Thursday, May 09, 2019

S&P 500 3000 First and Then…? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

When I last wrote on April 26th, I was looking for a move above 2960. We tagged 2954 on May 1 and then pulled back to 2862 on May 7th. The SPX fell into a rising channel formation and declined to go below 2860, which means to me we have one more rally left before we see a more significant decline later in May and early June.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

Trade Negotiation in Jeopardy After China Reneged its Commitment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Summary

• The odds of trade war escalation rises after Trump sent a pair of tweets threatening to increase tariffs to Chinese goods.
• If there is no deal by this Friday, the tariffs to Chinese goods will rise to 25% from 10% on $300 billion. Additional $325 billion of Chinese goods will also get 25% tariff.
• The rapid deterioration is due to the reversal of China’s commitment to address the U.S. core complaints.
• U.S companies with huge presence and sales in China, like Apple, can suffer if there’s trade war escalation.
• Elliott Wave Analysis on Apple suggests another major correction can happen.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

Gold Miners’ Strength – What If It Isn’t Just a Bluff? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The stock market took a dive, and gold with silver barely moved higher. Miners had little reason to rally, especially that they have been underperforming gold for many days now. And yet, gold stocks and silver stocks moved visibly higher. What if it isn’t just a bluff? What if it’s the first sign that the near-term bottom is already in?

Well, if this is the case, then the upside for the miners is very limited.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

Gold Market Investors Subliminal Capitulation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger suggests investors "never underestimate the replacement power of stocks within a Fed-induced credit bubble" and provides other observations on the markets. Looking back at the events of last week, the S&P 500 finally took out the October highs at 2,941 intraday, making the 2018 bear market one of the shortest on record at 93 days (Sept. 21–Dec. 24). You will recall that I wrote in early January that the action of the Santa Claus rally (positive) and the action of the First Five Days rule (positive) was finally confirmed by the January Indicator (positive), setting up new highs for 2019 (which was right). I also said that I expected a retest of the December lows (wrong) and a pullback from the 200 daily moving average (dma) in February (wrong) and that Goldman Sachs was headed back to $150 (wrong) (at least so far).

Look at these charts. Can any of you honestly see any difference? They both reek of intervention but the only difference is that the one from 2009 has now had books and movies written about it. We know that no one went to jail over the causes of the crash, and we know that the method used by the central bankers to correct the problem (which was to take in all of the toxic paper that was rotting their balance sheets) resulted in more debt creation ($14 trillion worth). This was exactly the root of the 2018 problem because as soon as they tried to remove the 2009 "bandaid,"they were catapulted right back to 2009. Stocks were simply gravitating back to their old trajectory before the Fed/Treasury bailout temporarily saved the stock market. What we got last Christmas Eve was the same bailout as in 2009, but it came about before people started to lose jobs and homes. The "V-bottom"turns in 2009 and in 2019 are identical, and emanated from interventions of the highest order and priority.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration.

The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves, including any gold in ‘deep storage,’ of the United States at the place or places where such reserves are kept.”

Thursday, May 09, 2019

Bitcoin Setting Up For Another Drop / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last year just days before the big Bitcoin breakdown we notified everyone publicly to get ready for a swift drop from $6000 to $4000 which played out perfectly within a few days. Our cycle system and technical analysis skills combined can pack a powerful punch and this one of those incredible moves where the stars aligned for us as traders.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

What you need to know about the PDT rule / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

One of the most ignored subjects in stock trading is the PDT rule. However, it is unimaginable how the rule can get you into trouble especially if you are not ready to meet the basic requirements.  In this article, we are going to break down what a PDT is and the rules that govern pattern day trading.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

May 10th 2019 - A Big Day for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

This Friday (May 10th 2019) TRUMPs red line on the China trade talk will move stocks. Will trends break?

readtheticker.com correlation Period Scan tool suggest it will be either OutPut1 or OutPut2. Of course correlation is not causation, but a equity market trend of 10 years may soon find its end.

95% correlation scans are always interesting.

Thursday, May 09, 2019

How Arya Stark Became the Night King Killer - Game of Thrones / Personal_Finance / Social Media

By: Sami_Walayat

Arya Stark's progression through Game of Thrones from Season 1 right through to her Season 8's stealthy assassination of the Night King! And there's still at least Cersi to come !

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Trump Bashes Political Correctness, Gold Rush Mascot Banned as Offensive / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The roller coaster presidency of Donald Trump is currently riding high as the stock market races back up to new highs, economic data come in better than expected, and Congressional Democrats’ endless investigations come up empty handed.

Trump’s approval rating recently hit 50% at the same time as CNN’s ratings are tanking.

Over the weekend, President Trump sent CNN and the rest of the “MSM” (mainstream media) into a tizzy by speaking out against the latest Big Tech purge of “far right” voices.

Trump re-tweeted verboten alternative media personalities including Paul Joseph Watson and Lauren Southern.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

How Fed Interest Rate Cycles Exponentially Reduce Long Term Wealth Creation / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Dan_Amerman

The most historically reliable way to create long term wealth is the reinvestment of cash flows over time, as earnings are earned on earnings, which are earned on earnings.

Compound interest is the best known example, but the same principle of compounding cash flows is also the most powerful and stable source of wealth with the stocks and real estate over the long term as well.

Reinvested (and increasing) dividends are a more important and stable source of stock market wealth than price gains.  Reinvested (and increasing) net cash flows are the most stable and important source of wealth with real estate and REIT investments as well.

