Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, January 18, 2014
The Deflation Beast Unleashed and Is Here To Stay / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The time has come. The Automatic Earth has been talking about the inevitability of deflation for years, but the concept only now goes mainstream. Which is a shame, because a lot could have been done to try and mitigate the damage it’s going to do.
Although it’s as inevitable as the laws of thermodynamics, the notion that record debts will always lead to record debt deflation is hardly discussed; you have Steve Keen, Mike Shedlock, and Nicole and yours truly here at The Automatic Earth, and that’s about it (I’m sure I miss one or two, apologies, but I can’t think of any). And although put together we have a reasonable readers base, blogs and websites are still no more than fringe sources compared to the main media where everyone lacks either the intelligence or the courage or both to even think about the notion, no matter how close its certainty may be to that of thermodynamics. They won’t have their world view disturbed by reality.
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Saturday, January 18, 2014
Global Economic Crisis: There is an App for that! / Economics / Global Economy
By: David_Hague
Dear reader, I am feeling optimistic today that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for our global economic crisis. To be sure it is not going to be straightforward or easy but it does show us a way out. Before I relieve your angst regarding the global economic crisis and share the change that will guide the world into a new economic renaissance, please indulge me and allow me to explain how I uncovered this optimistic vision of our future.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
How to Survive the Demographic Cliff and the Spending Wave / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
For today's Outside the Box, my longtime friend Harry Dent is letting us have a look at chapter 1 of his latest (and I would say his greatest) book, The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019. Harry's grasp of the impact of demographics on economies and investments is unexcelled and unambiguous. We all know that demographics really matter, but Harry has looked deeper and harder and understood better than any of us.
One of the key insights Harry brings to us is the concept of the Spending Wave. In other words, it's not just when you and the rest of your generation were born that matters, it's when you spend. At what age does your spending peak for housing or for child rearing or travel? Harry and his team have developed really good numbers on all of this, and from that data they have been able to consistently predict major macroeconomic trends. Harry summarizes the recent decades and the coming ones like this:
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Wednesday, January 15, 2014
China Becomes World's Largest Trading Nation Surpassing U.S. / Economics / Global Economy
By: BATR
The globalists put their plan into motion decades ago. The proper meaning of the headline is not that China is an economic miracle, but that the United States, systematically stripped of its industrial might, is destined to fall even further. The Chinese economy is a haven of direct transnational integration. The outsourcing of manufacturing from domestic capacity is not solely a response of cheaper economic cost of goods production. No, the underlying reason for the migration of product assemblage is to weaken an independent American economy.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Incompetent Bank of England Celebrates Inflation Success for 1 Month out of 50 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England and Coalition Government politicians were accompanied by hip hip hurray cheers right across the mainstream media as all were found celebrating the good news that the the Bank of England has achieved its primary remit for the targeting of 2% CPI Inflation for December 2013 data (RPI 2.7%, Real 3.6%), the first time the central bank has achieved its official target for the duration of the Coalition government as the CPI inflation rate has spent the whole of this parliament well above the target, ranging as high as 5.2% as illustrated by the graph below.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Job Exclusion in America: What Caused Crash In the Labor Participation Rate? / Economics / Employment
By: Washingtons_Blog
Workers May Simply Be Giving Up
Zero Hedge notes that the number of Americans in the labor force has dropped to 1978 levels:
Read full article... Read full article...The civilian labor force … dropped from 155.3 million to 154.9 million, which means the labor participation rate just dropped to a fresh 35 year low, hitting levels not seen since 1978, at 62.8% down from 63.0%.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll: A 50-Year Perspective / Economics / Employment
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Friday’s employment report generated a surge of economic commentaries focused on the unexpectedly low 74K increase in Nonfarm Employment. Forecasters were looking a number closer to 200K. The blogosphere exploded with a range of opinions, the more dramatic of which spoke of the “huge miss” in new jobs.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Clear Evidence That Fed QE Doesn’t Create U.S. Jobs / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
Over the last five years, the US Federal Reserve has substantially changed the investing landscape of the capital markets in the last 12 months. In particular we need to assess how ongoing QE programs affect notions of “risk” and rates.
In the period from March 2008 to late 2013, the Federal took a series of strategic steps to attempt to rein in the financial crisis and to support certain financial institutions that it deemed most critical to the health of the financial system.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Politicians Will Tell Us Hyperinflation is Necessary, Proper, Patriotic, and Ethical / Economics / HyperInflation
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Hyperinflation leads to the complete breakdown in the demand for a currency, which means simply that no one wishes to hold it. Everyone wants to get rid of that kind of money as fast as possible. Prices, denominated in the hyper-inflated currency, suddenly and dramatically go through the roof. The most famous examples, although there are many others, are Germany in the early 1920s and Zimbabwe just a few years ago. German Reichsmarks and Zim dollars were printed in million and even trillion unit denominations.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Pathetic December U.S. Job Numbers Proof 2014 Will Be a Challenging Year / Economics / US Economy
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: What happened?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that only 74,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in December. Most economists were expecting 200,000 jobs to be created in December—way off reality. The December increase in U.S. payrolls was the slowest pace in almost three years.
