Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Forget QE3, America Needs a Real Road and Job Stimulus / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: EconMatters
How is the condition of roads that you drive On? Well, the roads that I drive on are so bad that they require a large truck or SUV to navigate at anything close to normal speeds. The potholes are alignment killers, and the horrible patches were slapped on so poorly that they become uneven speed bumps. And I reside in one of the top 5 largest cities in the U.S. with a lot of petro money that has done much better than most of other cities (e.g., the newly bankrupt Stockton, CA) during the financial downturn in the economy. It gets better yet; I'm talking about the better part of town instead of the lower revenue districts. So the question is how did we get to this state? And what are the likely solutions?
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Here Comes the Hyperinflationary Bailout Endgame / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Midas_Letter
In 2009, I wrote that the stimulus, tarp, and zero interest rates were going to result in a rally in the stock market, but that the fundamental causes of the 2008 financial crisis, of which the housing bubble collapse was only one outcome, were still present, and that the financial stimulus, which is effectively a tax on future generations, would compound those symptoms.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Global Economic Stalemate? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because the referenced article is a well-balanced, well-written, very brief - albeit somewhat simplistic - overview of the economic models of the United States and the Eurozone. The article also speaks to China and briefly references Brazil and India.
Featured Article: An article Monday written by Robert Samuelson, a Washington Post syndicated columnist. In this article, Mr. Samuelson describes the economic model of:
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Wednesday, June 27, 2012
The Great Depression Again? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because it is foolish not to consider the possibility of depression, particularly in the face of the preponderance of commentary over the past many months that rampant inflation is on the horizon
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
The Black Hole of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The Global Picture and Where We Are Now
For the last few years we've watched as the Credit Crunch morphed into the Sovereign Debt crisis in Europe, which may re-cross the Atlantic to hit the U.S. Treasury market. During that time, we have watched a series of patch-up jobs on the crisis that have only succeeded in prolonging the crisis without any real structural remedies. We've also watched how central bankers have seen the 'buck' passed to them, when their role is strictly in support of government action that should have led the way. Central bankers are running out of tools to tackle the task they should never have been asked to tackle alone.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2012
What's Stifling U.S. Job Creation / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Excessive government regulation and uncertainty over tax policies are what's restraining companies from hiring, former General Electric (NYSE: GE) CEO Jack Welch said on CNBC last Wednesday.
Welch joins a large number of economists and pollsters trying to sort out why the U.S. economy in 2012 hasn't rebounded more strongly from the 2008-2009 recession.
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Monday, June 25, 2012
Just A Cyclic Economic Ripple Or Structural Long Term Recession ? / Economics / Recession
By: Andrew_McKillop
For global media, the 2008 crisis was signalled by the so-called "near collapse" of banks, insurers and
mortgage lenders like the UK's RBS and Northern Rock, the USA's JP Morgan, AIG and a string of
smaller players like Bear Stearns, but was above all symbolized by the outright collapse of Lehman
Brothers in the autumn of 2008. Since the start of 2012, revealing the supposed "surprising weakness"
of the OECD economies, and the more (or really) surprising weakness of the Chinese and Indian
economies, the events of recent months ram home the basic facts. Emerging from what in 2008 was a
finance-sector crisis in the OECD, easily explained by the perils of casino capitalism operating on debt
to get and then lose its betting chips, the subsequent and present financial collapse: 1) is systemic not
temporary; and 2) is global, affecting every country in the world. Through globalization of the
economy, and supposed "global integrated capitalism" we now have a globally integrated catastrophe.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
An Austrian Defense of the Euro, Hayek versus Keynes / Economics / Euro
By: MISES
Introduction: The Ideal Monetary System
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: Theorists of the Austrian School have focused considerable effort on elucidating the ideal monetary system for a market economy. On a theoretical level, they have developed an entire theory of the business cycle that explains how credit expansion unbacked by real saving and orchestrated by central banks via a fractional-reserve-banking system repetitively generates economic cycles. On a historical level, they have described the spontaneous evolution of money and how coercive state intervention encouraged by powerful interest groups has distanced from the market and corrupted the natural evolution of banking institutions. On an ethical level, they have revealed the general legal requirements and principles of property rights with respect to banking contracts, principles that arise from the market economy itself and that, in turn, are essential to its proper functioning.[1]
Sunday, June 24, 2012
The Unseen Economic Hand / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The assessment of economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product is a fallacy, because GDP is merely a measure of the amount of money in an economy. The one thing it does not measure, which is central to economic progress (note progress, not growth), is the level of entrepreneurial activity. This has important implications for the efficacy of government interventions and solutions to the current economic crisis.
