Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The stock market fell in capitulation on Monday, a ‘c’ of “z” type wave that got everyone beared-up. Monday was the 16 TD low and could be the 20 week low as well (94 trading days of the 100 trading day low 15 trading days). The ten week went 49/50 trading days in early March, which is normal. As of Monday we saw 44/45 trading days, which could complete a 10/20 week low pattern (at least 2 ten week patterns).The Dow 30 looks to have made a possible xyz type of B wave bull flag Monday (at least it could be viewed that way by traders). The Dow topped on April 23rd where the SPX topped on May 1, 6 trading days later, making a “b” wave for the Dow, but an irregular “y” wave top for the SPX. It is possible from this configuration that we could see a strong wave of buying into May 21st and then a hard drop into June 5th (110 trading days and 16 trading days from May 13th).
So, we are not out of the woods just yet. My preferred count is a strong rally into early July from May 13th then down into late Sept/early October. The normal 4-year cycle has the July top late in the month or even in early August. For this to happen, we need another big drop like Jan-Feb 2018 from May 21-June 5 to finish Wave B. The reason is, C would = A in time in price. This is called the Equality of Waves Principle.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports / Commodities / Rare Earths
By: Richard_Mills
On Friday the United States made good on its threat to ratchet up the trade war against China, after the two parties failed, after weeks of negotiations, to reach a deal.
The Trump administration hiked tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, adding to the $50 billion in goods already being taxed at that level. The tariff hikes went into effect at midnight on Thursday.
The negotiations appeared to be going well up until a couple of days ago, when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer accused the Chinese of reneging on earlier commitments.
Nobody outside the trade delegations knows what went on behind closed doors in Washington, but it appears to us that the American team just got played. Dealing with China, or other Asian nations for that matter, is different from negotiating with fellow North Americans, or Europeans. It’s important to come across as respectful, and calm. Shrewdness is valued. Bluster and strong-arming are frowned upon.
Chinese negotiators will seldom agree to the first draft of a deal; the more common practice is to go back on what was discussed and amend the agreement, knowing full well that the other side won’t accept. But that’s ok. Like a chess game, the Chinese delegation was likely awaiting the next US move. Instead the American delegation slammed its fist on the chess board, immediately ending the game.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on the effects of Twitter and political maneuvers on the markets, and specifically on a favorite gold explorer.
I have a confession to make: There are no free markets anymore; there are only interventions. Of course, I bow to Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) cofounder Chris Powell, who coined that brilliant phrase a few years ago, because it was certainly my exposure to GATA in 2005 that changed my perception of the insidious role of the bullion banks in controlling price and sentiment.
That, in fact, has since been expanded to include not just gold and silver but LIBOR, Fed funds, corporate bonds and, finally, stocks. The delivery method used to be one of the hired mouthpieces on CNBC, like former reporters Charlie Gasparino or Maria Bartiromo, but both have moved on and were replaced not by reporters with a "scoop," but rather central bank governors themselves. This has been the case for most of the pre- and post-global financial crisis period—up until the election of the current president, who has, along with several cabinet members such as Larry Kudlow and Smilin' Stevie Mnuchin, discovered that sending out messages to either roil or calm markets is best carried out via Twitter.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
An unexpected news event caused the stock market to plunge over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrials losing several hundred points. Stocks had been crawling back up toward new highs last month in low volatility trading…until suddenly, a black swan arrived.
According to Investopedia, “A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.”
In the current era, a black swan can arrive by way of a simple tweet.
President Donald Trump took to Twitter to announce his administration would impose new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Friday while threatening an additional 25% levy on Chinese exports “shortly.”
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Attempt to Repair Yesterday’s Damage / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
We have seen a pretty sharp oil reversal yesterday. The U.S. session sent oil bulls packing. Not giving up, they’re attempting a comeback today. Geopolitical news to their rescue: the drone attacks on key Saudi pipelines. Emboldened by this tailwind, do the oil bulls stand a chance of reversing the tide of recent declines?
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely. We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months. Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall. The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275.
We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves. In both cases, we issued these market calls well over 60 days prior to the move actually taking place. The accuracy of these calls can be attributed to our proprietary price modeling solutions as well as the skill and techniques of our research team. Don’t mind us while we take a few seconds to take credit for some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Defense Spending Is Recession Proof - Defense Dividend Stocks / Companies / US Military
By: Robert_Ross
We’ve recently got some bad news about Social Security.
A new report says the program will cost more than it takes in by 2020. By 2035, its back-up trust fund will also run dry.
This makes sense: America is greying.
We’re having fewer children, living longer, and wages are growing at a slower pace.
That means there are fewer workers, those workers are making less money, and they’re supporting more retirees.
When Social Security was introduced in 1935, there were 42 workers for every retiree. Today, there are only 2.9.
And that number is set to drop to 1 within the next decade.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In PART I of this report we talked about and showed you the charts of the Hang Seng and DAX index charts and what is likely to unfold. In today’s report here we touch on the US markets. As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts this year, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. For example, the 2000 election of George W. Bush prompted a very mild price rotation in 1999~2000. This was likely because the transition from Clinton to Bush II was not overly contentious. The 2008 election of Barrack Obama was a moderately contested election cycle and happened at the time of the biggest credit market collapse in modern history – thus, the markets were well on their way lower 12+ months before the elections. The 2012 election cycle showed moderate price rotation as it was a highly contested election event in the US. The 2015-16 election event was highly contested as well and the price rotation near this time appears longer and deeper than the 2012 event.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Will the Transitory Inflation Turn into a Tailwind for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Chair Powell claims that subdued inflation is caused by transitory factors. Does the recent data confirms his views? And just how transitory is the new tariff rate on $200bn Chinese imports? Will we see a creep higher in inflation about to lift the gold prices?
