Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
What If California Were Greece? Is Europe Coming Together or Flying Apart? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
It is simply hard to tear your eyes away from the slow-motion train wreck that is Europe. Historians will be writing about this moment in time for centuries, and with an ever-present media we see it unfold before our eyes. And yes, we need to tear our gaze away from Europe and look around at what is happening in the rest of the world. There is about to be an eerily near-simultaneous ending to the quantitative easing by the four major central banks while global growth is slowing down. And so, while the future of Europe is up for grabs, the true danger to global markets and growth may be elsewhere. But, let’s do start with the seemingly obligatory tour of Europe.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Deflation Isn't the Enemy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_Pento
We now live in a world where deflation has become public enemy number one. In this current economic environment, governments seek a condition of perpetual inflation in order to maintain the illusion of prosperity in the developed world. But in reality, deflation is the free-market approach to rectify a secular period of superfluous money supply growth, debt accumulation and asset price appreciation.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Economic Recovery Is an Illusion When Adjusted or Inflation / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: The_Gold_Report
John Williams, author of the ShadowStats.com newsletter, shines light on his interpretations of the GDP, CPI, unemployment and other government statistics in this exclusive Gold Report interview from the recent Recovery Reality Check conference. Highlights include what the money supply measures tell him and why QE3 will be a hard sell.
The Gold Report: John, at the recent Casey Research Recovery Reality Check conference you described the economic recovery heralded by the Obama administration as an illusion based largely on skewed inflation data. Can you walk us through why, based on your calculations, a recovery is impossible?
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Saturday, May 19, 2012
Europe and Eurozone Economy Q1 2012 GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because in our fiat currency world continuing GDP growth is of huge importance.
Featured Article: An article earlier this week reported GDP growth for both the 17 country Eurozone and the 27 country European Union was 0.0% in Q1 2012. The European Union includes the 17 Eurozone countries.
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Friday, May 18, 2012
Will the Fed and the ECB Put in Place New Financial Accommodation? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed and the European Central (ECB) face different policy challenges at the moment but the nature of recent economic developments has raised the probability of both central banks likely to consider another round of monetary policy support, with the Fed having significantly more room to ponder compared with the ECB.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Europe An Accident Waiting to Happen, or 'Ever Closer To The Cliff'! / Economics / Unemployment
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because Youth Unemployment has to be at or near the top of both near-term and long-term economic issues that must be addressed, or if they aren't, bring the 'edge of the economic and societal cliff' ever closer.
Featured Article: A May 14 article focuses on Europe's youth unemployment numbers. The article reports that not only do many European countries currently suffer from serious youth unemployment rates, but also points out that while this may be a somewhat exacerbated problem currently, it is not a new phenomenon in many European countries. For example, the article reports that while youth unemployment rates have reached 51% in Greece and Spain, 36% in Italy, and 30% in Ireland, the average youth unemployment rate for the past 40 years has been:
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Thursday, May 17, 2012
Economic Recovery Via Shared Sacrifice, Cutting Government Spending, Deficit and Debts / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: The_Gold_Report
If the people and politicians of the U.S. can't muster the will to reform Social Security and Medicare, the country will slide on down toward what internationally renowned economist Lacy Hunt calls the "bang point." What we'd face on the other side would be bad news indeed. But in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Hunt goes on to list a few steps to turn the tide on economic growth. The route won't be an easy one but it would address the debt and begin to improve living standards.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Economic Austerity Offers Europe their Only Hope / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Michael_Pento
The prevailing view amongst Keynesians is that the austerity measures being taken in Europe to prevent a complete currency and bond market collapse is the cause of their current recession. But blaming a recession on the idea that an insolvent government was finally forced into reducing its debt is like blaming a morning hangover on the fact that you eventually had to stop drinking the night before.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2012
The All-Important Question, Are Major Economies in Recovery? / Economics / Global Economy
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Casey Research writes: For pretty much everyone, no matter where they are located in the economic strata, few if any questions are more germane to making plans for the future than whether the US and other major global economies are in recovery.
Getting the answer to that question right is of special importance to investors and businesses.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Germany Waving the Euro-zone White Flag, Viva Los Rescates Financieros de los Bancos / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
For quite some time in this letter I have been making the case that for the eurozone to survive, the European Central Bank would have to print more money than any of us can now imagine. That the sentiment among European leaders was that they were prepared for such a move was clear – except for Germany, which is haunted by fears of a return to the days of the Weimar Republic and hyperinflation.
