Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
UK Accelerating Economic Boom, GDP 1.9% 2013, 4% 2014? Conservative Election Win? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest ONS UK GDP data showed strong growth for Q4 that lifted annual GDP for 2013 to 1.9%, the fastest growth rate since 2007, and up from the 0.3% of 2012 and that many economists had convinced themselves that the UK was heading for a triple dip recession during 2013.
The UK economy risks suffering from a triple-dip recession amid a period of persistently low growth that will last until the next election, the governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King warned - Nov 2012.
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Monday, January 27, 2014
Economic Growths False Paradigm / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Raymond Matison writes: With pressing economic, banking, and systemic financial problems the world over, leaders of advanced nations both in Europe and in America are calling for programs to resume growth. President Obama in a recent State of the Union message proposed to reinvigorate growth in the US by doubling exports over the next several years. Prime minister Abe of Japan was a keynote speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos his January outlining the need to rejuvenate growth. Japan has been vigorously increasing its money supply and depressing interest rates in order to promote the growth of its exports and GDP. Government leaders seek growth as the universal answer for maintaining government solvency as well as citizen prosperity, and it seems that no government leader anywhere in the world seeks less growth. Yet few have really considered recently whether growth is the promised panacea of nations and its citizens. This article raises reasonable questions regarding such policy and its desirability.
Friday, January 24, 2014
Argentina in Bad Economic Shape Again - Debt Rattle 2014 / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Argentina is once again in very bad shape. It rose out of the ashes of its 2002 crisis, when it went through presidents like they were popsicles, and large swaths of the middle class ended up living in Villa Miseria shanty towns around Buenos Aires, but it did so through issuing debt. So there we go again.
The no. 1 problem, again, is the lack of foreign reserves. How the country can escape its fate this time is hard to see. People have kept storing their wealth abroad, afraid as they were for the very thing that now happens; a little self fulfilling, one might say. The cost of borrowing shot up, prices for its export products, meat, soy, wheat, plunged, et voila, the squid’s your uncle!
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Thursday, January 23, 2014
More of the Same From the Keynesians in 2014 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Harry Goslin writes: The first rule I teach my economics students is that when the economy fails, it’s usually safe to blame the government. To paraphrase Winston Smith in 1984: If we accept that the state is the source of economic misery, “all else follows.”
As a science, economics is really not that difficult because it encompasses decisions we make every day that impact our well-being and the well-being of those around us.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Russia's Growing Regional Debts Threaten Economic Stability / Economics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
Editor's Note: The following is the first installment of a three-part series on growing debt for Russia's regional governments.
Since the 2009 financial crisis, the Kremlin has allowed Russia's regions to take the brunt of the country's economic decline in order to keep the federal government seemingly healthy, with a nominally small budget deficit and large currency reserves. But now most of Russia's regional governments' debt is so high, it is becoming dangerous for the federal government and big banks and could soon become unmanageable.
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Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Welfare, Minimum Wages, and Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment
By: LewRockwell
Gregory Morin writes: Of the various flavors of government interventionism in our lives, the minimum wage is perhaps the most welcomed. It appeals not only to our innate sense of “fairness” but also to our self-interest. Its allure may erroneously lead us to the conclusion that because “it is popular,” ergo “it is right.”
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Ben Bernanke’s Monetary Mess / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Most who have graded Prof. Ben Bernanke’s twelve years at the Federal Reserve have issued marks which range from A to a gentleman’s C. I think those marks are much too generous. Indeed, I think a failing mark would be more appropriate.
In the ramp up to Britain’s Northern Rock bank run in 2007 and the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in September 2008, Bernanke and the Fed created a classic aggregate demand bubble: when final sales to domestic purchasers – a good proxy for aggregate demand – surge well above the trend rate of growth consistent with modest inflation. The Fed also facilitated the spawning of many market-specific bubbles in the housing, equity, and commodity markets. True to form, Fed officials have steadfastly denied any culpability for creating the bubbles that so spectacularly burst during the Panic of 2008-09.
Monday, January 20, 2014
The Retail Economic Death Rattle / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” ― Emile Gauvreau
If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.
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Saturday, January 18, 2014
Why Central Bankers Should Not Tinker with Aggregate Prices / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Frank Hollenbeck writes: In November, the ECB (European Central Bank) surprised the markets by dropping its refinancing rate to 0.25 percent to avoid dreaded deflation, and announced it seeks to keep “price growth steady at about 2 percent” which is obviously a target and not a ceiling. Recently-tame inflation data is “worrisome” for many economists and has increased calls for the ECB to be even more aggressive. Central bankers and economists remain committed to the idea that the economy can be managed by manipulating prices in the aggregate.
Saturday, January 18, 2014
Demographic Cliff Great Deflation - Harry Dent on How to Prosper in the Coming Downturn / Economics / Deflation
By: The_Gold_Report
There's little happy talk in Harry Dent's new book, "The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014–2019," yet the author sees incredible opportunities for the investors and businesses that see this crisis coming. The founder of Dent Research relies strongly on demographic statistics and trends to predict a crash starting in early 2014 and lasting into 2015 or 2016, which will make 2008 look like a mere tumble. In this interview with The Gold Report, he delves into the economic implications of Baby Boomers aging around the world, and discusses strategies for investors to protect themselves.
