Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, October 14, 2017
Is U.S. Unemployment at the Bottom? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Donald_W_Dony
The U.S. Unemployment rate and the markets have a direct opposite connection to each other. When one goes down (unemployment), the other (stock market) goes up.
The opposite is also true.
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Friday, October 06, 2017
Eastern Europe Is Becoming a Target for Capital from All Around the World / Economics / Eastern Europe
By: John_Mauldin
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade.
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Thursday, September 28, 2017
The Koyaanisqatsi Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The film Koyaanisqatsi was released in 1982. The title means ‘life out of balance’ in the language of the Hopi, a Native American tribe who live(d) mainly in what is now north-east Arizona. It is directed by Godfrey Reggio with music by Philip Glass and cinematography by Ron Fricke. There are no actors, and no dialogue. Philip Glass’s music underlies a series of film fragments that contrast the beauty of American nature with the noise and pollution mankind has added to it. Wikipedia:
Read full article... Read full article...The film consists primarily of slow motion and time-lapse footage of cities and many natural landscapes across the United States. The visual tone poem contains neither dialogue nor a vocalized narration: its tone is set by the juxtaposition of images and music. Reggio explained the lack of dialogue by stating “it’s not for lack of love of the language that these films have no words. It’s because, from my point of view, our language is in a state of vast humiliation. It no longer describes the world in which we live.”
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Is Pointless / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
Within the Federal Reserve sometime in 1996, a discussion took place among FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members regarding the subject of inflation targeting. Federal Reserve District Governor (San Francisco) Janet Yellen believed that a little inflation “greases the wheels” of the labor market. Her preferred “target” was 2%. She asked Chairman (at the time) Alan Greenspan his preference.
The Chairman replied. “I would say the number is zero, if inflation is properly measured.”
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Monday, September 18, 2017
Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies / Economics / Inflation
By: James_Quinn
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli
Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.
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Saturday, September 16, 2017
Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
Predictability.People.
Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.
It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.
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Friday, September 15, 2017
Higher US Interest Rates May Force Higher Inflation Rates / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
Summary:
1) Financial analysis of the three way relationship between interest rates, inflation and the U.S. national debt.
2) Higher interest rates causing higher interest payments on the $20 trillion national debt would ordinarily cause soaring deficits over time.
3) Detailed analysis of the "loophole", which is that if inflation even moderately increases - then interest rates can rise without exploding the real debt.
4) This simultaneous increase in interest rates and inflation would have a major impact on all markets, as well as long term retirement planning.
5) The logical response to rising interest rates may be to sharpen one's focus on how to better deal with higher rates of inflation over the long term.
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Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Harvey Will Reflect in Economic Data as Growth—That Might Mislead the Fed into Another Policy Error / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc on South Texas and Louisiana. As a lifelong Texan, I have many friends in that region. They’ve lived through many storms and normally take what nature throws at them in stride.
Not this time.
I am seeing headlines calling this a thousand-year flood. It seems that over 100,000 homes in Houston alone were flooded. Harvey meant business. Recovering from this storm will take a long time and a lot of resources.
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Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus circus that the mainstream press journalists rely upon to produce their daily copy i.e. economists, have once more been caught by surprise as UK inflation rockets higher to 2.9% for August up from 2.6% for July. Now standing on the threshold of breaking above 3% as the implications of sterling's sharp drop in the wake of the Brexit vote continues to feed through to rising import prices and therefore providing persistent upwards pressure on shop prices as suppliers restock at much worse exchange rates that already depressed retailers such as the big supermarkets had delayed fully implementing that I have ben warning all year was likely to result in a crisis for the retail sector during 2017, that literally faces a perfect storm which could even result in a Woolworth's moment...