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Sunday, June 24, 2012
Leading U.S. Economic Indicators and the Yield Curve, Where’s All That Money Going? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
I have often said that when someone is appointed to be a member of the Federal Reserve, they are taken into a back room and given a complete DNA change. They simply are not like you and me once they step out of that room, with the exception of Fisher and Lacker and a few colleagues who seem to be able to resist the infection. This week we will look at the recent action of the Fed and use that as a springboard to think about how effective Fed policy can be in an age of deleveraging. And if there is time, we simply must look at Europe. I started this letter in Texas and will finish it this morning in Spain.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
U.S. Debt Crisis, This is Not America / Economics / US Debt
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Over the past few days, Henry Blodget at Business Insider posted a number of graphs, here and here, which depict something about the US economy that everybody knows to some extent or another, but that most of us won't have let thoroughly sink in. For some because the consequences are too opaque, for others because they are too scary. But make no mistake: we can only continue to ignore or misinterpret them at our own peril. And even then it's terribly late in the game.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Reasons Why U.S. Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly) / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.
When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let's take a look at why.
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Thursday, June 21, 2012
Fed Downgrades U.S. Economic Outlook and Buys Insurance / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Of the Fed's three options available today (do nothing, engage in QE3, extend Operation Twist), it has chosen the diplomatic route. It appears the Fed was concerned that if it took the path of using only language to indicate support it could rock a fragile global financial system. Given that emergency aid could not be justified, QE3 was out of the question at the present time. The Fed has chosen an extension of Operation Twist as it provides insurance and has fewer avenues of criticism. The Fed indicated that an extension of maturities of its Treasury security holdings will not expire as of June but will remain in place until the end of 2012. The expectation is that this action would exert downward pressure on long term interest rates.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Economic Austerity Vs Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Adrian_Ash
"I have seen a grievous evil under the sun; wealth hoarded to the harm of its owners." – Ecclesiastes 5:13
MOST PEOPLE still get it. Hardly anyone dares guess where it leads.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Economic Growth Versus Austerity: A U.S. Dollar Perspective / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Axel_Merk
Austerity versus Growth? Which economic model is sustainable? If it weren’t for those pesky bond vigilantes, it may be only politics. Let’s not get too excited that either path will work. Let’s look at the implications for investors with a focus on the U.S. dollar.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Krugman’s Greek Temple of Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
A lot of people have weighed in on the Greek Morality Play, better known as the collapse of Greece's economy, and there is no shortfall of "wisdom" and advice. (For that matter, I made comments myself on the Greek situation during an interview on the RT network last March.)
Not surprisingly, Paul Krugman has weighed in again, and this time he not only claims that the problem is not enough inflation, but also deliberately ignores the real problem behind much of the Greek collapse: Greece's notorious and "bloated" (to use a term from Krugman's employer, the New York Times) bureaucracies led by its militant public employee unions. Instead, Krugman sets up other straw men and then claims that if only – If Only! – the Germans would crank up the monetary printing presses, Greece could be saved.
Before going into specifics, I would like to point out that Krugman is correct when he notes that a single currency union of many states indeed does impose certain fiscal restrictions. The examples he uses for the United States are dishonest, and even when explaining the European currency union, he does not tell the whole story, lapsing, instead, into his usual spate of accusations coupled with his demands for more inflation. (And, yes, I will explain my point later in this piece.)
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Euro-zone Debt Crisis Puts Germany Between a Rock and Hard Place / Economics / Germany
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: In order to better understand Germany's Eurozone dependencies, and why Germany is between 'a rock and a hard place' as it makes decisions that likely will:
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Europe's Solution isn't More Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
We now live in a phony economic world where central bankers rule without check. Any hint of weakening data, which is actually a sign of reality and healing returning to the economy, is quickly met with the promise of more disastrous money printing. Last week we saw U.S. factory orders down and initial jobless claims rise. In Europe, we saw the Spanish bank bailout fall flat on its face and interest rates spike in Spain and Italy. Therefore, in predictable fashion, financial markets soared on the premise that the ECB and Fed must imminently ride to the rescue once again.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012
BBC Reports Falling UK CPI Inflation as Good News, Misses the Inflationary Depression In Progress / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The BBC with much fanfare has been leading its news bulletins all day with the apparent good news that the UK CPI Inflation rate had fallen in mAY to 2.8%, its lowest level for 2.5 years, with it's economics experts and members of the general public presented as painting the news as a highly positive development.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
U.S. Economy Flirting with Disaster / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I offer a main course, a veritable piece de resistance, for Outside the Box readers, from my friend Rich Yamarone. Rich is Chief Economist for Bloomberg and one really sharp talent. He helps write Bloomberg Brief: Economics, a daily notebook that comes out every business morning with an all-encompassing view of what's happening and will happen.
I have been on stage with him several times recently and have spent even more time with him over dinners. He keeps reminding me to pay attention to the slow-motion slowdown and eventual (he says) recession that is coming right here to the US. He thinks ten-year bond rates could scare 0.5% (not a typo!) if/when both Europe and China have a simultaneous crisis and the US is seen as a real –and perhaps the last – safe haven (to which I would add: besides gold). Certainly 1% on the ten-year and 2% on the 30-year will be on offer in such a scenario.
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