Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 03, 2018
Maybe The Economy Is Too Good For Investors / Economics / US Economy
By: WMA
In the early 19th century, London financier Nathan Rothschild said “buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the trumpets”. The cannons referred to the start of war (valuations are therefore attractive as disorder begins) and the trumpets refer to the peace treaty ending the conflict (at which time timid investors pile back into risky financial assets). Warren Buffet has often reiterated the same idea first enounced by Rothschild saying “buy when there is blood in the streets” (eg, when valuations are very low).
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
US Goldilocks Economy is DEAD! / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
“Once you strip out the effects of the debt binge, the artificial stimulus via currency depreciation, and the fabled ‘wealth effect’ from the equity market runup, real GDP growth stripped-down to its core was the grand total of 0.7% last year. Potemkin would be proud.” – David Rosenberg
appears every president finds the religion of false economic narrative once they ascend to power. Trump never stops babbling and tweeting about the fantastic economy and raging jobs market since his election. He has embraced the stock market bubble as proof of his brilliant leadership, rather than the tens of trillions in debt propping up the most overvalued market in world history. Every president takes credit for any good news, spins bad news as good news, or blames the previous president for bad news that can’t be denied. The president has absolutely zero impact on the economy or stock market over the short term. It’s like taking credit for the sun rising in the east each morning.
The Big Lie method works wonders when you have a willfully ignorant, mathematically challenged, easily manipulated populace. I spent the entire Obama presidency obliterating the fake economic data perpetuated by his BLS, BEA and every other government agency trying to paint a rosy economic picture. I voted for Trump because the thought of Crooked Hillary as the president made me ill. Despite disagreeing with many of his economic, budgetary, and military policies during his first year in office, I’d vote for him again over Hillary in an instant. The thought of having that evil shrew running the country gives me chills.
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Monday, February 26, 2018
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 2 / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
“Inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods.” –Many an economics professor
But does it really?
In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an inflation indicator with an excellent prediction record, and I’ll define the indicator in this article. Considering inflation determines bull and bear markets in both stocks and bonds, that’s my big pitch.
But first, here’s a recap.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2018
5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency. Persistently low official inflation rates in recent years depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets.
That’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.
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Monday, February 19, 2018
How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums / Economics / Government Spending
By: Dan_Amerman
For most retirees age 65 and over, the spending power which they rely on from government retirement programs is their Social Security benefits after their Medicare Part B premiums have been withheld.
Because Social Security is in theory supposed to be fully inflation indexed, many people believe their standards of living in retirement will be fully protected from inflation. However, when we look at what matters the most, which is the purchasing power of Social Security net of Medicare premiums - that particular number has never been intended to keep up with the rate of inflation, as a matter of design.
Current retirees have received a rude wake-up call in recent years, with the increases in their Medicare Part B premiums consuming almost all of their very small increases in Social Security benefits. This is a process that is, however, still in its early stages. Particularly if higher rates of inflation are indeed returning, then the impact on retiree standards of living may be swift, powerful and sustained.
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Sunday, February 18, 2018
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation?
Ever heard anyone else question it?
Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Bitcoin: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be / Economics / Bitcoin
By: EconMatters
Bitcoin had rocketed from $900 to almost $20,000 in 2017. We discussed why Bitcoin is a really bad investment for any investors and how 20% of Bitcoin owners took out debt in this get-rich-quick gamble.
It could all work out for everyone involved if Bitcoin were to continue its run towards $25,000 or even $60,000 according to some overly zealous predictions. The problem is Bitcoin has crashed to around $8,600 as I write this post today. Central banks like PBOC are moving to tighten oversight of bitcoin exchanges. Banks have banned purchasing bitcoins using their credit cards.
Monday, February 12, 2018
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Dan_Steinbock
If the government’s focus remains on inclusive economic development, the Philippines could become a bright spot in the global landscape.Today, there is a huge gap between the Philippines as it is portrayed by many international observers and the country’s fundamental economic realities.
