Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
What All Major Economic Depressions Have in Common / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). -- Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition (p. 88)
Has the United States met that precondition?
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Friday, March 23, 2012
U.S. Economy Dead Man Walking, The Crash of 2012 / Economics / US Economy
By: Casey_Research
Doug Casey, Casey Research writes: In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery.
[Skype rings: It's Doug Casey, calling from Cafayate, Argentina. He sounds tired, but pleased with himself.]
Doug: Lobo, get out your mower; it's time to cut down some green shoots again, and debunk a bit of the so-called recovery.
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Thursday, March 22, 2012
China Shops While American Investors Drop / Economics / China Economy
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
Unquestionably there has been a significant change in investor sentiment since the crash of 2008. The 50% decline in stock prices in 2008-2009 combined with the financial sector bailouts, the "Flash Crash" of 2010, and the continued demonization of our leading financial institutions, has helped shatter the public's faith in Wall Street. With U.S. stock markets essentially flat over the past 13 years (despite occasional heart-stopping volatility), many investors may have decided that long term equity investments are just no longer worth the risk.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Is the U.S. Economy Really Healing? / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Please don’t believe the hype that the American economy is healing. While it is true that some data is showing improvement, the true fundamentals of the economy continue to erode.America’s trade deficit hit $52.6 billion in January. That’s the highest level since October of 2008 and is clear evidence that we have fully reverted back to our under production, under saving and overconsumption habits with alacrity.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
How Can U.S. Economy Be Recovering When Cities Are Going Bankrupt? / Economics / US Debt
By: EWI
As pundits chatter about an economic recovery, 80 miles east of San Francisco you'll find a city (pop. 292,000) facing bankruptcy:
Stockton is on the verge of becoming the largest city in the United States to declare bankruptcy...
San Francisco Chronicle (3/4)
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Is Fiat Money Inflation a Fraud? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mario_Innecco
The classical definition of inflation is an increase in the amount of money in circulation leading to a rise in prices of goods and services. In a fiat money system money and credit are imposed by statute on the public and controlled by the central banking cartel and not a free market for money and credit. As Felix Somary once said: “the state alone is responsible for inflation: inflation without government, or indeed against government, is impossible.”(1)
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Getting Back to Full Employment, Where Will the Jobs Come From? / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
"Six years into our global data collection effort, we may have already found the single most searing, clarifying, helpful, world-altering fact.
"What the whole world wants is a good job.
"This is one of the most important dsicoveries Gallup has ever made. At the very least, it needs to be considered in every policy, every law, every social initiative. All leaders – policy makers and lawmakers, presidents and prime ministers, parents, judges, priests, pastors, imams, teachers, managers and CEOs – need to consider it every day in everything they do.
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Sunday, March 18, 2012
Euro Crisis: Plight of the Netherlands, Staggering Unemployment in Spain and Greece / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
A report by the London-based Lombard Street Research, which says the Netherlands is badly handicapped by euro membership, and as a result the Dutch Freedom Party has called for a return to the Guilder. Leader Geert Wilders has become the first political movement in the euro zone with a large popular base to opt for withdrawal from the single currency. The Freedom Party is a conservative populist party. We do not read Dutch, but the very fact that this information was only picked up by a few sources outside of the Netherlands shows you what managed news is all about.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Gas Prices Lift Overall U.S. Consumers Price Inflation in February / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February after a 0.2% increase in the prior month. According to the BLS, about 80% of the increase was from higher prices for gasoline. Gasoline prices shot up 6.0% in February to result in a 3.2% increase of the energy price index, despite a 3.4% drop in natural gas prices and a steady reading for electricity. From a year ago, the CPI rose 2.87%, following gains of 2.93% in January and 3.9% in September.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Higher Energy Prices Lift U.S. Producer Price Index / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% in February after a 0.1% increase in the prior month. The 1.3% gain in the energy price index was led by a 4.3% jump in gasoline prices. The food price index slipped 0.1%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI advanced 0.2% during February vs. a 0.4% increase in January.