Monday, September 11, 2017
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Damage, America Can’t Afford to Rebuild / Economics / US Debt
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A number of people have argued over the past few days that Hurricane Harvey will NOT boost the US housing market. As if any such argument would or should be required. Hurricane Irma will not provide any such boost either. News about the ‘resurrection’ of New Orleans post-Katrina has pretty much dried up, but we know scores of people there never returned, in most cases because they couldn’t afford to.
And Katrina took place 12 years ago, well before the financial crisis. How do you think this will play out today? Houston is a rich city, but that doesn’t mean it’s full of rich people only. Most homeowners in the city and its surroundings have no flood insurance; they can’t afford it. But they still lost everything. So how will they rebuild?
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Sunday, September 10, 2017
Another Demographic D-Day is Coming for Japan / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Harry_Dent
D-Day.Demographic death day.
Maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long term.
And Japan is facing its second one.
Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked – forever – in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies.
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Saturday, September 09, 2017
Deflation and the Markets; are deflationary forces here to stay / Economics / Deflation
By: Sol_Palha
Machines are worshipped because they are beautiful and valued because they confer power; they are hated because they are hideous and loathed because they impose slavery. Bertrand Russell
Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. continues to decline and this trend will not stop. While some Jobs have gone overseas, the new trend suggests that automation has eliminated and will continue to eliminate a plethora of jobs. As this trend is in the early phase, the momentum will continue to build in the years to come.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2017
The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.
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Saturday, September 02, 2017
Leading China Expert Lays Down 9 Major Trends That Now Drive The Chinese Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Leland Miller is a leading expert on China’s financial system and a good friend of mine.
They regularly interview (if memory serves correctly) about 2000 large Chinese companies in every sector to get a good idea of what is actually happening in the Chinese economy.
There is nothing else like their work, and anybody who is investing large sums or who just does business in China gladly pays the six-figure price to get access to their data and research.
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Wednesday, August 30, 2017
US GDP Growth Upwards Revision to 3.04%, BEA 2nd Quarter 2017 / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.04% annual rate, up +0.48% from their previous estimate and up +1.80% from the prior quarter.
Consumer spending was revised upward to a +2.27% annualized growth rate (up +0.34% from the previous estimate and up +0.95% from the prior quarter). The inventory contribution continued to be essentially neutral (+0.02), while the previous growth in commercial fixed investment was revised upward (to +0.58%). Governmental spending was revised back into contraction (-0.05%), and the growth rates for both exports (+0.45%) and imports (-0.23%) moderated.
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.
Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.
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Saturday, August 26, 2017
China’s Strategy for the Global Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
In the fall of 1993, I was sitting in class in grad school. We were using case studies to explore business management decisions. My professor walked through the history of Otis Elevators, noting that the company had reached market saturation and had choices to make.I was sort of paying attention… sort of not.
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Wednesday, August 23, 2017
These 2 Charts Reinforce My Belief That We’ll Face A Recession In 12–18 Months / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Stock valuations are the discounted values of future earnings. Future earnings depend on future revenue, which may diminish whenever the future includes a recession. So, broad economic conditions are a big factor to watch in stock valuation.
Broad economic conditions depend ultimately on the consumer’s ability and willingness to spend money. And July’s retail sales report gave us a peek at that.
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Monday, August 21, 2017
The Coming Boom Of Productivity Will Get Our Economy Back On Track / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
My good friend Gary Shilling draws some crucial distinctions with respect to wage and jobs and explains why our perplexing US labor market is actually quite rational.
Gary and I share a fundamental optimism regarding our prospects for long-term economic growth, and in this report, he tells us why.
This kind of in-depth dissection of macro trends is what Gary is known for. So without further ado, I’ll let him take it from here.
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Friday, August 11, 2017
The Shocking Economic Truth About Russia / Economics / Russia
By: Harry_Dent
The Russian drama seems to intensify with each passing hour.I certainly have my opinion on the matter, as, no doubt, do you. But it’s not my opinion that I want to share with you today. Instead, I want to share two charts that may well shed new light on recent events…
Here’s the first. I warn you, it’s shocking.
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