Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 27, 2008
United States Heading for Nasty Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bill King (The King Report): Adjusted monetary base surging “The following chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base, as calculated by the St. Louis Fed, needs no commentary. But we must note that it is growing at a 341% annualized rate (of 4-week average). This is beyond 3rd world pumping! Yesterday in testimony before Congress about the financial crisis, Easy Al reluctantly gave a qualified confession about his role in the mess when he said he was ‘partially' wrong on derivative regulation. But Easy Al tried to direct blame at Wall Street.”
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Sunday, October 26, 2008
Contraction of the Whole Financial and Economic System / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
"The great inter-war slumps were not acts of God or of blind forces. They were the sure and certain result of the concentration of too much economic power in the hands of too few men (who) felt no responsibility to the nation." From the 1945 UK Labour manifesto Let Us Face The Future
There are signs that the credit crunch is easing. Interbank lending in dollars has fallen for a ninth straight day. The various indicators of stress in the market--Libor, the TED spread, and the Libor-OIS spread--are all gradually returning to normal, but the damage to the broader economy has been substantial.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Financial Crisis Turning Into an Economic Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Christopher_Laird
With all of the chaos in financial markets, and also commodities, how are the USD and the Euro affected and also the precious metals?
Well, first of all, we need the proper context of this world market situation. We are in the middle of a super world crash. These take a year to get into full swing. They develop over time. Minding that, realize that we may not see the worst for another year for the world stock markets. We are in the midst of a crash.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Upping the Economic Stimulus Dosage / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Insanity is often defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different result. Recent Congressional activity to push through this year's second economic “stimulus” package certainly indicates that many of our political leaders may have special needs. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Unfunded Debt Liabilities- The Greatest Deficit of All / Economics / US Debt
By: Doug_Wakefield
The following is an interview transcript from institutional money manager Tom Cammack conducted by Doug Wakefield, President of Best Minds Inc., on October 6th , 2008 . The opinions shared in this interview may or may not be the same as those of Best Minds Inc .
“We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy [thrift] and liberty or profusion [abundance] and servitude .
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Mesa City Arizona Facing Huge Budget Crisis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
AZCentral is reporting Mesa facing huge budget crisis .Mesa is bracing for what could be the worst budget crisis in city history.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
FTSE Crash as UK Economy Contracts by GDP 0.5% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 Index crashed on the worse than expected UK Q3 GDP data that came in at minus 0.5%, the consensus forecast was for 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast was for a 0.3% contraction of Gross Domestic Product.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Jobs Losses Mount As Recession Deepens / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Regardless of how much money Paulson and Bernanke waste on bailouts, this economy simply is not going to recover with the unemployment picture looking as bleak as it does. Let's start off with a look at initial claims then some announcements from today about layoffs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
UK Economic Crash Follows Housing, Stocks and Sterling Over the Cliff / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Friday's long awaited GDP figures are expected to show an estimated GDP contraction of 0.3% for the quarter ending 30th Sept 2008. This follows the official data of zero growth for the 2nd quarter and will officially bring to an end Gordon Brown's near repetitive day in day out mantra chanted at the despatch box in his role as the chancellor of the exchequer for 9 years of having ended the boom and bust cycle. In actual fact all Gordon Brown had succeeded in delivering was a greater boom to be followed by an even more devastating bust. The key point to watch for on Friday is will a revision lower of quarter 2 GDP growth push the UK into a technical recession on the basis of 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Using Leading Economic Indicators to Forecast Economic Recessions / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On a year-over-year basis, the quarterly average of the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) began contracting in the first quarter of 2007. With the exception of the third quarter of 2007, the quarterly average of the LEI has continued to contract. We alerted our readers that multiple consecutive quarters of year-over-year contractions in the LEI usually were the harbinger of recessions. We had ignored the history of the LEI's recession-predictive powers in the past and were determined not to repeat that mistake. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Chinese Perspective on the Global Economic Recession / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: You've probably never heard of the Canton Fair, but it is the largest trade fair in the world, where thousands of manufacturers, businessmen, and merchants gather to conduct business.
The Canton Fair is co-hosted by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China and the People's Government of Guangdong Province, and organized by the China Foreign Trade Centre.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Economic Recession Forecasting "V" or "U" Shaped? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Years ago there was an equity strategist at Bache-Halsey (I said it was years ago) who almost always got it wrong. When he finally was forced to leave "to pursue other interests," clients were furious. The guy was a near-perfect negative indicator. When he said buy, it usually paid off to sell.
You know where this is going. A certain "economist" is forecasting a "V"-shaped economic and stock-market recovery based on a forecast of a "V"-shaped recovery in monetary velocity.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Looming Recession Could have been a Lot Worse / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. economy is entering a recession. With each day that passes and each indicator we see, that eventuality becomes more and more clear.
Even so, we can take some real comfort in knowing that we're likely going to avoid the “bottomless pit” of a Great Depression II. A substantial recession with accompanying inflation – roughly along the lines of the downturns of 1974 and 1980-82 – seems the most likely scenario we face.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Fed Attempting To Prevent "Great Depression II" / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke and the Fed have to be miffed over their lack of traction in addressing the credit bubble. Of course if Bernanke understood simple economics as explained in Impossible To Get Something For Nothing , he would not be doing the silly things he is doing such as running out of letters in his alphabet soup of lending facilities.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The U.S. FED: What! Me Worry? / Economics / Money Supply
By: David_Haas
From time-to-time, I like to swing by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRBSL) website to check on their “aggregate” monetary and financial indicators and measure the pulse of our nation's economic base - which is the overall supply of money and credit in the United States economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Financial Markets and Economic Events Day Ahead: October 22, 2008 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Day In Review: US Fed creates $540bln new facility to relieve pressure on money market mutual funds caused by redemption requests.
Weak earnings at bellwethers Caterpillar and DuPont, as well as, Texas Instruments and Sun Microsystems were the primary catalyst for a negative day in equities
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Paradox of Deleveraging Vs Something for Nothing Economics / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Earlier today, in Keynesian Claptrap From PIMCO I spoke of the ridiculousness of the paradox of thrift . Here two more articles worth your time reading that rebut the seemingly never ending Keynesian Claptrap coming from the likes of Bernanke, Paulson, PIMCO, Roubini, and Krugman. I make the above statement with one reservation. Nouriel Roubini has called this economic disaster as well as anyone. I commend him for many brilliant calls. However I simply cannot sit back and say nothing about the barrage of bad economic thinking in regards to the solution to this crisis coming from everyone in the group above.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Capital and Liquidity Injections Results in Modest Credit Market Improvement / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Credit and Money Supply Indicators: The injection of capital and elimination of caps on swap lines between foreign central banks and the Fed have engineered modest improvement in credit indictors over the past week.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The United States, Europe and Bretton Woods II to Avoid Economic Depression / Economics / Global Financial System
By: STRATFOR
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. President George W. Bush met Oct. 18 to discuss the possibility of a global financial summit. The meeting ended with an American offer to host a global summit in December modeled on the 1944 Bretton Woods system that founded the modern economic system. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 20, 2008
The End of Friedmanite Economics / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Mike_Whitney
Monday last week, the stock market recorded its biggest one day gain in history on news that the G-7 had settled on a plan to recapitalize the banking system. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) all agreed to make direct capital injections into "systemically important" banks so they could resume lending and reduce stress in the credit markets. They also decided to insure deposits and to guarantee interbank lending. Do you think that these unprecedented steps will be enough to avert a meltdown of the financial system?Read full article... Read full article...