Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Venezuela’s House of Cards Inflation Trending Towards Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The story of the Venezuelan economy and its troubled currency, the bolivar, can be summed up with the following phrase: “From bad to worse”—over and over again. Yes, the ever deteriorating situation in Venezuela has taken yet another turn for the worse.
In a panicked, misguided response to the country’s economic woes, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has requested emergency powers over the economy. And the Maduro government recently announced plans to institute a new exchange rate for tourists in an attempt to quash arbitrage-driven currency smuggling.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
East African Infrastructure Development - The Northern Corridor / Economics / Africa
By: STRATFOR
SummaryEditor's Note: This is a four-part series on the development of transport infrastructure in East Africa. The region is looking to expand its economy and increase international trade as it becomes a seemingly attractive destination for low-end manufacturing. Part 2 examines how such economic growth will necessitate the expansion and improvement of the Northern Corridor transport route.
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Wednesday, November 13, 2013
The Language of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
My good friend Dylan Grice takes a very interesting tack in the latest issue of his Edelweiss Journal, today's Outside the Box. Rather than attacking our macroeconomic problems directly with economic tools, he approaches them from the point of view of what he calls a "subtle but significant devaluation of language." Now, you might think that the words we use to describe and understand the economy are not in themselves very powerful economic determinants, but Dylan lays out a convincing case to the contrary.
Dylan has fun with a Google app called Ngram Viewer, which allows users to search for the occurrence of words or phrases (or n-grams, which are combinations of letters) in 5.2 million books published between 1500 and 2008, containing 500 billion words, in American English, British English, French, German, Spanish, Russian, and Chinese.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2013
U.S. October Jobs Report Shows Labor Force Shrinks to 35-Year Low / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: Despite worries the 16-day government shutdown would weigh on job growth, the October jobs report was surprisingly strong.
That's what the government is reporting, anyway...
According to the Labor Department numbers released today (Friday), employers increased headcount by 204,000 in October, handily beating the 120,000 many economists expected. The government report also showed revisions to late summer numbers, revealing an extra 60,000 jobs total were created in August and September.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Europeans Looking To Inflate Their Debts Away / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Andrew Cullen writes: There was relatively good news for consumers in the Eurozone last week. Data released for the consumer price index (CPI) during October showed that the rate of inflation fell from 1.1 percent to 0.7 percent.
At a time when unemployment is high and increasing and taxation is on the rise, this brings some small relief to cash-strapped households whose real disposable incomes have been in decline for at least 5 years. It’s only a small relief. The CPI is designed in such a way as to deliberately exclude key consumer necessities like food and energy which, if included, would push the measured price inflation rate higher.
Monday, November 11, 2013
The Definitive Proof That QE is Not Effective At Creating Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: Graham_Summers
For over four years now, the mainstream media continues to parrot the Federal Reserve’s assertion that QE is in fact a monetary tool that will create jobs.
This assertion overlooks Japan, where QE efforts equal to over 25% of GDP have failed to improve the unemployment situation significantly, as well as the UK where QE efforts equal to over 20% of GDP have proven similarly ineffective.
Saturday, November 09, 2013
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report - Small Business Creation Boomed In October / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
Did new small business jobs creation boom in October during the government shutdown/default crisis?
Well, you might think so by looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics 'Birth-Death' model report contained in today's October Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
According to the Birth Death Adjustment there were 126,000 jobs added in October. And what an October it was apparently. These are the most new jobs added for any October going back to 2003, which is as far back as my own spreadsheet goes.
Friday, November 08, 2013
Deflation Rebuttal and Reich Hyper monetary inflation Economics / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
As introduction to this article on the bizarre nature of all things economic and financial within the Untied States, consider once again the Deflation Knuckleheads. Be sure to know that the Jackass considers Rick Ackerman to be one of the premier technical chart analysts in the world. He has taught me in the past from his T/A work, even as his hidden pivots are unique and enlightening. In 2011, we were at odds over the incessant errant ramblings about deflation and its great threat. In August of that year, the Jackass penned a public article in an attempt to clarify the inflation and deflation factors being simultaneous, not at all mutually exclusive or in some debated sequence. While respect is still high for Rick, he has misquoted me, not demonstrating the depth of knowledge concerning the incredibly difficult topic of inflation. The distortions run so deep on the topic, that even smart folks fail to comprehend. The syndicate desires such confusion. After trying to set the record straight two years ago, one more attempt is necessary. The respect for each other is mutual.