Friday, May 11, 2012
China: Imports and Exports of Goods Post Disappointing Gains / Economics / China Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade surplus of China increased to $28.1 billion to $22.8 billion in April. However, the growth rate of exports and imports show a setback. Exports grew 4.9% from a year ago in April, down from an 8.9% pace in March. Exports of China rose nearly 21% in 2011 and moved up 14.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 on a year-to-year basis.
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Friday, May 11, 2012
U.S. Trade, Initial Jobless Claims – Mixed Signals / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $51.83 billion in March from $45.42 billion in the prior month. Exports (+2.9%) and imports (+5.2%) of goods and services both advanced in March, but imports outpaced exports. After adjusting for inflation, the goods trade gap increased to $48.9 billion during March from $44.1 billion in the previous month. A large part of the widening of the trade gap was from the non-petroleum component with oil imports accounting for the relatively smaller share. Capital goods excluding autos (+7.8%), autos (+4.8%), and consumer spending excluding autos (+7.8%) were thelarge components of imports. Exports of capital goods excluding autos rose 2.7% in March.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Post-Financial Crisis – How do the Major Economic Players Stack Up? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The global financial crisis broke out in August 2007 and the U.S. economy plunged into a severe recession in December 2007 and the recovery commenced in June 2009. The financial crisis touched nearly all major economies across the world. Where do the major economies of the world stand as the fifth anniversary of the crisis is not too distant? If progress is measured in terms of real gross domestic product, the U.S. economy ranks behind Canada in the G7 (USA, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada, and Japan) but it is ahead of the euro area.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Don’t Count China Economy Out / Economics / China Economy
By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous
Double-digit growth in the world’s second largest economy is officially over. China this month reported that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 8.1 percent a year in the first quarter of 2012, down from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter.Investors were disappointed, anticipating a milder drop to 8.4 percent. Much of the slowdown in China’s GDP stemmed from a drop in demand for its exports in key markets including the US and Europe.
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Monday, May 07, 2012
Keynes' Legacy is 24% Unemployment Rate / Economics / Unemployment
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
In "'Lost generation' to suffer years of unemployment", Financial Times, 3 May, the legacy of Keynes was summed up by comments on Spanish youth,
"More than half of those under 25 are without work and face a bleak future. . ."
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Sunday, May 06, 2012
World Wide Debt, A Graphic Review of the Strategic Investment Conference / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
The US employment numbers came out this morning, and they were disappointing. But disappointing does not begin to describe the situation I read about today in Europe. I have just finished up with my conference in Carlsbad, California and am getting back to the room late. I have to get up in a few hours (4 AM is rather obscene) to fly to Tulsa to see my daughter graduate from university, but wanted to drop you a note as I normally do on Friday night. But given the time and the need for some sleep, tonight I will draw your attention to the writing of a few friends and some of the more interesting charts I saw at the conference. It will be a shorter letter than usual, but we will uncover a few real nuggets; and next week I will be back to a more normal writing schedule.
Sunday, May 06, 2012
Savings, investment, and the Keynesian preference, a follow-up / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is a general belief that government finances are somehow immune from the financial reality faced by everyone else – an illusion fostered by bond markets and supported by the public’s wishful thinking. Look no further than the plight of the eurozone for evidence of the reality. Not only that, but history tells us that countries regularly default, yet we continue to buy government bonds in the belief they are less risky than any private sector debt. And if we begin to question the status quo, we are even told by financial regulators that government debt is less risky than anything else. Banking regulation enshrines it in Basel Committee guidelines, and modern portfolio theory – which guides securities regulation – casts it in stone.
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Saturday, May 05, 2012
U.S. Systemic Jobs Crisis / Economics / Unemployment
By: Global_Research
Joseph Kishore writes: Only 115,000 jobs were added in the US in April, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was significantly below expectations, and was the smallest gain in six months. It was well below the revised figure of 154,000 jobs added in March.
The official unemployment rate, which bears little resemblance to the actual level of joblessness, fell from 8.2 to 8.1 percent. This was due largely to the fact that more people gave up looking for work, and therefore are not counted as unemployed.
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Friday, May 04, 2012
Europe Is A Bigger Problem Than The Slowing U.S. Economy! / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Sy_Harding
Here’s the problem in just a handful of words.Germany is Europe’s strongest economy. Yet even its Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 46.2 in April from 48.4 in March. Any number below 50 indicates recessionary contraction. So the further plunge in its PMI has even Europe’s strongest economy sitting on the edge of a potential recession.
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Thursday, May 03, 2012
Will Germany Economic Growth Reaccelerate Soon? / Economics / Germany
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Germany fell to 46.9 in April, which is a nearly three-year low. In other words, Germany, the juggernaut of the region, is experiencing a noticeable setback in factory activity. PMIs of nations have a strong positive relationship with GDP.