Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Slowing U.S. Economic Recovery Faces Strong Headwinds in 2011 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The U.S. economic recovery has been heading upward, but high unemployment and rising energy prices will weigh heavily on consumers and slow U.S. growth.
Many economists don't think the U.S. economy will maintain the 3.1% growth rate it established in 2010's fourth quarter. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that while global growth this year will continue at a rate of 4.8%, advanced regions like the United States will grow at a slower rate than emerging economies.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Is Deflation Still a Threat, the Deflation Survival Guide" Gives the Answer / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
"Every excess causes a defect; every defect an excess. Every sweet hath its sour...The waves of the sea do not more speedily seek a level from their loftiest tossing, than the varieties of condition tend to equalize themselves."
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Will China’s Economy Overheat? / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
China’s GDP growth continued at a blistering pace during the first quarter of 2011, rising 9.7 percent from the previous year, according to economic data released today from the People’s Bank of China. Once again this outpaced many forecasts—even that of the Chinese government—and reignited the discussion of China’s overheating economy. While its robust growth may raise a few eyebrows, the economy isn’t in danger of “red-lining.”
Monday, April 18, 2011
Inflation Destroys Real Wages / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
In the same vein as medieval physicians believed bloodletting would cure illness, modern snake-oil economists still perilously cling to their claim that rising wages and salaries are the cause of inflation. With my recent debates with these mainstream economists, I've heard the following: "without rising wages, where does the money come from to push prices higher?" I was tempted to respond, "where do the employers get the money to pay those higher wages?" But economists tend to get a little nasty when you make them feel stupid.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Japan, the Forgotten Protectionist Threat / Economics / Protectionism
By: Ian_Fletcher
Everyone's worried about China today on the trade front. And they should be.
But let's not forget that China is only the most brazen player of one-way free trade out there. We ran a $273 billion deficit with China in 2010, but we also ran an $80 billion deficit with the European Union and a $60 billion deficit with Japan.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Inflation Versus Hyperinflation, The Crucial Difference / Economics / Inflation
By: Justice_Litle
Is it possible we will see hyperinflation in the United States? Yes, but not by the route you might think...
"Hyperinflation." You've heard the word. You may have talked about it on the golf course or at the dinner table. (Or even in the grocery store.)
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Sunday, April 17, 2011
Spiralling Public Debt and Economic Stagnation in the European Union / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bob_Chapman
Europe continues to struggle from one problem to another. The euro has been strong only because the dollar has been weak. The governments of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain continue their balancing acts on the edge of a financial precipice. All have Socialist governments, which have done terrible jobs, but the opposition is not much better. Each economy is in serious trouble and if Italy and Belgium follow it will take $4 trillion to bail them out. If the solvent EU members bail them out they’ll fail as well. Americans and Brits can look down their noses, but their problems are just as bad if not worse. They all have practiced different versions of Keynesian economics that has been disastrous. Their fiscal and monetary policies have been and continue to be out of control, as corruption abounds. The solutions are unpalatable, especially for politicians, because they all spell austerity. We have just seen the European Central Bank raise interest rates as euro zone economies slow, as they hope to arrest 2.8% official inflation. Real inflation is double that number.
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Saturday, April 16, 2011
Deflation, Hyperinflation and Stagflation, Where Do We Stand? / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Jesse
Well, the good news for everyone is that nothing seems inevitable here, that there is almost always a choice, but it is often wrapped up in a nice looking rationale, with all the compulsion of a necessity, for the good of the people. Us versus them in a battle for survival and all that. And clever leaders on the extremes provide the 'them' to be dehumanized and objectified. The leftist wishes to murder the bankers, and the fascist the lower classes and outsiders. The extremes of both end up making life miserable for almost everybody except for a privileged few.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
U.S. Accelerating Inflation Mega-Trend Whilst Deflationists Continue to Reinvent a History of Worthless Deflation Forecasts / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
U.S. CPI Inflation surged higher during March by rising to 2.7% from 2.1% the month before, completely catching the mainstream financial press off guard that continues to take its cues from the Fed central bank deflation propaganda as part of its strategy for massaging the general populations inflation expectations and enabling it to print money aka Quantitative Easing, aided by academics who are paid to follow a school of thought rather than think independently and without any monetary consequences of being wrong which is then further regurgitated at length by salesmen and the BlogosFear.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
U.S. Slip-sliding into Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
In June, the Fed's bond buying binge (QE2) will end and the economy will have to muddle through on its own. And, that's going to be tough-sledding, because QE2 provided a $600 billion drip-feed to ailing markets which helped to lift the S&P 500 12% from the time the program kicked off in November 2010. Absent the additional monetary easing, the big banks and brokerages will have to rely on low interest rates alone while facing a chilly investment climate where belt-tightening and hairshirts are all-the-rage and where consumers are still licking their wounds from the Great Recession. None of this bodes well for the markets or for the millions of jobless workers who continue to fall off the unemployment rolls only to find that the social safety net has been sold to pay off the mushrooming budget deficits.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
U.S. Factory Production Strong in March and the First Quarter / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production rose 0.8% during March, following more muted gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months. Factory production, which excludes output of the nation's utilities and mining sector, advanced 0.7% in March, following impressive gains of 0.8% and 0.6% in January and February, respectively. As a result of these strong monthly increases, factory production in the first quarter of 2011 moved up at an annual rate of 9.2%, the largest increase since 1997 (see Chart 4). Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 16, 2011
U.S. March Consumer Price Index, Fed Finds Itself Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in March, following a similar increase in February. The 3.5% increase of the energy price index and the 0.8% jump in food prices made up three quarters of the overall increase of the CPI in March. On a year-to-year basis, the CPI has risen 2.7% in March, putting the three-month annualized gain at 6.1%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy rose 0.1% in March, which yields a three-month annualized increase of 2.0%. The acceleration of these inflation measures in a short time period is noteworthy (see Chart 1).
