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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Double Dip Recession Facts and Economic Forecasts / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a growing fear that the U.S. economy is likely to experience another recession or a double dip in the quarters ahead. Robert Hall, prior Chairman of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), refers to a double dip as a long recession marked by a brief period of economic growth. He explains further that during a double dip “activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle." The U.S. has not experienced such an event in the post-1950 period (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Falling Oil Prices Will Stimulate Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

As shown in Chart 6, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $81.31 on August 8, the lowest price since November 23, 2010. Some talking heads on the cable financial news channels will tell you that this decline in oil prices could be the catalyst for stronger growth in consumer spending in the coming months. Could be, but might not be. You see, it all depends on why the price of crude oil has been falling since late April. If the price of crude is falling because there has been an increase in the supply of crude oil, then yes, this decline in the price of crude is positive for consumer spending and economic growth in general. But, if the decline in the price of crude is due to a decrease in the demand for crude oil, then the decline in the price of crude oil is symptomatic of weakening global economic growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Waiting for an Inverted Yield Curve to Signal an Imminent Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon’t hold your breath. As Chart 1 shows, moving from a positive spread between the yield on the Treasury 10-year security and the fed funds rate has more often than not in the past 55 years signaled the commencement of a recession on the near-term horizon. There have been a few miscues – instances when a recession occurred without the spread turning negative prior to the onset of the recession and some instances when the spread turned negative but a recession did not ensue. So, like so many other leading indicators, the negative-spread recession indicator is not foolproof.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

The Economics of US Healthcare, a Giant Ponzi Scheme? / Economics / Healthcare Sector

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGilbert G. Berdine writes: According to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), national health expenditures were $2.5 trillion in 2009, or $8,086 per person. The usual critique of US healthcare discusses how the money is spent and argues that it could be better spent in other ways.

I will not discuss how the money is spent, because value is subjective. Instead, I will show that the United States cannot afford what it spends, and, as a result, the US healthcare system is a credit-induced bubble.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

The Stock Market Has Spoken: Economic Austerity Is Bad for Business / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt used to be that when the Fed Chairman spoke, the market listened; but the Chairman has lost his mystique.  Now when the market speaks, politicians listen.  Hopefully they heard what the market just said: government cutbacks are bad for business.  The government needs to spend more, not less.  Fortunately, there are viable ways to do this while still balancing the budget.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

U.S. Yellow Fever Economy, Problem of Massive Debt / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFinancial columnists of the sky-is-sagging perspective have searched for an accurate metaphor to describe the current economy. We have all failed.

"A slow-motion train wreck" doesn't work, because train wrecks as bad as what we are facing are high-speed.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Emerging Markets Still Undervalued, Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week's e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst. I can't rewrite the letter at this late hour, but will send you additional comments on Monday. And you can go to www.bloomberg.com and see everyone's remarks, including mine. It will be there somewhere, they promise me.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Debt And The Economic Degrowth Frontier / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWELL KNOWN LIMITS
There are basically two choices: degrowth by choice - or forced by uncontrolled debt growth finally becoming uncontrollable, and inevitably destroying economic growth.

The opposite "hopeful paradigm" is well known: the so-called "growth economy" is able to profit from rising amounts of debt relative to GDP for a long way up the curve. This is sure, but the single-minded  pursuit of growth pushes this mindless quest over the threshold into forced degrowth, when debt soars beyond well known thresholds.

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Economics

Friday, August 05, 2011

Mass Layoffs, Robots, Paints Dismal U.S. Jobs Siutation / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA good jobs report on Friday (if we get one) is now meaningless. Looking ahead, the jobs situation is bleak globally, not just in the US. Here is supporting evidence for my statement.

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Economics

Friday, August 05, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Holding At Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 400,000 for the week ended July 30. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 10,000 to 3.73 million. Initial jobless claims have ranged between 412,000 and 428,000 for three straight months. The main message is that firms are not hiring at a robust clip.