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Friday, March 16, 2012
U.S. Jobless Claims – Labor Market Improvement Continues / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 14,000 to 351,000 during the week ended March 10. The four-week moving average at 355,750 is the lowest in nearly four years. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, declined 81,000 to 3.343 million, the lowest since August 2008. The main message is the labor market conditions are improving at an impressive pace.
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Thursday, March 15, 2012
Europe's Economic Crisis: Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Belgium Following Greece / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
It isn’t over until it is over. Of course, we are referring to Europe and its version of 1984. We find it profound that the bankers, politicians and bureaucrats of Europe can do what they have done with a straight face. Investor had a haircut shoved down their throats and the ECB, the European Central Bank and the IMF were exempt.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Making 9 Million Jobless 'Vanish': How The U.S. Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics / Economics / Unemployment
By: Dan_Amerman
When we look at broad measures of jobs and population, then the beginning of 2012 was one of the worst months in US history, with a total of 2.3 million people losing jobs or leaving the workforce in a single month. Yet, the official unemployment rate showed a decline from 8.5% to 8.3% in January - and was such cheering news that it set off a stock rally.
How can there be such a stark contrast between the cheerful surface and an underlying reality that is getting worse?
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
FOMC Meeting March 13, Fed Expected Stand Pat as U.S. Economic Recovery Remains Stable / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
It is widely expected that the Fed will stand pat at the March 13 FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, the Fed’s view about the economy should reflect nuanced modifications, which will offer hints about the next policy step.
The key question is if there is a need for additional policy action to support economic growth. Incoming economic data present a mixed picture. The ISM factory survey shows continued growth but at a slower pace compared with readings of recent months. The composite index moved down to 52.4 from 54.1 and the index measuring new orders stood at 54.9 from 57.6 in January (see Chart 1). Factory production data for February are scheduled for publication on March 16.
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Monday, March 12, 2012
U.S. Economy Rotting From Beneath / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
Are you shocked that even with a 24-hour news cycle, crucial bits of economic news still fall through the cracks?
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Sunday, March 11, 2012
The Failed Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andrew_McKillop
Since 2007-2008 nearly all OECD countries, from Japan to the USA and the straight majority of European economies tasted free-fall economic conditions very similar to what the history books tell us about the 1929-1936 period. The economy went down and kept on going down. Recoveries were short, followed by more free-fall. Social and political stress rose as the economy fell - but this wasn't the case in China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and other large and growing emerging economies, with a combined population two and a half times the population of the OECD group. In the "classic model" of economic collapse they should also have spun into recession.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
U.S. Economy is Adding Jobs, Fed Will Take a Pass at the March 13 FOMC Meeting / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.3% in February, unchanged from January. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0%, registered in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +227,000 jobs in February vs. +284,000 in January. Private sector jobs increased 233,000 after a gain of 285,000 in January. A net gain of 61,000 jobs due to revisions of payroll estimates of December and January.
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Friday, March 09, 2012
Mohamed El-Erian, U.S. Economy is 'Muddling Along' / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, spoke about the February U.S. jobs report and the European debt crisis on Bloomberg Television this morning. El-Erian said the economy is "muddling through" and that "one-off factors" have contributed to a recent stock market rally.
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Why Chinese Economy Won't Collapse, Premier Wen Real Story / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
According to Premier Wen Jiabao on Monday, China is only going to grow at 7.5% this year.
But this isn't the bombshell most Western analysts think it is-even though the markets sold off on the day and may continue their temper tantrum later this week.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2012
How Many New U.S. Jobs Are Necessary to Hit the Full Employment Mark? / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has created a jobs calculator which enables quick computations to answer this question. The Fed’s projection of the long-term unemployment rate is 5.2%-6.0%, published in January, and it is the jobless rate considered consistent with full employment. Let us consider these two rates and determine how many jobs have to be created each month to reach full employment. Plugging in a target of 5.2% jobless rate at the end of 48 months from today in the jobs calculator yields 188,341 (establishment survey) – 201,467 (household survey) new jobs per month as necessary to achieve this goal.
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