Friday, April 15, 2011
The Myth of Japan's Economic Depression Lost Decades / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Kel_Kelly
The earthquake, tsunami, and lingering nuclear crisis in Japan have devastated that country's people and their place in the global economy. Can the island nation recover? To see where Japan might go next, we have to look at one of the persistent myths about its recent past — the myth of the lost decades.
It is widely thought that Japan is in the 21st year of a recession, or at least of a muddle-through sluggish economy. Part of this poor performance, economists and the financial press habitually state, is that Japan has experienced a terrible deflation. Nevertheless, I claim that Japan's economic state for the past two decades, up until the recent disasters, has in fact been comparable to that of most developed nations.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Energy and Car Prices Lift U.S. Wholesale Price Index in March / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods rose 0.7% in March following a 1.6% gain in the prior month. A higher energy price index (+2.6%) and a jump in prices of new light motor trucks (+0.7%) were the main drivers of the overall PPI in March. The 5.7% increase in gasoline prices and 2.7% gain in heating oil stand out among the price gains reported in the March wholesale price report. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 90% of the increase in the wholesale price index is attributed to the higher energy price index. The 0.2% drop in food prices helped to trim the overall advance of wholesale prices and recorded the first decline in food prices since August 2010.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Surprise Jump / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 412,000 during the week ended April 9. It is surprising given that initial jobless have been trending down and holding below 400,000 for four straight weeks.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Recession by End of Year? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
John Taylor, CEO of FX Concepts, a currency trading firm with $8 billion under management says "We'll be in a recession by the end of the year. Three reasons: QE2 will end, Republicans are running the House, and the price of gas is heading up."
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Fed’s Exit Doors Close: Inflationary Spiral Ahead / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to put a damper on inflation is growing strong. This week, Reuters reported that Bill Gross’s PIMCO Total Return Fund, the largest mutual fund in the world, had reduced its US Treasury holdings to zero, and then followed the sale with a short-position, signaling to the market that holding US debt is not only risky, but also an entry into an asset class that provides a negative return when adjusted for inflation.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Why the Feds Are Desperate to Avoid an Economic Correction / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Bill_Bonner
Whoa! This is getting interesting. Two major central banks are tightening – China and the ECB.
But nobody seems to care. These central banks are warning investors to sell their high-risk investments. Instead, gold hits new records! The dollar is at a 15-month low. And oil moves up to $125 a barrel.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
No Need for Villains on the Trade Issue / Economics / Protectionism
By: Ian_Fletcher
Judging by, among other things, the comments posted on articles about America’s trade mess, a lot of people are getting very angry on the issue. Words like “traitor” are making their appearance. This is unfortunate, because if free trade is wrong, then it is coldly, factually wrong on its merits, and turning it into a drama of innocents and villains is unnecessary.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Economics 101: Long Material, Short Certified Idiots / Economics / US Dollar
By: Fred_Sheehan
Some relationships:
The last time the U.S. dollar exceeded 120 on the dollar index (ticker symbol DXY: a measurement of the dollar against other currencies) was in January 2002. The close on April 8, 2011, was 75.08, a 37 % decline.
Since January, 2002, gold has risen from $282 to $1,475 an ounce, also quoted at the April 8, 2011, close