Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 09, 2011
How an Economy Collapses... and How to Protect Yourself / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
There are growing fears that an economic collapse is on the way. Is this fear justified? Before we conclude that it is a by-gone conclusion and that it's time to head for the hills, let's first cover how and why an economy collapses. In this essay I talk about economic collapse as an "internal event". Keep in mind that there are "external" reasons for an economy to collapse (such as war and/or natural events such as earthquakes etc.)
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Eurozone Debt Downgrade Shock Waves Could Slam Into US Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Dan_Amerman
Standard & Poor's missed the point when they "only" put 15 Eurozone nations on credit watch for possible near term downgrades. In this highly interconnected world - most of Europe can't be put on credit watch without putting much of the world on credit watch, with the United States being particularly vulnerable to global "contagion" risks.
Twelve possible implications for the United States are concisely explored herein. These "shock waves" include everything from the value of the dollar, to unemployment, gas prices, stock prices, derivatives, US bank stability, inflation, retirement investing, Federal Reserve reactions, the US deficit and credit rating, the potential criminal prosecution of S&P, and more.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Brazil, India, China and Eurozone Economic Headwinds to Heed in 2012 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
There has been a string of positive news about the U.S. economy in the past few days – auto sales rose, jobless rate fell, the ISM manufacturing survey points to an increase in new orders and production, private sector construction outlays advanced. But, news from abroad is disappointing and could translate into more than a temporary dip in exports. The important question is if the tailwinds can offset the headwinds blowing through the United States.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
What the Christmas Price Index is Telling U.S. Consumers About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
U.S. consumers can get a glimpse of what to expect in price changes this holiday shopping season - especially if you get your gift ideas from an old song.
The PNC Christmas Price Index, released by PNC Wealth Management (NYSE: PNC) measures the total cost of presents listed in the classic tune, "The Twelve Days of Christmas." This year, the price tag for an ambitious gift-giver buying all 364 presents hit $101,119.84, a 4.4% gain over last year's index.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Europe Entering a Decade Long Recession / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Shedlock
If French president Nicolas Sarkozy gets his wish to "Level the Playing Field" on sovereign bonds, a decade-long European recession is on its way.
Read full article... Read full article...French President Nicolas Sarkozy made it clear in a speech in Toulon last week that he wanted the private sector to be given a more-level playing field when it came to the threat of having to bear losses on their investments.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Economic Armageddon: 2012 or 2013? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Clif_Droke
In his latest report, Samuel Kress of SineScope reviewed the 120-year cycle and broke it down into its constituent cycles. For the sake of our long time readers, I’m providing my own breakdown of the 120-year cycle and its effects on the past, present and future of the financial market and economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 05, 2011
Marc Faber Warns China Economy Heading for a Major Slowdown / Economics / China Economy
By: Videos
Marc Faber's big China short. Forget Europe, says Faber, it's China that's in for a major slowdown, with a relatively short appearance on CNBC's Simon Hobbs and the Money In Motion traders.
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Monday, December 05, 2011
U.S. Economic System Misunderstanding Capitalism / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
As expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.
More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.
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Sunday, December 04, 2011
BubbleOmiX Predicts US Employment Will Climb By 5-Million Over Next 18-Months / Economics / Employment
By: Andrew_Butter
The essential theory of BubbleOmix is that Ying follows Yang or in other words What Goes-Around Comes Around.
Employment in USA is a market, some people look to buy services, and interestingly 35% of companies in USA these days can’t find qualified people for the jobs they are offering (no prizes for guessing where those jobs will go). The fact that there may be a lot of unemployed (and unemployable) people doesn’t change the numbers of jobs on offer; it just changes the wages the jobs pay…slightly.
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Saturday, December 03, 2011
U.S. Employment Up But Not Enough, World Slips into Recession As Central Bankers Unite! / Economics / Recession 2012
By: John_Mauldin
It is now common to use the term bazooka when referring the actions of governments and central banks as they try to avert a credit crisis. And this week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, we will see that it wasn't enough. Something more along the lines of a howitzer is needed (keeping with our WW2-era military arsenal theme). And of course I need to briefly comment on today's employment numbers. There is enough to keep us occupied for more than a few pages, so let's jump right in. (Note: this letter may print long, as there are a lot of charts.)