However, what was taken for granted for many decades - is no longer available. As a result of Federal Reserve policies, only a small fraction of the historically average power of this wealth building engine still remains. In this analysis we will examine the mathematical implications of publicly stated Fed intentions if there is another recession, and look at the extraordinary implications for investors.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Do the Crude Oil Bulls Have Any Aces Left Up Their Sleeves? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil has had an eventful session yesterday. It has closed the opening gap and the bulls have been building upon their gains till the session’s close. Earlier today however, the price appears to be rolling over and heading south. Is all hope for higher oil lost? The bulls have shown to be quite tireless. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hats shortly?

Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Average UK House Prices Dragged Down by Decline in Capital / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Submissions

Over recent years, house prices in the UK have fluctuated quite significantly. There has been some positive news of late, with house prices across the country increasing by 0.6 percent over the year. However, house prices declined in the South East and London, which resulted in the UK average house price falling.
 
According to figures, performance in London was the worst in a decade. However, despite the falling property prices, it is still the most expensive place to buy property in the UK. The South East and East of England are the second and third most expensive places to purchase residential property. Figures show that house prices in London have fallen at the fastest pace since 2009. 

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

NVIDIA - NVDA - TOP 10 AI Stocks Investing / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Mueller Never Wanted The Truth / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Zero Hedge ran an article about omissions from the Mueller report and/or investigation. It’s instructive, but there is more. First, some bits from that article:

Major Mueller Report Omissions Suggest Incompetence Or A Coverup

Robert Mueller’s 448-page “Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election” contains at least two major omissions which suggest that the special counsel and his entire team of world-class Democrat attorneys are either utterly incompetent, or purposefully concealing major crimes committed against the Trump campaign and the American people.

First, according to The Federalist’s Margot Cleveland (a former law clerk of nearly 25 years and instructor at the college of business at the University of Notre Dame) – the Mueller report fails to consider whether the dossier authored by former MI6 spy Christopher Steele was Russian disinformation, and Steele was not charged with lying to the FBI.

“The Steele dossier, which consisted of a series of memorandum authored by the former MI6 spy, detailed intel purportedly provided by a variety of Vladimir Putin-connected sources. For instance, Steele identified Source A as “a senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure” who “confided that the Kremlin had been feeding Trump and his team valuable intelligence on his opponents, including Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.”

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

UK Interest-only Mortgage Prodcuts Double but Approvals Fall / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the number of interest-only mortgage products has almost doubled over the past six years, rising from 102 products in May 2013 to 193 products today. However, this increase in products has not led to a greater number of approvals of this type of product.

Figures released by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Bank of England show that approvals for interest-only mortgages have fallen from 26,592 in Q1 2013 to 24,148 in Q4 2018*. This decrease comes despite overall residential mortgage approvals nearly doubling over the same period, from 183,900 to 323,700.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

US Stock Markets Could Rally Beyond Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Late Sunday afternoon, President Trump surprised the global markets with the announcement of increased trade tariffs with China relating to the ongoing trade negotiations and delayed trade talks between the two global superpowers. The global markets reacted immediately upon the open Sunday night (Asian open). The VIX short position puts quite a bit of professional traders at risk of big losses today while those of us that were prepared for an increase in volatility and price rotation is poised for some incredible opportunities.

The US stock market is set up for a price move that will likely make many people very wealthy while frustrating many others over the next few months.  We’ve recently posted many articles regarding the 2020 US Presidential election cycle and the fear cycle that comes from these major political events.  In November 2016, we remember watching Gold rally $60 early in the election night, then fall $100 as news began reporting the surprise winner.  There is so much capital, and future capital expectations that ride on these election cycles – it can actually drive the markets in one direction or another.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Will Katie Hopkins Stand for BrExit Party in Elections After Helping Destroy UKIP? / Politics / UK Politics

By: N_Walayat

Katie Hopkins darling of the far right latest tweets are alluding to her preparing to make the leap from UKIP to the Brexit Party. After all UKIP effectively died in the local elections, so a case of mission accomplished for the Trojan Horse that are Katie Hopkins and Tommy Robinson, who successfully turned what should have been a UKIP local elections victory in the wake of Westminster Brexit chaos into an even worse performance than that of the Tories, by losing more than 80% of their councilors to end the night down 145 councilors with just 31 left. A TOTAL DISASTER!

Which should not come as much surprise to those who follow my analysis as I forewarned what to expect in electoral terms of the impact of Trojan Horse right win fanatics for the fundamental fact is that elections are won at the margins and not by preaching extreme messages to die hard supporters as they would have voted for UKIP regardless.

29 Mar 2019 - UK INDEPENDENCE DAY CANCELLED! As Westminster SUBVERTS BREXIT!

Brexit Master Nigel Farage understands this which is why he will storm the European elections by winning at least 25 seats! Literally going from nothing to 25+ seats all within a couple of months of the launch of his Brexit Party! A true electoral genius, who unlike the idiot in charge of UKIP understands that the likes of Katie Hopkins and Tommy Robinson are toxic to political parties.

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

This FinTech Stock Is Like Buying Square At $13 / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Submissions

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

Waiting for Double Bottom Support in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Several weeks ago we wrote about the downside risk in the gold stocks.

After the various gold stock indices formed distribution-type tops, the subsequent selling has been swift. Miners have plunged through moving averages and short-term breadth indicators quickly reached oversold extremes.

While the gold stocks are oversold, it could be a little while before we can expect a sustained rebound.

We plot GDX below along with the percentage of HUI stocks that closed above the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. (The HUI is essentially GDX sans royalty companies).