Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
UK Inflation CPI Falls Sharply as Economy Heads for Deflation / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation as measured by the CPI slumped by the largest amount since the series began in 1997, falling from 5.2% to 4.5%. This follows hard on the heels of the Bank of England's panic 1.5% interest rate cut earlier in the month which was accompanied by BOE statements that UK economy would contract by 2% GDP during 2009, that puts the UK on target to experience a worse recession than that of the early 1990's as Gordon Browns boom turns to bust. The RPI measure which the BoE also warned was heading towards deflation i.e. a negative RPI during 2009 fell sharply from 5% to 4.2%.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
U.S. Treasury the Final Bailout / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: We have come to a major crossroads in the history of our nation, a time when you must understand all the relevant events in far greater depth, and see the likely future with far greater clarity.
Indeed, I feel this need is so critical and urgent, I am providing you this morning with the most elaborate gala issue in the history of Money and Markets .
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Worse than the Great Depression? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Stephen_Lendman
It's a minority but growing view, including from 86-year old former Goldman Sachs chairman, John Whitehead, at the November 12 Reuters Global Finance Summit in New York. As disturbing evidence mounts, he said: "I think it would be worse than the depression. We're talking about reducing the credit of the United States of America, which is the backbone of the economic system. I see nothing but large increases in the deficit, all of which are serving to decrease the credit standing of America. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
End of the Era of Big Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_J_Panzner
Friday morning, the Commerce Department announced that October retail sales fell 2.8%, the fourth straight drop and the worst one-month decline since records began in 1992. Stripping out sales of autos and gasoline, the year-over-year total rose just 1.5%, less than the rate of inflation and the worst 12-month rate of change since February 2003. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 17-21) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
Goldilocks Economy Turns into the Humpty Dumpty Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
Before the current economic crisis became apparent to all, the most popular fable used to describe America's uncanny economic resiliency was the story of Goldilocks. It was argued that our economy was skipping down a sunny path of moderate growth, low inflation and rising asset prices. However, a much better parable for our economy over the last decade would have been the story of Humpty Dumpty: a bloated, fragile shell perched on the top of a dangerously high stone wall. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
Consumer Spending Cutbacks Further Erode Retail Payrolls / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The attached chart shows the deepening implications of falling retail sales on retail sector payrolls, highlighting the deteriorating role of the US consumer, especially as Democrats dampen hopes of any additional stimulus package before year-end.US Retail sales fell 2.8% in October vs expectations of a 2.1% decline, following a revised drop of 1.3%. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2008
U.S. Retail Sales Hit Record Low as Economy Heads for Sharp Contraction / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Advance retail sales for the month of October declined -2.8% m/m and are down -3.3% y/y/. The core ex-autos estimate fell -2.2% m/m and is up 1.7% y/y. On a monthly basis ex-gas was down -1.5%, ex-autos and building materials have fallen -2.4%, ex-autos and gas -0.5% and ex-good service -3.1%. On a three month annualized basis sales in the retail and food service sector have fallen -10.9% with the ex-auto estimate down -7.4%.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Baltic Dry Index The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking / Economics / Global Economy
By: Investment_U
Louis Basenese writes: Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…
You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).
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Thursday, November 13, 2008
Russian Alarm Bells Ringing As Ruble and Oil Prices Fall / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Alarm bells are sounding as Russia, Kuwait Suspends Trading .
Russian stocks plunged and Kuwait suspended trading as a slump in oil to below $55 a barrel roiled emerging markets and increased concern that Moscow will be forced to devalue the ruble.
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Thursday, November 13, 2008
UK on the Brink of Economic Meltdown / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Kenneth Clarke, the former Chancellor warns Britain is on the brink of 'meltdown'
Mr Clarke, 68, said the British economy is headed for a "catastrophic crisis" that will be "far worse than anything that has occurred in my lifetime".
Thursday, November 13, 2008
British Pound Crashes to New Lows as Economic Crisis Deepens / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The foreign exchange markets are witnessing heavy and sustained selling of sterling which continues following the Bank of England's inflation report and statement on the economy. The British Pound has fallen below £/$1.50 to currently stand at 149.12, and to a new low against the Euro of 119. The fast developing sterling crisis illustrates the systemic failure of the Bank of England and Labour Government to manage both the economy and the credit crisis and marks another marker following last weeks panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, as the government took control of monetary policy back from the Bank of England and effectively ordered the Bank to cut interest rates by 1.5% despite inflation hitting 5.2%. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
UK Unemployment to Soar above 2 Million for Christmas / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest UK unemployment data released today showed unemployment soared by 140,000 in the 3 months to August, up 33,000 on the month and the number officially claiming unemployment benefit rose by 25,600 in October to 970,000. This was followed by the Bank of England's report on inflation and the economy that stated that UK is heading for 2% GDP contraction for 2009 which is significant change to the existing forecasts of growth for 2009. With a three month lag in published data, the actual unemployment rate looks set to pass above 2 million by Christmas to be released in March 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Bank of England Forecasts Deep Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report was released this morning and its outlook for the UK economy was every bit as dismal as feared. The Bank's central projections for GDP growth and inflation are "substantially weaker" than in the August Report, although today's Report also acknowledges that the prospects for both are "unusually uncertain." The central projection is for a pronounced contraction in domestic demand that causes output to fall markedly through the first half of 2009, with the contraction in real GDP reaching around 2.0% on the year by Q2.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
China Gets it Right on Economic Stimulus Package 17 Times U.S. Effort / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
The announcement of a massive stimulus package of almost $600 billion shows that China means business not just in reviving, but also in rejuvenating its economy.
As both America and China confront the prospect of a global depression, both countries have chosen to fend off potential unrest with liberal government spending. But the Chinese move is bolder and more likely to succeed.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The Great Global Deleveraging Cycle Continues / Economics / Business Cycles
By: Mark_OByrne
The great global deleveraging continues. In a world that has become addicted to debt fuelled growth, the idea that readily available credit may no longer be available, has scared many into facing the truth; credit is not free and should never have been priced as such. Over the past few weeks markets have continue to sell off, outlook for production and consumption are all bearish and thus oil continues its volatile ride losing $2 overnight to its current level of $58 a barrel. (Month to date it is down over 40% in USD terms and more than 62% in euro terms). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Retail Tsunami Wave Hits Gift Cards and Shopping Mall Operator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reuters is reporting Weaker gift card demand to hit post-holiday sales .
The once-hot holiday gift card may be losing some of its luster, dealing a setback to struggling U.S. retailers who count on the cards to drive consumers into stores for a post-Christmas shopping spree. As shoppers have witnessed a slew of retail bankruptcies this year, they are showing some reluctance toward buying the cards as gifts for friends and family.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
U.S. Economic Pain Precedes Greatest Investment Opportunity of a Generation / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: If there's a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it's the one that says: “It's always darkest before the dawn.”
Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
Why Washington Cannot Prevent Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Fear of depression is sweeping the nation. Millions of Americans are consumed with anxiety, abandoning their old shop-till-they-drop habits, slashing their spending, trying desperately to pinch pennies for the coming hard times.
Thousands of bankers are snapping shut their coffers, tightening their lending standards, hunkering down in anticipation of a massive economic downturn.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
Peter Schiff and China's Economy Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
We will take a look at Schiff from two perspectives shortly. First let's note the massive influx of workers into Chinese cities is now in reverse as Chinese job losses prompt exodus .
Tens of thousands of migrant workers are leaving the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou after losing their jobs, railway officials say. The increase to 130,000 passengers leaving the city's main station daily is being blamed on the credit crunch.
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