Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Non-Farm Payroll Jobs Contract for 9th Consecutive Month / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
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Thursday, October 02, 2008
US Employment Picture: September Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling period should send the headline estimate of job losses above the recent trend. The risk for the report is to the downside and we do expect that the rate of job destruction will increase in the coming months. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
US Economic Data and Events for September 30, 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
* The failure of the TARP on the floor of the House of Representatives has moved action towards overnight trading in Asia and early morning action in Europe. With the credit markets currently jammed up, volatility should be expected to shape the overnight action and the direction of US markets in early morning trading Tuesday.
• News flow will provide direction for the markets as Congress dithers over what action to take to stem the tide of the growing crisis. It does appear that the plan in its current form, or in another, will not be resubmitted to House until Thursday at the earliest.
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Tuesday, September 30, 2008
What's Next After the Bailout Plan? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
This article was written just prior to the announcement of the rejection of the bailout bill but has been qualified to reflect current conditions. Celebrate today's victory! It is a victory for all of us, whether we know it or not. Much thanks to Ron Paul and all the brave souls both Republican and Democrat who withstood their party's commands and instead sided with us, the people of the United States of America ! Darryl Robert Schoon
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Monday, September 29, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 29-3rd Oct) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 29-October 3 will see very important data that will provide information on the condition of the consumer and the labor sector. The major data risk for the week will occur with the Monday release of the August personal and income statement and the Friday publication of the September estimate of non-farm payrolls. We look for modest declines in real spending and a loss of -105K payrolls with the unemployment rate increasing to 6.2%. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 26, 2008
Horrid US Economic Data on Housing Market, Jobs and Durable Goods / Economics / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are looking at weekly unemployment claims . In the week ending Sept. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 493,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 461,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 50,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 462,500, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 446,500. The spin above blames hurricanes. I do not buy it, at least to the extent claimed. The fact of the matter is this economy is rapidly falling apart.
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Friday, September 26, 2008
US Budgetary Consequences Of The Financial Crisis Bailouts / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The consequences of the troubled asset relief program (TARP) will be felt for a number of years. The death of the investment-banking model, the transformation of the domestic system of finance and the coming wave of regulation of what is left of Wall Street will have far-reaching consequences. This, however, will take much time to absorb and assess. What is of immediate concern, is how the proposed $700 billion TARP will impact the budget outlook for fiscal year 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Euro-zone Economy Sinking Fast Towards Recession / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
A month ago, two of our favorite leading indicators for the Euro-zone economy were pointing to a slowdown but not an outright stop, and we were still hopeful that signs of recovery could be cropping up by the end of this year. One month on, the outlook has deteriorated.
Germany's Ifo business climate index for September - a poll of around 7,000 firms - deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, coming in at 92.9 (94.8 in August). The gauge of current conditions dropped to 99.8 (103.2 in August) and the expectations index slipped to 86.5 (from 87.0), its lowest level in 15 years. The overall index is still above the lows recorded in late 2002, the last time Germany was headed into recession.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Bernanke, Paulson and the US Government Following Eggertsson Buy High Policy / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mick_Phoenix
An Occasional Letter From The Collection Agency - It is time for a short update to the series of artices that started with The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve And US Govt Are Known
Many people have been wondering what the cost of all this intervention may be. I firmly believe that Bernanke, Paulson and the US Government are following the ideas laid out in Eggertsson's work "An interpretation of The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible".
