Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 19, 2018
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Submissions
What really happens in an economic minute? Is the UK flush with cash or does it need a bad credit loan? How much money does the UK make every 60 seconds? What's the average household income every minute compared to the highest-powered CEOs? It can't be too much in just a minute. Or can it? We crunched the numbers to create a 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy.
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Thursday, January 18, 2018
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 / Economics / Financial Markets 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records—mostly in a good way.
But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip into my annual forecast bag and share a few highlights from my friends with you. (you can find the previous part of the 2018 forecast here)
These are the people I follow, read, and trust for their financial expertise.
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Monday, January 15, 2018
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : I think this year’s top risk is a miscalculation by the Federal Reserve—specifically, that it will tighten monetary policy too much.
The Fed is hiking interest rates because its experts believe the economy is close to “full employment.” And the Phillips Curve says wages should start rising any minute now.
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Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Trump’s Tax Cuts: The Good, The Bad, and the Inflationary / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
At last, tax reform is happening! Last week, President Donald Trump celebrated the passage of the most important legislation so far of his presidency.
The final bill falls far short of the “file on a postcard” promise of Trump’s campaign. It even falls short of the bill trotted out by Congressional Republicans just a few weeks ago. It is, nevertheless, the most significant tax overhaul in more than a decade.
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Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Chinese Economy in 2018 and Beyond / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the coming years, China shall aim at high-quality development, while seeking to forestall financial and international risks.The recent Central Economic Work Conference marked a historical point in China’s economic development. After Mao’s struggle for the mainland’s sovereignty, and Deng’s economic reforms and opening-up, President Xi’s team seeks complete much of the transition to post-industrial society by the early 2020s.
What does it all mean for Chinese economy in 2018?
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Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Eclipse of US Free-Trade Legacy in Americas and Asia Pacific / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, all major US free trade deals in North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific have fallen under fire. As American legacy in free trade is dimming, there is a new opportunity for real free trade in Asia Pacific.Recently, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau concluded a visit to China. The joint talks about a free trade pact began over a year ago. As Trudeau left Beijing, Western media headlined “Trudeau leaves China empty-handed,” while Chinese Foreign Ministry said that “both China and Canada showed willingness to negotiate and sign a free trade agreement.”
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Sunday, December 17, 2017
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard / Economics / US Economy
By: F_F_Wiley
We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.
Friday, December 15, 2017
Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives.
The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively well.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
The Jobs Report Misled You—Job and Wage Growth Are Actually Decelerating / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The monthly jobs report is one of the most important statistics for investors.
Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor, which I covered many times in my newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here). But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall / Economics / Stagflation
By: GoldCore
– UK inflation hits 3.1%, highest in nearly six years
– UK earnings flat – households are still suffering falling real wages
– Stagflation risk as food and drink prices jumped 4.1% in 12 months
– UK house prices fall two-months in a row, down 0.5% in October
– Real stagflation risk now, inflation high and growth slowing
– Savings continue to be eaten by inflation
Friday, December 08, 2017
4 Charts That Show How Trump Tax Cuts Will Trigger A Recession / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Not so long ago, I explained why tax cuts won’t stimulate the economy as much as Republicans think.
In short, most CEOs say they will use any tax savings for stock buybacks or dividends, not new hiring or expansion.
But what if, instead of little or no growth, this tax bill sets off an outright contraction?
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Finally, An Honest Inflation Index – Guess What It Shows / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Central bankers keep lamenting the fact that record low interest rates and record high currency creation haven’t generated enough inflation (because remember, for these guys inflation is a good thing rather than a dangerous disease).
To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.”
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Wednesday, December 06, 2017
An "Unprestigious" Preview of Debt Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
An "Unprestigious" Preview of Debt Deflation
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Monday, December 04, 2017
McKinsey: Automation May Wipe Out 1/3 Of America’s Workforce By 2030 / Economics / Robotics
By: John_Mauldin
McKinsey & Co. has come out with a comprehensive report on the predicted near-future effects of automation on employment.
Entitled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” the report takes us a big step closer to understanding the massive impacts of the transformation we are now embarked upon.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Why a Corporate Tax Cut Won’t Boost Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : The House and Senate are considering tax legislation that will add $1.5 trillion to annual deficits over the next 10 years, according to their own numbers.
This is okay, we're told, because the tax cuts will stoke economic growth, delivering added tax revenue that offsets the rate reductions.
Note the bigger point here.
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Monday, November 27, 2017
8 Charts That Show How Insane the Economy Is Today / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical economic interventions from our central bankers that fill the daily economic headlines.
I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to "WTF" moments.
All that said, the economists who designed these interventions had their reasons. They thought lower interest rates and liquidity injections would create jobs, spur investment, and eventually produce inflation.
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Monday, November 27, 2017
Overcoming Decades of Missed Foreign Direct Investment in the Philippines / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
Since the 1980s, economic success in Asia has often relied on foreign investment, at least initially. Last week, President Duterte took a decisive step toward that direction. Why has the change taken so long? And why is the devil in the details? In the third quarter, the Philippine economy grew 6.9%, which made it Asia’s second fastest-growing economy after Vietnam. But unlike Vietnam, which has reaped many benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI), the Philippines has not.
Again and again, former President Benigno Aquino III acknowledged the need to boost FDI during his reign. Yet, the main challenge to attract FDI has been the 60/40 foreign ownership law, which Aquino neglected to confront between 2010 and 2016.
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Monday, November 20, 2017
Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” / Economics / Money Supply
By: F_F_Wiley
Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates.
Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policy makers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B and, later, MZM. But those were just the “official” figures. Economists and pundits debated the Fed’s preferred measures while concocting their own home-brewed variations.
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Friday, November 17, 2017
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a lot of advice out there about Social Security - most of which is based on Social Security being fully inflation indexed.
However, as we will establish in this first in a series of analyses, Social Security is only partially inflation indexed. As a matter of design it does not fully keep up with inflation.
Sound like an obscure difference?
"Partial inflation indexing" is little understood by the general public, but it could transform your standard of living - along with the quality of life of millions of others - in the years and decades to come. Indeed, partial inflation indexing can mean effectively having only 11 months of benefit purchasing power- or even 8 months - to cover 12 months of expenses each year.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio got where he is by having keen insight into both human nature and economic trends.
Occasionally, he shares some of his wisdom publicly.
In one of his recent articles, Dalio argues that it is a serious mistake to think you can analyze or understand “the” economy because we now have two of them.
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