The Duterte win was the triumph of ordinary Filipinos. Accordingly, there is only one way for the government to succeed. It must deliver the country’s economic promise.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
The Meaning of Economic Philosophy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Dr. Gero Jenner writes:In ‘The Open Society and its Enemies’, Karl Popper strongly defended the position that major interventions in the economy, especially when ideologically motivated, are usually disastrous and should therefore be avoided. Popper wrote his famous work towards the end of the thirties. On the one hand, he saw the devastating effects of textbook-based economies, where the working masses were tied into an economic strait-jacket by a Politburo, on the other hand, Popper was well aware of the dangers of that kind of capitalism, which tended to place the interests of a few monopolists above those of the general population. Against such aberrations, Popper propagated what he called ’social engineering‘, namely, a model of small steps, where every previous economic intervention is painstakingly scrutinized in view of its effects before any further action is embarked upon. Popper seemed to regard the economy in the same way as a highly complex machinery which a layman cannot tackle without causing the greatest damage.
Friday, January 26, 2018
A Vision for the European Economic Future / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Enda_Glynn
Hi everyone,
I have seen the Future for the European Economy,
And it is not looking good.
The EU tracks a wide number of european wide economic indicators,
Everything from consumer credit,
to unemployment expectations in the future.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Inflation Tsunami Ahead / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Inflation is one of the most misunderstood, misused and lied about topics in economics. The Fed professes to know what causes it: an overly employed workforce. But, perhaps it is aware this is false and intentionally promulgates the ruse of growth as inflation’s progenitor because central banks want to deflect attention away from its money printing. Nevertheless, one thing is abundantly clear, we all have to agree that the Fed can’t readily control the exact rate of inflation; nor can it direct what the repositories will be for its quantitative counterfeiting misadventures.
Friday, January 19, 2018
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Submissions
What really happens in an economic minute? Is the UK flush with cash or does it need a bad credit loan? How much money does the UK make every 60 seconds? What's the average household income every minute compared to the highest-powered CEOs? It can't be too much in just a minute. Or can it? We crunched the numbers to create a 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy.
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Thursday, January 18, 2018
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 / Economics / Financial Markets 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records—mostly in a good way.
But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip into my annual forecast bag and share a few highlights from my friends with you. (you can find the previous part of the 2018 forecast here)
These are the people I follow, read, and trust for their financial expertise.
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Monday, January 15, 2018
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : I think this year’s top risk is a miscalculation by the Federal Reserve—specifically, that it will tighten monetary policy too much.
The Fed is hiking interest rates because its experts believe the economy is close to “full employment.” And the Phillips Curve says wages should start rising any minute now.
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Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Trump’s Tax Cuts: The Good, The Bad, and the Inflationary / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
At last, tax reform is happening! Last week, President Donald Trump celebrated the passage of the most important legislation so far of his presidency.
The final bill falls far short of the “file on a postcard” promise of Trump’s campaign. It even falls short of the bill trotted out by Congressional Republicans just a few weeks ago. It is, nevertheless, the most significant tax overhaul in more than a decade.
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Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Chinese Economy in 2018 and Beyond / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the coming years, China shall aim at high-quality development, while seeking to forestall financial and international risks.The recent Central Economic Work Conference marked a historical point in China’s economic development. After Mao’s struggle for the mainland’s sovereignty, and Deng’s economic reforms and opening-up, President Xi’s team seeks complete much of the transition to post-industrial society by the early 2020s.
What does it all mean for Chinese economy in 2018?
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Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Eclipse of US Free-Trade Legacy in Americas and Asia Pacific / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, all major US free trade deals in North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific have fallen under fire. As American legacy in free trade is dimming, there is a new opportunity for real free trade in Asia Pacific.Recently, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau concluded a visit to China. The joint talks about a free trade pact began over a year ago. As Trudeau left Beijing, Western media headlined “Trudeau leaves China empty-handed,” while Chinese Foreign Ministry said that “both China and Canada showed willingness to negotiate and sign a free trade agreement.”
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Sunday, December 17, 2017
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard / Economics / US Economy
By: F_F_Wiley
We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.
Friday, December 15, 2017
Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives.
The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively well.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
The Jobs Report Misled You—Job and Wage Growth Are Actually Decelerating / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The monthly jobs report is one of the most important statistics for investors.
Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor, which I covered many times in my newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here). But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse.
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