Thursday, November 07, 2013
U.S. Problem of Aging Infrastructure on Inland Waterways / Economics / Infrastructure
By: STRATFOR
The United States continues to face the problem of aging infrastructure on major water-based transport routes. A new waterways bill that is likely to be finalized soon -- the first such legislation since 2007 -- addresses some of the inefficiencies in the current system. However, the larger looming problem of insufficient funding remains. The U.S. inland waterways infrastructure is old, much-needed improvements have been delayed and the total cost of rehabilitation is expected to rise
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
The ECB Ignores The Threat Of Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Andrew_McKillop
DEFLATION NOW – HYPERINFLATION SOON
What the market expects from Mario Draghi is more of the same QE. The shock fall in annual eurozone inflation to an official rate of just 0.7% in October put the spotlight back on the European Central Bank and its equally-official “target rate” of inflation, of 2%. But Mario Draghi has shown almost no interest in the subject except for one-liners such as: "You can buy more stuff” when inflation is low or zero, his reply to journalists' questions in a June interview on his unsurprising announcement that QE would continue “but didn't seem to be working”.
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
Inflation Has Not Cured Iceland’s Economic Problems / Economics / Inflation
By: David_Howden
No two countries’ responses have polarized commentators over the past five years more than the contrasting post-crisis policies in Iceland and Ireland.
In a paper published in Economic Affairs (available here as a PDF) I contrast the policies enacted by Iceland and Ireland, perhaps the two countries most affected by the liquidity freeze of 2008. A common conclusion has been that one country did everything right and the other did everything wrong, however, I take a more pragmatic approach. There are some positive aspects in each case, and other aspects we can do without.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2013
China World Bank Rankings That Rankle / Economics / China Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The World Bank has been producing its annual “Doing Business” report since 2004 and its 2014 edition ranking Hong Kong second out of 189 economies surveyed, in contrast to mainland China’s score of 96, hardly seems controversial.
Its rankings of 10 factors reflecting the ease with which entrepreneurs and businesses may conduct economic activity in a given economy offer an unbiased way of looking at business.
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Friday, November 01, 2013
Why U.S. Consumer Confidence is Falling at an Alarming Rate / Economics / US Economy
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Consumer spending is very critical to the U.S. economy, as it makes up a significant portion of the gross domestic product (GDP). If consumer spending declines, then U.S. GDP growth becomes very questionable; when it increases, it can provide an idea about where the U.S. economy is heading.
I look at consumer confidence as one of the indicators of consumer spending. The logic behind this is that if consumers are confident, they will most likely spend more, compared to when they are pessimistic.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
Is Hyperinflation a Real Threat to the U.S. Economy? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: One of the questions being asked by investors these days is “where’s the inflation?” After the financial crisis and the fall of Lehman Brothers, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government stepped in to help the financial system. As a result, they promised to print money, and thus quantitative easing was born. Banks received billions of dollars in bailout money.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
A Long-Term Look at Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: The October 2013 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released today puts the September year-over-year inflation rate at 1.18%, less than third the 3.90% average since the end of the Second World War and 51% lower than its 10-year moving average.
For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
Documenting the U.S. Federal Reserves Monetary and Economic Failures / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
In their third-quarter Review and Outlook – today's Outside the Box – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington get right down to telling us why the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program is doomed to failure. (This is a thesis that is dear to my heart, since coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I explore it at length in our just-released book, Code Red.) The Fed scrambled hard and came up with some extraordinary measures to keep the global economy more or less in one piece as the Great Recession unfolded. They had to act fast, and they did; but five years down the road, with sovereign debt balloons swollen near to bursting worldwide, with markets in advanced and emerging nations alike swooning at the mere mention of the word tapering, and with the threat of a major global currency war staring us right in the face, the Fed may have just about r eached the end of its rope. But let's let Lacy and Van explain:
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Bernanke vs. Yellen: A Spooky Economic Outlook? / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Axel_Merk
Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen will take over where her predecessor Ben Bernanke leaves off. Not just operationally, but also philosophically. To understand where the Fed and the U.S. dollar may be heading, we take a closer look at where Bernanke and Yellen are coming from.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
New Retirement Trend: One-Third of Americans Need to Work Until 80 / Economics / Pensions & Retirement
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: According to the just-released annual Wells Fargo & Company Middle Class Retirement Study, about 60% of middle-class Americans say that getting monthly bills paid is their top concern. This number stood at 52% in the 2012 study. (Source: Wells Fargo & Company, October 23, 2013.)
But there are more depressing results of the survey…
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Four Years of Economic Recovery, So Why Don’t You Feel Richer? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Clif_Droke
Statistics can sometimes, as we all know, be very misleading. Take the unemployment report for example. If you examine the numbers out of context, you'd be forced to conclude that workforce participation has steadily increased over the last four years. A behind-the-scenes look at those numbers, however, reveals a startling discovery: most of those gains have occurred because job seekers have simply given up looking for a job.
Monday, October 28, 2013
Economies are Not Destroyed in a Day / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Nicolás Cachanosky writes: Earlier this month, Argentina's leading conservative paper, La Nación published an unsigned editorial comparing the economies of Argentina and Venezuela. The editorial concluded that as economic freedom declines in Argentina, and as Argentina adopts more of what Chavez called “twenty-first century socialism,” it is becoming increasingly similar to Venezuela. Is this true? Will Argentina suffer the same fate as Venezuela where poverty is increasing and toilet paper can be a luxury?