Saturday, December 03, 2011
U.S. Labor Market is Improving, but Imminent Europe Recession Could Upset the Apple Cart / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.6% in November, down from 9.1% in October. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.1% in October 2009.Payroll Employment: +120,000 jobs in November vs. +100,000 in October. Private sector jobs increased 140,000 after a gain of 117,000 in October. Addition of 82,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of September and October
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Friday, December 02, 2011
The U.S. Consumer is Finally Bouncing Back / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Consumers shed housing debt in the third quarter while ratcheting up spending elsewhere, raising hope that the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy - consumer spending - is back on the rise.
Mortgage balances fell 1.3% in the July-September period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while overall household debt shrank by 0.6%.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
China Returns to Economic Growth Mode with Major Policy Shift / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The damaging global economic effects that Europe's unfolding debt crisis pose have caused a sharp reversal in China's monetary policy - one that will lead to a greater expansion of the Red Dragon's economy.
The People's Bank of China announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it would lower the percentage of deposits commercial banks must hold in reserve by 50 basis points, effective Dec. 5.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
Why the U.S. Economy Will Be Weaker Than Expected in 2012 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
Anyone who hoped the U.S. economy would get back on track in 2011 was sorely disappointed.
The European sovereign debt crisis and the abysmal failure of policymakers to take effective action undermined any chance we had at a strong recovery.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
Ben Bernanke Beats Deflationists Into Submission With His Money Stick / Economics / Inflation
By: Jeff_Berwick
We've got a new slogan for deflationists. Deflationists: Wrong Since the Advent of Fiat Currency.
It's been the never-ending, battle royale of the economic world ever since the looming end to this financial system became starkly clear in 2008. Will the western governments, almost all completely incapable of paying the gargantuan debts enabled by democracy, central banking and fiat currency, allow the system to collapse (deflation) or worm their way out of it via inflation, until we live in a hyperinflationary apocalypse?
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
U.S. Economic Reports Paint a Bullish Picture / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors rose 10.4% to 93.3 in October, reflecting gains in all four regions of the nation. The PHSI is a indicator of actual of sales of existing homes with a lead of 1-2 months. The year-to-year increase of the PHSI is noteworthy. However, the issue of contract cancellations is a dark cloud hanging over the housing market. In recent months, the percentage of realtors reporting contract cancellations due to appraisal problems and failure to obtain credit has risen. Therefore, the October PHSI could be an exaggeration of the likely sales of home that will take place. Nonetheless, the increase of the October PHSI is a positive development in the housing sector.
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Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Yellen is Supportive of Additional Fed Action to Support U.S. Economic Activity / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen presented a case for additional Fed action to support economic activity in the United States. These two excerpts (emphasis added) from her speech indicate her opinion about the necessity for Fed action
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Euro-zone Debt Crisis, Where Would We Be Without Rules? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Adrian_Ash
"Where would be if we didn't have rules?"
"FRANCE!"
"And where would we be if we had too many rules?"
"GERMANY!"
– UK comedian Al Murray, the (very British) Pub Landlord
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
U.S. Government Spends More than it Earns, It’s All Very Taxing / Economics / Taxes
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box is something a little different for me. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management has produced a most excellent summary of the problems inherent in "all things taxing" in the US. He delves into not only the specifics but also some of the philosophy of taxation. This is a balanced piece in which he tries to present all sides and arguments, giving us a very real picture of the dilemma we face, and leaving us to draw our own conclusions. Whatever we do going forward, including nothing, the outcome with regard to taxes is going to be difficult if not painful for most of us. We talk about everyone paying their fair share, but what does that mean? The answer is that it means very different things to different people.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
With Rising Wages, Will China Remain a Manufacturing Hub? / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Earlier this month, I spent a few days at the CLSA AsiaUSA Forum in San Francisco, which offered a geopolitical and economic intellectual feast for global investors. The research firm gathered a well-rounded cast of engaging speakers that included Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain, Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young, Pollster extraordinaire Frank Luntz and renowned physicist Dr. Michio Kaku. Here's a photo I snapped during a Q&A session with former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney.