Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 02, 2012
Economic Collapse is the Number One Catastrophic Event That Americans Worry About / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Economic Collapse writes: Can you guess what the number one catastrophic event that Americans worry about is? There are certainly many to choose from. Many Americans are deathly afraid of a major terrorist attack. Others live in constant fear of natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanoes and hurricanes. Still others are incredibly concerned that a massive pandemic will break out at any time or that World War III will erupt in the Middle East. Yes, there are certainly a lot of potential catastrophic events that one can worry about in the times in which we live, but the number one catastrophic event that Americans worry about is actually "economic collapse". At least that is what a recent survey conducted by Leiflin Inc. for the EcoHealth Alliance found. But this goes along with what so many other polls have found over the past few years. Over and over again, opinion polls have found that the number one issue that American voters are concerned about is the economy. The truth is that average Americans are deeply, deeply concerned about unemployment, debt, the housing crash and the steady decline in the standard of living. It has been years since the U.S. economy has operated at a "normal" level, and many Americans are afraid that things could soon get a whole lot worse.
Sunday, January 01, 2012
Grim Economic Prospects for 2012, U.S. Fed to Overshadow the European Banking System / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Bob_Chapman
Public institutions worldwide are fighting ratings downgrades foremost of which is France, the US and, of course, sovereigns and banks worldwide. Miracles of miracles finally the rating agencies are doing their jobs. The caper they pulled in collusion with Wall Street in rating mortgage securities should have put them all in jail for life. We’ll call these efforts makeup time for their previous sins, which they never were prosecuted for. The complaint is their methodology is unreliable. We can assure you they know exactly what they are doing. The French want them to cease and desist. That is not going to work, because the French government and banks have very serious solvency problems. Central bankers and sovereigns always believe they are above the law. Eventually they all pay the price of greed and corruption.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
China's Economic Future Deconstructed: Holmes vs. Chang / Economics / China Economy
By: The_Gold_Report
China has become the $5.88 trillion question in the world financial equation for 2012. In an attempt to gauge the direction of this economic elephant, Cambridge House International is asking two China experts to debate the health of the second-largest economy at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference January 22. We called the two speakers for a preview of the tactics they will take in this epic debate.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Five U.S. Economy Economic Blunders of 2011 and Five Fixes for 2012 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes : Government's ability to fix the economy's problems may be limited, but it at least should try not to make matters worse. Unfortunately - but not surprisingly - many of the things that happened in Washington this year did the U.S. economy more harm than good. More than two years after the official end to the recession, the U.S. economy is still suffering through sluggish growth and an 8.6% unemployment rate. "They've been wrong from the beginning, and they're still wrong," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald of U.S. government policymakers. "It makes you wonder if any of these people passed Economics 101." That said, here are five of the government's worst economic blunders of 2011:
Friday, December 30, 2011
Global Economic Collapse In 2012? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
MORAL AND ECONOMIC DECLINE
This longstanding European genre-material for books, films, plays - and politics - dates from the end of the first world war, with a massive fillip in the 1930s long depression and rise of Stalin and Hitler, and this theme is surely back with a vengeance today. One reason is the decline isn't only economic, it is also moral, social and psychological and the track record for doing anything about it is bad, both in Europe, USA and Asia. The conventional solution, the historical precedent of the 1930s decline was Muddle Through ending with a world war, but thinking that today is unthinkable.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Rising Systemic Risk and Multiple Black Swans, Gaping Chasm between Economics and Physics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: DK_Matai
Violation of the Laws of Physics?
Does today's dominant economic and financial thinking violate the laws of physics? Mainstream finance and economics have long been inconsistent with the underlying laws of thermodynamics, which are fast catching up as a result of globalisation. At present, economics is the study of how people transform nature to meet their needs and it treats the exploitation of finite natural resources including energy, water, air, arable land and oceans as externalities, which they are not. For example, we cannot pollute and damage natural ecosystems and their local communities ad infinitum without severe repercussions to their underlying sustainability. It is widely recognised both within the distinguished ATCA 5000 community across 120 countries and beyond that exchange rates instability, equity and commodity market speculation -- particularly fuel, food and finance -- and resultant volatilities as well as unsustainable levels of external debt are the main causes of asymmetric threats and disruption at the international level manifest as known unknowns, ie, low probability high impact risks and unknown unknowns or black swans.
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Thursday, December 29, 2011
Bring on US Debt Default, Otherwise, it's Permanent Deficits and Unemployment / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
Throughout the West, unemployment remains stubbornly high. Unemployment in these European nations ranges from 8.5% in Italy to over 20% in Spain.
For Europe as a whole, the figure is 10.3%. What is revealing is this: ever since 1995, it has been above 9% most of the time. Only in February 2008 did it fall to 7.3%. For workers under age 25, the figures are much worse. A generation of educated college graduates has become a lost generation.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
2012 Offers Few Economic Reasons for Optimism / Economics / Recession 2012
By: John_Browne
As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will see meaningful change until the Bretton Woods era of U.S. dollar dominated paper money finally comes to an end. In other words, our current experiment in unlimited monetary expansion will continue until it explodes.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Japanese Economy Slumps, Industrial Production Falls 2.6% / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
A torrent of bad news hit Japan in November. Please consider some details from the Bloomberg article Japan Factory Output Falls on Global Slump
- Factory output fell 2.6 percent from October
- Exports fell for the second straight month
- Capital spending in the third quarter dropped 9.8 percent
- The Bank of Japan Tankan quarterly index of corporate sentiment fell to minus 4 this month. A negative figure indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Economic Collapse Stealth Mode In Asia - Jim Rogers Moves To China / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Andrew_McKillop
In interview with Lelde Smits of Australia's Finance News Network Jim Rogers said he is proud his two children speak Mandarin so well they can ask for a Big Mac in Pekin and not get a Donald Duck flashlight or a knockoff designer T shirt instead. Rogers said that Asia is weathering the storm and told Lelde Smits he has voted with his feet and set up shop in Singapore (because air pollution is so out of sight in mainland China's cities) but feared that Asia’s going to suffer, all the same, for sure and certain, because Europe and the USA are going down the tube.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
What Happened To Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
The magical invention of economic growth needs the magic of invention, and technological-type invention is always around and available the optimists tell us. When it isn’t, like now, doctoring the numbers and letting them doctor themselves with false overvalued monetary units "measuring" the growth that is not there will pass muster, the optimists don’t tell us. Doctoring growth that isn't also draws on productivity gains that aren't, using the same vastly overvalued money units that "measure" growth: for how many years have we had productivity gains (or claims) at 6% or more every year ? In plenty of national cases, simply inverting claimed productivity gains, and claimed rates of inflation, will give a much more honest picture of what is going on. This now longstanding and traditional doctoring of the data, both deliberate and inadvertent, extended over 10 and 15 years or more, gives us vastly different readouts for the real situation: which is bad.
Monday, December 26, 2011
A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year / Economics / China Economy
By: EconMatters
Goldman's Jim O'Neill noted in a recent interview that the world's future prosperity depends on China's growth. While we don't totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world's future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 24, 2011
U.S. the Payroll Tax 'Holiday' Extension a Festivus Miracle for GDP? / Economics / Taxes
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In recent days many economists were preparing to lower their 2012 GDP forecasts in case Congress could not reach an agreement to extend the 2% reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll (FICA) tax. I kept getting questions on how much I was going to lower my forecast if the tax holiday were not extended. And I kept responding, 0.0%.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Restoring Economic Growth Is Not Possible, Invisible Mending ? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
There are no shortage of search engine hits with "Restore economic growth". In Europe, the eye of the storm for ever more complex and unsure, but supposedly market friendly debt control plays that finally depend on even more government borrowing, restoring economic growth always figures somewhere on the teleprompter for leading edge interviews by political deciders. The quest to retore economic growth is always cited as a goal by deciders, but they know, and we know that it isnt possible.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
China’s Stimulus Talk And Buying Silver On The Copper Dip / Economics / China Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
All eyes are now on China as a source for consumer strength in the developed world. Customs data released on December 10 tells a concerning story - China's overseas shipments are growing, but at their slowest pace since 2009.
In November, China recorded 13.8% growth in overseas shipments from the year-ago period. However, Chinese trade balances are beginning to turn decidedly toward an imbalance. The balance numbers recorded a 35% plunge in China's trade surplus, enough to worry investors that European consumption is dropping dramatically in light of a debt crisis.
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Sunday, December 18, 2011
U.S. Economy Center Cannot Hold, Where Is My Return to the Mean? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
- The Second Coming, by William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
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Sunday, December 18, 2011
Global Economic Crisis: The U.S. An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: LEAP
As announced in previous GEABs, in this issue our team presents its anticipations on the changes in the United States for the period 2012-2016. This country, the epicentre of the global systemic crisis and pillar of the international system since 1945, will go through a particularly tragic in its history during these five years.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Understanding Unemployment, Keynesian vs. Marxist Explanations / Economics / Unemployment
By: Global_Research
Ismael Hossein-zadeh writes: “A study of the struggle waged by the English working class reveals that, in order to oppose their workers, the employers either bring in workers from abroad or else transfer manufacture to countries where there is a cheap labor force. Given this state of affairs, if the working class wishes to continue its struggle with some chance of success, the national organisations must become international.” (Karl Marx)
Saturday, December 17, 2011
U.S. Inflation, A Hurdle for the Next Round of Quantitative Easing? / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in November after a 0.1% drop in October. The 1.6% drop in the energy price index and the muted 0.1% increase in food prices helped to hold down the overall gain of the CPI in November. Gasoline prices continue to decline and offset higher prices of heating oil. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in November following gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months. Higher prices for apparel (+0.6%) and medical care (+0.4%) show the relatively large gains in November. Shelter costs advanced 0.2% in November, matching the increase seen in October.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
China Economy May Drag World Down / Economics / China Economy
By: Barry_Elias
My column of June 24, 2011 ("China Yield Inversion May Portend Economic Slowdown") opened with the following sentence:
“The yield on Chinese bonds are inverting at an accelerating rate. This does not portend well for the Chinese economy, and this may have negative implications globally.”
China’s contribution to global economic growth this year is nearly 40%.