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008
What Next For the Real Economy? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Kurt_Kasun
The Economist Magazine posed this question on the cover of this week's magazine with an illustration of the various pieces of Wall Street machinery being sucked into the vortex of a tornado. The market appears to have stabilized which was the intent of Secretary Paulson in the unprecedented actions he took last week. What comes next for the bailout plan are more goodies from Congress. Why stop at $1 trillion? What comes next for the real economy is going to be the aftermath of this Pyrrhic victory the Fed, SEC, and Treasury jointly scored last week in preventing financial Armageddon. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 22-26) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 22-26 will see a modest week of US macro data. However, given the dislocation in the markets, the upcoming week will provide a test to see if recent steps taken by global central banks and the immanent mergers of large financial's can inject a measure of confidence and stability into markets. The major data releases for the week will be the publication of the existing homes sales and new home sales data for August on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The durable goods report will be released on Wednesday and the weekly jobless claims report will be published on Thursday. The week will conclude with the final estimate of Q2'08 GDP and the consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 19, 2008
Potential Economic Fallout From Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The events of the past seven days have altered the shape of the market and will impact the economy going forward. The current financial crisis reflects the failure of firms to deleverage in an acceptable period of time. The inability or unwillingness to accept the terms of re-capitalization offered troubled institutions has set in motion the financial train wreck of which we all bear witness. While growth over the past year has exceeded the very low expectations set by the market, the risk to economic output over the remainder of the year is to the downside. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 19, 2008
United States Economy Stares Into the Abyss- Debt, Velocity of Money and Ethics / Economics / US Debt
By: Brian_Bloom
The idea that the US Government can “bail out” those whose financial failure seems likely to trigger an implosion of the derivatives market needs to be seen in light of two factors:
• Debt. Historically, as debt levels have grown, this has given rise to inflation.
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Thursday, September 18, 2008
UK Retail Sales Rise 1.2%, Real Retail Sales Fall 1.3% / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting a 1.2% rise in August 2008, up 3.4% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly concentrates on explaining why retail sales rose, I refer readers to the below two graphs, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the wild month to month gyrations of official data that literally switch between boom and bust statistics on a monthly basis.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Frozen Capital Markets and Stock Holder Capital Destruction / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mick_Phoenix
Recap of the scenario: bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.......Deflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Is the United States In Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
At every FOMC meeting this year at least one voting member has dissented from the majority. The dissenter or dissenters either objected to the federal funds interest rate reductions implemented earlier in the year or wanted to increase the interest rate when the majority voted to keep the rate unchanged. The major reason for these FOMC dissents was a belief that Fed policy was too accommodative and, thus, would fan the flames of consumer price inflation. On the eve of the September 16 FOMC meeting, we believe that it is time for these FOMC hawks to “eat crow.”Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
UK CPI inflation Soars to 4.7%, Paralysis at the Bank of England / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation hit 4.7%, soaring onwards and upwards towards 5%, which triggers another letter from the Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King explaining why he has again failed in the BOE's primary objective of controlling inflation to below 3%. Inflation has been driven higher by food and energy costs that despite crude oil and natural gas price falls has seen clear profiteering amongst energy and gas supply companies lifting consumer energy prices by over 30% in recent weeks which and contrary to the industries propaganda machine is not reflected in the forward gas market prices for winter 2008, therefore triggering a potential windfall tax of at least £1 billion which could be announced at the Labour party conference this week. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
The REFLATION Dam Has Burst! Monetary Flooding Anticipated… / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Ty_Andros
Oh what a two weeks it has been. It is a CHALLENGING task to figure out the latest FINANCIAL and Geopolitical curveballs that need to be interpreted. The activity in the last two weeks is EXACTLY why the “Crack Up Boom” series has continued. They stepped over the line with Bear Stearns (they had to) and the next dominoes to fall have done so. As Fannie and Freddie continue on the path to their demise, and that of the US dollar, the money printing now must go into a gear that is feared by the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
United States to Pay the Price of Nationalization / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
Last week, the U.S. government took the unprecedented step of effectively nationalizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Together, the two companies hold or guarantee some $5.2 trillion, or about half, of all American residential mortgages. A substantial portion of this debt is tilting toward default. Given the size of the numbers, American tax payers should be very concerned. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Trade Deficit Myths Busted / Economics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jack Crooks writes: The public is consistently fed doomsday scenarios from sources that absolutely should not be ill-informed, including the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
These guys should be the most informed bunch of all. But many are dead wrong when it comes to the U.S. current account deficit and its doomful impact on the U.S. dollar.
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