CPI Edges Up
At the post-FOMC press conference in May, Jerome Powell said that some transitory factors could be responsible for muted inflationary pressure. The latest data seems to support his view that the recent slowdown in inflation was temporary.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
In a recent edition of Credit Bubble Bulletin, Doug Noland, the long-time critic of contemporary monetary policy, writes about the odd times in which we live from a financial perspective. “Such a precarious time in history,” he laments. “So much crazy talk has drowned out the reasonable. Deficits don’t matter, so why not a trillion or two for infrastructure? Our federal government posted a $691 billion deficit through the first six months of the fiscal year – running 15% above the year-ago level. Yet no amount of supply will ever impact Treasury prices – period. A Federal Reserve governor nominee taking a shot at ‘growth phobiacs’ within the Fed’s ‘temple of secrecy’, while saying growth can easily reach 3 to 4% (5% might be a ‘stretch’). Larry Kudlow saying the Fed might not raise rates again during his lifetime. Little wonder highly speculative global markets have become obsessed with the plausible.”
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
We had warned you about the miners’ bluff and we hope that you heeded it. Gold is still testing the neck level of the head-and-shoulders pattern, but silver is already back at its 2019 lows, while miners broke decisively below them. It may seem that the miners have declined enough and that a rebound is imminent from these levels. Should you hold your breath? Are we on a doorstep of a tradable rebound, or it ain’t here just yet?
To answer that, let’s turn to two analytical gems that have served us so well in the past. Not once, but many times.
We would like to point your attention to two factors that confirm that the next move lower is going to be significant. Yes, we know that you already know that as we provided myriads of details beforehand, but looking at the situation from a fresh perspective and seeing new signals makes it easier to be patient before the move gathers real momentum.
The first of them is the analysis of the silver stocks, and the second is the analysis of the popularity of 2 key search phrases for the gold market. Let’s start with the former.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
As cryptocurrency wallets become more popular, will cryptocurrencies replace traditional payments? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Umer_Mahmood
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
How US Debt Will Reach $40 Trillion by 2025 / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Harry_Dent
Smart people are worried about out deficit. They should be.Never mind the chaos around the world (like mass shootings, terrorist bombings, Armageddon marches, etc. ad infinitum), it was recently report that Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, is “doubly concerned” about the level of global debt. She was speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference last week, where she explained why excessive debt is going to become a serious problem for developed and developing countries alike.
In case you’re wondering – I had to look it up – the Milken Institute is a research driven, non-partisan think tank that develops policy initiatives aimed at increasing economic growth to improve the standard of living for people across the globe.
I assure you. The levels of global and U.S. debt are way beyond concerning. They’re also way beyond being repayable.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
U.S. markets have had a bad week. After reaching all-time highs recently – the Dow at 26,656.39 on April 23 (not quite new high), the S&P 500 at 2,945.83 on April 30, and the Nasdaq at 8,164 on May 3 – they’ve spent the last three days in the red. Monday, the Dow shed as much as 1.8% before pulling back to close only slightly lower. On Tuesday it had bled 1.8% by the close. The Nasdaq dropped 2.2% during trading before clawing some of that back. It ended trading on Tuesday 2% down.
In fact, the Dow had its worst day yesterday since January 3.
From the sounds of it, investors are unhappy with The Donald’s China trade deal tweets on Sunday. Really, they could have chosen any issue at hand – there are so many – for a reason to correct, but a correction was due regardless… because a pause is needed before the final blow-off rally in my Dark Window scenario.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Breaking Down Today’s Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Rodney_Johnson
I recently had dinner with my extended family. Afterwards, my parents mentioned they were surprised at how expensive the meal had been. It was a nice restaurant, but nothing fancy. It worked out to roughly $50 apiece, before tip. As we left, we separately climbed into our newish cars, which all cost more than $40,000. My brother-in-law’s pickup tops out over $50,000.But don’t worry, the government tells us, there’s not much inflation.
We could have chosen a cheaper restaurant, and less expensive cars, which is exactly the point the government tries to make…
The government wants us accustomed to the chained consumer price index (CPI), where prices move higher and we’re chained to a falling standard of living.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
eBook - Greatest Tool for Trading? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Classic Pitfalls for Inexperienced Traders / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were gaining on Friday following a lower opening of the trading session and the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 index extended its downtrend before bouncing off and closing 0.4% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just correction within a downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.4% on Friday, after bouncing off their new lows as investors’ sentiment improved despite an ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 index retraced the whole of its April’s advance. It currently trades 2.4% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,890-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865. The support level is also at around 2,835-2,850, marked by April the 1st daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Why Rising Living Standard in China Offers Global Hope / Politics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
China’s 70-Year Anniversary As living standard rises in China, its global contribution continues to increase. And that means potential for growth, poverty reduction and prosperity in emerging and developing world - new hope.
When Chairman Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949, the Chinese people could finally begin to leave behind a century of colonial humiliation and start building a new life.
What remains so poorly understood is how dire were the conditions on that extraordinary day, seven decades ago. While China had sustained its triumph, Chinese living standard was barely 5 percent relative to the United States.
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate term correction has started. Can’t tell yet, if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com