Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Navigating the Tidal Shifts in Myanmar / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Submissions
Keith Hilden, Georgi Ivanov, and Dylan Waller write: Developments of tidal proportions have occurred in Myanmar in recent years, as the country adopted a pivot in its domestic and foreign policy to re-engage with the world. This polar shift occurred after 50 years of isolation under the rule of a military junta that seized power in 1962. Navigating in Myanmar's quickly evolving position is a challenge, because of the dynamically developing environment in which the country finds itself. Myanmar is emerging from a situation similar to the newly independent post-colonial states in the mid-1900s, as well as the flux in which the post-Soviet space found itself after the collapse of the socialist bloc system and the USSR in 1989-91. Myanmar is developing while straddling two parallel realities.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Fed-induced Inflation - Pushing on a Rope or Lighting a Short Fuse / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Many regard the risk of inflation as low, since the Fed's money distribution or credit mechanism is limited by how the banks decide to lend. While credit worthy businesses and consumers are still de-leveraging, the transmission mechanism will eventually come. This will occur, for the most part, thanks to the Treasury.
So then how can the Fed push money into the economy?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 22, 2013
Economic Recovery Doubtful as New Survey Shows Manufacturing Downturn / Economics / US Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: After so many years following the Great Recession, it’s still quite astounding that job creation remains so slow. This obviously indicates the lack of economic growth, even after trillions of dollars have been pumped into the U.S. economy.
While there has been a lot of optimistic talk in the mainstream media, there have been an increasing number of data points indicating America’s economic growth is still very fragile.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 22, 2013
Today’s Wealth Destruction Is Hidden by Government Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: Philipp_Bagus
Still unnoticed by a large part of the population is that we have been living through a period of relative impoverishment. Money has been squandered in welfare spending, bailing out banks or even — as in Europe — of fellow governments. But many people still do not feel the pain.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Trickle Down Economic Recovery: Monetary Expansion, Excess Bank Reserves, and Leftovers For Main Street / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Jesse
“Trickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.” - John Kenneth Galbraith
"There are those who believe that if you just legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, that their prosperity will leak through on those below." - William Jennings Bryant
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Germany’s Dangerous Current Account Surplus / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: MISES
Frank Hollenbeck writes: The US government and the European Commission (EC) recently slammed Germany for running large current account surpluses. Paul Krugman jumped in with this beauty of a quote:
Read full article... Read full article...The problem is that Germany has continued to maintain highly competitive labor costs and run huge surpluses since the bubble burst — and that in a depressed world economy, this makes Germany a significant part of the problem.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
China's Next Baby Boom Will be a Boon for U.S. Business / Economics / Demographics
By: Profit_Confidential
George Leong writes:
There you have it; the latest great news out of China, I think, will help drive sales of some U.S. companies going forward.
The news? There are going to be more babies born in China over the foreseeable future. In a surprise and strategic move, the Communist Party of China decided it was time to increase its baby population and look towards the future of the country.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Perfect Storm Brewing for Ireland’s Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin writes: “We are now mainly borrowing to pay interest on the burgeoning national debt”[1]
While much has been made recently of Ireland’s exit from the punishing EU/IMF bailout programme, Michael Noonan, the Finance Minister, has welcomed post-bailout ‘surveillance’. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said Ireland would be subjected to ‘intensive surveillance’ “twice a year, but this would involve monitoring as supposed to new measures being imposed” because “under new European budgetary rules, countries leaving a bailout will be subject to extra attention until at least 75pc of the money owed is repaid.”[2]
Monday, November 18, 2013
Europe’s Bank Money Blues, Academics Declare War on Germany / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Well, it’s official, the economic talking head establishment has declared war on Germany. The opening shots in this battle were fired by none other than the United States Treasury Department, which had the audacity to blame Germany for a weak Eurozone recovery in its semi-annual foreign exchange report. The Treasury’s criticisms were echoed by IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, in a recent speech in Berlin — a speech so incendiary that the IMF opted to post the “original draft,” rather than his actual comments, on its website. Things were kicked into a full blitzkrieg when Paul Krugman penned his latest German-bashing New York Times column.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
New York's Skyscraper Curse Signaling Economic Crisis / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mark_Thornton
It is now official! New York City has won the title of having the nation’s tallest structure. The heated controversy between New York and Chicago was settled recently when the Council of Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (based in Chicago) decided that the 408-foot spire sitting atop the One World Trade Center could be included in the total height of the building.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
The End of German Hyperinflation - 90 Years Ago / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Thorsten_Polleit
On 15 November 1923 decisive steps were taken to end the nightmare of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic: The Reichsbank, the German central bank, stopped monetizing government debt, and a new means of exchange, the Rentenmark, was issued next to the Papermark (in German: Papiermark). These measures succeeded in halting hyperinflation, but the purchasing power of the Papermark was completely ruined. To understand how and why this could happen, one has to take a look at the time shortly before the outbreak of World War I.
