexit as Vote Looms / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum
By: Bloomberg
As one of the U.K.’s largest investors, Li has much at stake
U.K. accounts for 37 percent of profit at Li’s main company
Hong Kong’s richest man stepped up his calls for Britons to vote in favor of staying in the European Union as the world braces for the outcome of this week’s vote.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
$GOLD vs. Brexit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
I see traders everywhere worrying about how the Brexit vote will effect gold. Folks, forget about the Brexit. By this time next week the Brexit will already be fading into memory and the market will go back to doing what it was doing before the vote.
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