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Economics

Thursday, August 04, 2011

A Double Dip Recession? How Do We Protect Ourselves / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: George_Maniere

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article           Today I am going to do something really amazing. I am going to tell you that in my opinion the U.S. economy has not entered a second recession; it never came out of the first one. Well, before you professional economists start writing me that the Webster’s definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth I will simply say for who? Indeed there are many Americans who have been so economically ravaged by this crisis that they have not lived through a recession - they have endured a depression. A Gallup poll that was released in April (when the DOW was 800 points higher than today’s close) said that 29% of the people polled didn’t care what the definition of a recession was. They said they were in a depression. Add to that, another 26% polled said that they felt they had never come out of the original recession.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

US Manufacturing Indicative of Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The double dip is one of the worst phenomena of an on-going recession.  When an economy double dips, the losers of the first dip who were confident enough to enter into a small recovery are wiped out, thus setting the course for a very long second leg in an economic crisis.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Bill Gross "we are at a tipping point for another recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Gross spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Carol Massar this afternoon about the debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. economy.

Gross said that the debt-ceiling deal is a “Republican Tea Party victory” and that “we are at a tipping point” in terms of a recession. Excerpts from the interview are below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Five Things You Need to Know About the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: At any point during the recent negotiations in Washington over the debt, did you seriously think for even a second that the U.S. was about to default?

Of course, in time the U.S. government (along with many others) will default. However, they are highly unlikely to do so by decree or even through the sort of legislative inaction recently on display. Rather, it will come about through the time-honored tradition of screwing debtors via the slow-roasting method of monetary inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

U.S. Economic Fundamentals Are More Important, Debt-Ceiling Deal is an Induced Necessity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn July 31, President Obama, Senator Reid, and House Speaker Boehner shook hands on a deal that will be voted on later today. The deal negotiated would lead to a total reduction of the budget deficit by $2.1 trillion during the 2012-2021 period. It also includes raising the debt ceiling between $2.1 trillion and $2.4 trillion by the final months of 2012. The timing and magnitude of the spending cuts as indicated in Table 3 of the latest scoring from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's assessment of new legislation)point to discretionary spending cuts in the entire 2012-2021 period. Lower federal government outlays in 2012 in a fragile economic environment are a setback to economic growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

U.S. Recession is "Real Risk" According to Dow Jones ESI Indicator / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Further adding to the evidence of a huge US slowdown, a Dow Jones Sentiment Indicator says Return to a Recession is a Real Risk

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Next Down Leg of the U.S. Housing Bear Market has Begun / Economics / US Housing

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNow that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) has ended, it's time to take stock of whether inflation or deflation is likely to gain the upper hand going forward.

The Fed's monetary stimulus efforts of the last three years have done nothing to help what is arguably the biggest symptom of long-term deflation, namely the housing market. It's important to recall that the final "hard down" portion of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation cycle began with a collapse of real estate prices. The real estate bear market has been the chief evidence of deflation in the U.S. for the housing market prior to the crash represented the biggest form of savings for most Americans.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Source of Profits in the Business of Financial Speculation / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Aftab_Singh

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is scarcely an endeavor awash with more debate, allure, dogma and contempt than the business of financial speculation. The entire investment community is often derided as ‘just a bunch of gamblers’, the most successful speculators are often dismissed as ‘lucky’ and the very pursuit has even been likened to prancing around a fire with two horns on one’s temples. Naturally, we beg to differ. Here, I refute some of these commonly held misconceptions and outline our perception of the rudimentary source of consistent speculative gains.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Great Correction: 4 Years…and Counting…Still No Economic Recovery in Sight / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI’m glad to be the last speaker. Nobody can come after me and tell you why I’m wrong about everything. Instead, I get to tell you why the other speakers were numbskulls. Besides, we all have a tendency to be most influenced by the last person we talk to. Or at least I do.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

How Deep is the Global Economic Rabbit Hole? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Greg_Tomlinson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQuite simply, the world’s debt hole is deeper than any reasonable person can comprehend. It is difficult to define, and it is not terribly easy to write about - really it’s more of a concept than something that you can actually sink your teeth into. You won’t see an abundance of stories or editorials on this topic; in fact the financial media avoids the global debt situation like the plague for good reason. Sure, they talk about chunks of it, but almost never in total. However, with your indulgence, it is the purpose of this piece to bring us all a bit closer to not just understanding how dangerous things have become to all of us personally, but more importantly to frame the problem in terms of history and scale.

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