Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 13-17) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of October 13-17 will see perhaps the most important week of macroeconomic data and Fed talk of the year. The weekend of Oct 10-12 will see the G-7 meeting in Washington where finance ministers will attempt to formulate a common policy to stem the damage to global financial markets. We expect them to consider guaranteeing all term lending at the meeting. The statements of Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet can be expected to support whatever important decisions are arrived at the G-7 meeting. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Banks to Avoid as Iceland Goes Bankrupt with £10 billion of UK Deposits / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Relations between Britain and the small north atlantic government of Iceland hit a new deep freeze following Britain's implementation of Anti-terror laws to seize the assets of Icelandic financial institutions in Britain following the Icelandic Government's statements that they would not live up to their obligations in recompensing UK depositors.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2008
If You Listen to Economists… You WILL Go Broke / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Stathis
Before I begin, I recommend you bookmark my archive on this site so you can easily find my new posts http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Mike_Stathis.html Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2008
How to Save the U.S. Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Richard_C_Cook
The crashing stock market has given its verdict. The financial rescue plan currently being implemented by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve System will fail to revitalize the producing economy, even with continued interest rate cuts. This is because the banking system is essentially a supply-side, trickle-down mechanism with a currency based on a pyramid of bank lending and debt. All the current plans being suggested by economists and others to save the financial system by varying degrees of tinkering are useless. Similarly useless is the pumping in of credit or liquidity by Treasury or the Federal Reserve because it is no more than new debt to roll over old debt. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Primary Preconditions for Deflation and Economic Depression / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following was adapted from Bob Prechter's New York Times and Amazon best seller, Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression .
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
United States Dragging the World into a Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Whitney
Stocks fell sharply across Europe and Asia last night following another down day on Wall Street where the Dow Jones lost 508 points and the S&P 500 slipped below the 1,000 mark for the first time since 2003. Japan's benchmark index, the Nikkei, lost nearly 10 percent while shares in London at one point slumped more than 7 percent. Trading was suspended in Indonesia and Russia where stocks fell 10 percent each on opening.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Recession Signals: Industrial Production September Decline / Economics / Recession
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
While, the service sector does account for well over 80% of overall economic activity, industrial production often provides a very timely indicator implying the end of the business cycle and the onset of a recession. The pro-cyclical nature of the report provides a well-timed and sensitive indicator of the current rate of growth in overall output. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
America's Financial Apocalypse Economists Need to Sit Down and Shut Up / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Stathis
I'm really sick and tired of these economists out there who continue to claim that America will not enter a depression. These are the same bozos that have yet to acknowledge the fact that the U.S. is in a recession and has been for several months now. In fact, as I have previously mentioned, I can make a very strong case that the U.S. has been in the early stages of a silent, modest depression for at least two years; at the very least a protracted recession masked by credit. After the appropriate adjustments have been made for GDP, the U.S. economy has had no more than 3 to 4 quarters of GDP growth since 2005. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
U.S. Economy Rapidly Sinking Into Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
This is the crisis that will change the course of history. Even before ivory-tower theorists have gotten around to officially calling it a "recession," the U.S. economy is already sinking rapidly into depression.
And even as the government has vowed to embark on a $700 billion spending spree to avert financial panic, over $1 trillion in wealth has been wiped out in just five days of stock and bond market declines.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Iceland Going Bankrupt? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The focus of the financial storm now shifts to the small North Atlantic Island state of Iceland, a country with barely 330,000 inhabitants that saw its banks in recent years expand across Europe as they played and rolled the dice in the global derivatives market, financed on leverage from financial institutions across the globe that were eager to lend on the back of cheap low interest rate carry trade financing which delivered profits for nothing i.e. the difference between the rate borrowed and charged on the interbank market for a near limitless exponentially rising over the counter derivatives bubble that passed $500 trillions, that's trillions NOT billions!Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Financial Crisis Turning into a Real Economic Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Everyone has been acutely focused on Washington — specifically, if and how the financial industry will get bailed out. The Senate voted to approve a revised $700-billion bailout package, one that's packed with all kinds of fresh pork and new tax cuts. And it looks like the House may finally get on board, too.
But the real fireworks aren't in D.C. — they're in the REAL economy. It's looking like a total disaster in the making. Just consider what we learned this week:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 6-10) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of October 6-10 will see a light week of economic data that will be dominated by the Tuesday FOMC minutes from the September 16 meeting and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speech that same day. Other data to be released during the week will be the Wednesday pending home sales report for August and the weekly initial claims data on Thursday. The week will close with the publication of the August trade balance and the September import price estimate. Depending on events over the weekend out of the US Congress and perhaps the Fed, the market conditions may see a bit of volatility during the early part of next week over economic concerns and redemptions in the hedge fund community. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
The Deepening Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: David_Vaughn
We definitely live in interesting times, huh?
I believe future historians will allocate Monday, September 29, 2008 as the start of the second Great Depression. That is not to say we may yet see exciting corrections and even occasionally a stronger US dollar. Still, the ultimate trend is down, down, down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Soaring Unemployment, Brace for Massive Job Losses / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Main Street and Wall Street both better be bracing for layoff because they are coming. I talked about that a bit in Jobs Contract 9th Consecutive Month . Mass Layoffs Rise
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
Bailout Bill Passed, What Happens Next, Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
Congress passed a $700 billion bailout package today. It was a total and complete waste of $700 billion. It further depletes the pool of real funding. Yes, the Fed has started a monetary printing campaign. Yes, the SEC will suspend mark to market accounting. So what happens now?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
How To Protect Your Wealth During This Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Emanuel_Balarie
It is often in the midst of economic despair that wealth is both made...and lost. While history often focuses only on the financial loss that transpires during recessions, it is also important to point out that these types of market environments have also provided individuals with the opportunity to make money.
Consider, for instance, some of the biggest companies we have today. Microsoft was started during the recession of 1975, Hewlett-Packard was born during the Great Depression, Disney was founded during 1923, and GE started during the panic of 1873. The founders of these companies were all able to thrive during times of economic turmoil.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Payrolls Signalling Recession and US Interest Rate Cut / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
September payrolls fell by 159K, worst decline since May 2007, while the unemployment rate held at 6.1%. Although unchanged, the unemployment rate is widely expected to breach above the 6.3% rate in coming months, which would be the highest jobless rate since 1994. Our long held base call of 50-bps easing before year-end is now completely priced in the market, with about 55% chance of the cut emerging before the October 29 meeting. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
Anatomy of Financial and Economic Disaster -Part1 / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Andy_Sutton
For a minute, let's forget about all that has happened in the past year. Forget about the signing of the bailout into law. Let's forget about the failure of some of America 's most iconic Wall Street firms. Let's forget about the insolvency of Fannie, Freddie, and FDIC (yes, they're broke too). Let's forget about Northern Rock, Countrywide, and AIG. They are all but casualties and symptoms. They are not the problem. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Non-Farm Payroll Jobs Contract for 9th Consecutive Month / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 02, 2008
US Employment Picture: September Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling period should send the headline estimate of job losses above the recent trend. The risk for the report is to the downside and we do expect that the rate of job destruction will increase in the coming months. Read full article... Read full article...