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Monday, January 13, 2014
Debt, Deficits, Demographics, Deleveraging and Deflation - Forecasting the Killer D's 2014 / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It seems I'm in a constant dialogue about the markets and the economy everywhere I go. Comes with the territory. Everyone wants to have some idea of what the future holds and how they can shape their own personal version of the future within the Big Picture. This weekly letter is a large part of that dialogue, and it's one that I get to share directly with you. Last week we started a conversation looking at what I think is the most positive and dynamic aspect of our collective future: The Human Transformation Revolution. By that term I mean the age of accelerating change in all manner of technologies and services that is unfolding before us. It is truly exhilarating to contemplate. Combine that revolution with the growing demand for a middle-class lifestyle in the emerging world, and you get a powerful engine for growth. In a simpler world we could just focus on those positives and ignore the fumbling of governments and central banks. Alas, the world is too complex for that.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Worst US Jobs Report in Three Years shatters Claims of Economic Recovery / Economics / Employment
By: Global_Research
Andre Damon writes: The US employment report for December, released Friday by the Labor Department, is a shattering exposure of the Obama administration’s claims that the US economy is in the midst of a recovery.
Just one day before, in announcing his “economic promise zones,” Obama had touted the so-called recovery, insisting, in the face of widespread disbelief among working people, that it was “real.” (See “Obama’s phony campaign against inequality”).
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Inflation via QE - The Malachi Crunch Continues 2014 / Economics / Inflation
By: Andy_Sutton
Those of you who have known me any length of time know that I love to say ‘they always tell you what they’re going to do’. I had a really scintillating discussion yesterday with two fellow economists as to why that might be and we’ll shelve that for now, but let’s just say this: ‘they’ are at it again. Last week I referenced an IMF working paper penned by Harvard dynamic duo Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart regarding asset confiscation and other ways to wiggle our way our the current economic morass that we find ourselves in. This week I’m going to perform a full dissection because there is material in there that you simply cannot go on without knowing if you expect to salvage even a shred of your financial state as it exists today.
Friday, January 10, 2014
U.S. Jobs Report – To Work or Not to Work, That is the Economic Question / Economics / Employment
By: PhilStockWorld
We're waiting on the Jobs Report.
I don't think it's going to matter, whether or not we employed more or less than the expected 200,000 new people in December doesn't matter as much as what we had to pay them. Hourly earnings are, so far, up 0.2% for the year and the average work-week for "employed" people is 34.5 hours and that's GOOD news for Corporation, who are spending 15% less per worker than they did in 2005.
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Friday, January 10, 2014
What Really Bothers Me About the So-Called U.S. Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: On the surface, the data suggest there’s economic growth in the U.S. economy. We hear that the unemployment rate is declining. Incomes in the U.S. economy are increasing. Consumers are buying more and more goods—as a result, we are going to see higher U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is intact...right?
Sadly, when I examine the details, I really question if this is all a mirage. Is there really economic growth in the U.S. economy?
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Thursday, January 09, 2014
China Economy to Dictate Global Monetary Policy, Currency and Commodity Prices? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
The recent credit crunch in China is due to PBOC’s (People's Bank Of China) or China's Central Bank refusal to act as the lender of last resort so as to help banks to get out from their financial mess. It also demonstrates that Central bank is willing to allow market forces to play a bigger role in the daily operations of the banks. This also means that banks will have to be on their own since PBOC has indicated that it will not be bailing them out anytime soon. As a result banks will have no choice but to be more conservative in their lending policies. What PBOC hope to achieve out of this?
Thursday, January 09, 2014
Knowledge and Power - The Need for a New Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In last week’s Thoughts from the Frontline I talked about the Age of Transformation, attempting to refute Robert’s Gordon rather stark and gloomy view of the future growth potential of the economy. That letter generated a rather significant amount of reader response, both pro and con, as not everyone agrees with my decidedly optimistic long-term view of the future. It might be fun and thought-provoking, in fact, to do a letter that deals with some of the issues you raised. I really do have some of the smartest readers of any economics and investing letter out there.
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Major Global Economic Themes for 2014 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Submissions
Ronan Keenan writes: This time last year, the majority of financial commentators held a downbeat outlook for the global economy in 2013. The potential for instability was seemingly high, but in reality it turned out that the greatest shock was a lack of any major shocks.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve reduced its monetary stimulus measures and stock markets actually rallied on the news. Unemployment fell to a five-year low of 7% and a government shutdown came and went without hysteria. An unfamiliar calm reigned over the eurozone through the year, resulting in a welcome decline in bond yields for the weaker “periphery” nations. China successfully reversed its slowing growth, while Japan’s extraordinary stimulus policies helped reinvigorate an economy that has suffered a quarter century of stagnation.
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Monday, January 06, 2014
Economic Indicators Pointing to Weaker U.S. Economic Growth in 2014 / Economics / US Economy
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: If the stock market is an indicator of U.S. economic health, then 2013 was a stellar year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out 2013 with a 26% gain. The S&P 500 was up 29%, while the NASDAQ Composite was up 34%.
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Sunday, January 05, 2014
The Minimum Wage Forces Low-Skill Workers to Compete with Higher-Skill Workers / Economics / Economic Theory
By: George_Reisman
The efforts underway by the Service Employees International Union, and its political and media allies, to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour would, if successful, cause major unemployment among low-skilled workers, who are the supposed beneficiaries of those efforts.