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Venezuela’s House of Cards Inflation Trending Towards Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The story of the Venezuelan economy and its troubled currency, the bolivar, can be summed up with the following phrase: “From bad to worse”—over and over again. Yes, the ever deteriorating situation in Venezuela has taken yet another turn for the worse.
In a panicked, misguided response to the country’s economic woes, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has requested emergency powers over the economy. And the Maduro government recently announced plans to institute a new exchange rate for tourists in an attempt to quash arbitrage-driven currency smuggling.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 15, 2013
East African Infrastructure Development - The Northern Corridor / Economics / Africa
By: STRATFOR
SummaryEditor's Note: This is a four-part series on the development of transport infrastructure in East Africa. The region is looking to expand its economy and increase international trade as it becomes a seemingly attractive destination for low-end manufacturing. Part 2 examines how such economic growth will necessitate the expansion and improvement of the Northern Corridor transport route.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
The Language of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
My good friend Dylan Grice takes a very interesting tack in the latest issue of his Edelweiss Journal, today's Outside the Box. Rather than attacking our macroeconomic problems directly with economic tools, he approaches them from the point of view of what he calls a "subtle but significant devaluation of language." Now, you might think that the words we use to describe and understand the economy are not in themselves very powerful economic determinants, but Dylan lays out a convincing case to the contrary.
Dylan has fun with a Google app called Ngram Viewer, which allows users to search for the occurrence of words or phrases (or n-grams, which are combinations of letters) in 5.2 million books published between 1500 and 2008, containing 500 billion words, in American English, British English, French, German, Spanish, Russian, and Chinese.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
U.S. October Jobs Report Shows Labor Force Shrinks to 35-Year Low / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: Despite worries the 16-day government shutdown would weigh on job growth, the October jobs report was surprisingly strong.
That's what the government is reporting, anyway...
According to the Labor Department numbers released today (Friday), employers increased headcount by 204,000 in October, handily beating the 120,000 many economists expected. The government report also showed revisions to late summer numbers, revealing an extra 60,000 jobs total were created in August and September.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Europeans Looking To Inflate Their Debts Away / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Andrew Cullen writes: There was relatively good news for consumers in the Eurozone last week. Data released for the consumer price index (CPI) during October showed that the rate of inflation fell from 1.1 percent to 0.7 percent.
At a time when unemployment is high and increasing and taxation is on the rise, this brings some small relief to cash-strapped households whose real disposable incomes have been in decline for at least 5 years. It’s only a small relief. The CPI is designed in such a way as to deliberately exclude key consumer necessities like food and energy which, if included, would push the measured price inflation rate higher.
Monday, November 11, 2013
The Definitive Proof That QE is Not Effective At Creating Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: Graham_Summers
For over four years now, the mainstream media continues to parrot the Federal Reserve’s assertion that QE is in fact a monetary tool that will create jobs.
This assertion overlooks Japan, where QE efforts equal to over 25% of GDP have failed to improve the unemployment situation significantly, as well as the UK where QE efforts equal to over 20% of GDP have proven similarly ineffective.
Saturday, November 09, 2013
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report - Small Business Creation Boomed In October / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
Did new small business jobs creation boom in October during the government shutdown/default crisis?
Well, you might think so by looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics 'Birth-Death' model report contained in today's October Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
According to the Birth Death Adjustment there were 126,000 jobs added in October. And what an October it was apparently. These are the most new jobs added for any October going back to 2003, which is as far back as my own spreadsheet goes.
Friday, November 08, 2013
Deflation Rebuttal and Reich Hyper monetary inflation Economics / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
As introduction to this article on the bizarre nature of all things economic and financial within the Untied States, consider once again the Deflation Knuckleheads. Be sure to know that the Jackass considers Rick Ackerman to be one of the premier technical chart analysts in the world. He has taught me in the past from his T/A work, even as his hidden pivots are unique and enlightening. In 2011, we were at odds over the incessant errant ramblings about deflation and its great threat. In August of that year, the Jackass penned a public article in an attempt to clarify the inflation and deflation factors being simultaneous, not at all mutually exclusive or in some debated sequence. While respect is still high for Rick, he has misquoted me, not demonstrating the depth of knowledge concerning the incredibly difficult topic of inflation. The distortions run so deep on the topic, that even smart folks fail to comprehend. The syndicate desires such confusion. After trying to set the record straight two years ago, one more attempt is necessary. The respect for each other is mutual.
Thursday, November 07, 2013
U.S. Problem of Aging Infrastructure on Inland Waterways / Economics / Infrastructure
By: STRATFOR
The United States continues to face the problem of aging infrastructure on major water-based transport routes. A new waterways bill that is likely to be finalized soon -- the first such legislation since 2007 -- addresses some of the inefficiencies in the current system. However, the larger looming problem of insufficient funding remains. The U.S. inland waterways infrastructure is old, much-needed improvements have been delayed and the total cost of rehabilitation is expected to rise