Saturday, January 18, 2014
A Glimpse into the Coming Economic Collapse / Economics / Global Economy
By: Casey_Research
By Jeff Thomas, International Man
Beginning in 1999, we predicted a systemic economic collapse that would take place in the First World and would impact all other economies. We began to list some of the "dominoes" that would fall as the collapse evolved and described that the "Great Unravelling," as we termed it, would take roughly ten years. At that time, we guesstimated that the first two of the dominoes, a real estate crash and subsequent stock market crash in the US, would begin in about 2005.
Saturday, January 18, 2014
The Deflation Beast Unleashed and Is Here To Stay / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The time has come. The Automatic Earth has been talking about the inevitability of deflation for years, but the concept only now goes mainstream. Which is a shame, because a lot could have been done to try and mitigate the damage it’s going to do.
Although it’s as inevitable as the laws of thermodynamics, the notion that record debts will always lead to record debt deflation is hardly discussed; you have Steve Keen, Mike Shedlock, and Nicole and yours truly here at The Automatic Earth, and that’s about it (I’m sure I miss one or two, apologies, but I can’t think of any). And although put together we have a reasonable readers base, blogs and websites are still no more than fringe sources compared to the main media where everyone lacks either the intelligence or the courage or both to even think about the notion, no matter how close its certainty may be to that of thermodynamics. They won’t have their world view disturbed by reality.
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Saturday, January 18, 2014
Global Economic Crisis: There is an App for that! / Economics / Global Economy
By: David_Hague
Dear reader, I am feeling optimistic today that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for our global economic crisis. To be sure it is not going to be straightforward or easy but it does show us a way out. Before I relieve your angst regarding the global economic crisis and share the change that will guide the world into a new economic renaissance, please indulge me and allow me to explain how I uncovered this optimistic vision of our future.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
How to Survive the Demographic Cliff and the Spending Wave / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
For today's Outside the Box, my longtime friend Harry Dent is letting us have a look at chapter 1 of his latest (and I would say his greatest) book, The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019. Harry's grasp of the impact of demographics on economies and investments is unexcelled and unambiguous. We all know that demographics really matter, but Harry has looked deeper and harder and understood better than any of us.
One of the key insights Harry brings to us is the concept of the Spending Wave. In other words, it's not just when you and the rest of your generation were born that matters, it's when you spend. At what age does your spending peak for housing or for child rearing or travel? Harry and his team have developed really good numbers on all of this, and from that data they have been able to consistently predict major macroeconomic trends. Harry summarizes the recent decades and the coming ones like this:
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Wednesday, January 15, 2014
China Becomes World's Largest Trading Nation Surpassing U.S. / Economics / Global Economy
By: BATR
The globalists put their plan into motion decades ago. The proper meaning of the headline is not that China is an economic miracle, but that the United States, systematically stripped of its industrial might, is destined to fall even further. The Chinese economy is a haven of direct transnational integration. The outsourcing of manufacturing from domestic capacity is not solely a response of cheaper economic cost of goods production. No, the underlying reason for the migration of product assemblage is to weaken an independent American economy.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Incompetent Bank of England Celebrates Inflation Success for 1 Month out of 50 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England and Coalition Government politicians were accompanied by hip hip hurray cheers right across the mainstream media as all were found celebrating the good news that the the Bank of England has achieved its primary remit for the targeting of 2% CPI Inflation for December 2013 data (RPI 2.7%, Real 3.6%), the first time the central bank has achieved its official target for the duration of the Coalition government as the CPI inflation rate has spent the whole of this parliament well above the target, ranging as high as 5.2% as illustrated by the graph below.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Job Exclusion in America: What Caused Crash In the Labor Participation Rate? / Economics / Employment
By: Washingtons_Blog
Workers May Simply Be Giving Up
Zero Hedge notes that the number of Americans in the labor force has dropped to 1978 levels:
Read full article... Read full article...The civilian labor force … dropped from 155.3 million to 154.9 million, which means the labor participation rate just dropped to a fresh 35 year low, hitting levels not seen since 1978, at 62.8% down from 63.0%.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll: A 50-Year Perspective / Economics / Employment
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Friday’s employment report generated a surge of economic commentaries focused on the unexpectedly low 74K increase in Nonfarm Employment. Forecasters were looking a number closer to 200K. The blogosphere exploded with a range of opinions, the more dramatic of which spoke of the “huge miss” in new jobs.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Clear Evidence That Fed QE Doesn’t Create U.S. Jobs / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
Over the last five years, the US Federal Reserve has substantially changed the investing landscape of the capital markets in the last 12 months. In particular we need to assess how ongoing QE programs affect notions of “risk” and rates.
In the period from March 2008 to late 2013, the Federal took a series of strategic steps to attempt to rein in the financial crisis and to support certain financial institutions that it deemed most critical to the health of the financial system.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Politicians Will Tell Us Hyperinflation is Necessary, Proper, Patriotic, and Ethical / Economics / HyperInflation
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Hyperinflation leads to the complete breakdown in the demand for a currency, which means simply that no one wishes to hold it. Everyone wants to get rid of that kind of money as fast as possible. Prices, denominated in the hyper-inflated currency, suddenly and dramatically go through the roof. The most famous examples, although there are many others, are Germany in the early 1920s and Zimbabwe just a few years ago. German Reichsmarks and Zim dollars were printed in million and even trillion unit denominations.